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Comment by anm89 | Hacker News Reader

For how long? I've seen estimates claiming that at the rate we are depleting the major shale areas the new glut of shale wells will go into a steep production decline around 2024-26.

I dont have all the data but from what I've heard this is pretty temporary.

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I’m hoping the transition to electric vehicles will be in full swing by that point. While we use oil for more than passenger cars if the decline in demand could more or less match the reduced supply it would be ideal.

In two to four years? I'm sorry but that's not realistic. It will be bigger than it is now. But not 1000% bigger. Probably not 100% bigger.

Almost certainly more than 100% bigger in two to four years, if Gartber predicts 50% growth for 2022-2021 alone. And many project more.

What’s more, the growth will likely pick up each year as more and better EVs become available, and more people start considering them as a real alternative.

What percentage of consumers purchase new cars on a < 5 year basis? People who take out leases do, so there could be an uptick of these folks getting into EVs, but the majority of existing car owners aren't likely to hop over just to get on the EV train, I don't think, and the second hand car market is / will continue to be massive. I can't see a significant decline in gas vehicles for a decade or better, probably likely two before a significant portion of gas vehicles are off the road.

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