> Like all leveraged bets, if it doesn't beat inflation you get destroyed by interest. If we have a crisis like 2008 the leverage works against you.
This isn't actually relevant because mortgage interest, minus tax credits, is well below inflation. The base case on a 30 year fixed is that you end up ahead just by having the loan.
> That is not what I am talking about - I mean the median U.S. home. That's not quite as strong of a case for investment. I'd suggest most buy a home for lifestyle first, and maybe at best a forced savings account second.
I'm not sure there is a "median US home" because it's super multi-modal. There's an urban homes, suburban homes and exurban/rural homes. Each will have a different risk/reward profile.
> Now what happened this past year is rather peculiar and it's going to be interesting to see how that unfolds.
Indeed.
By the way, all this is to say, I also do not think that buying a home a guaranteed win by any stretch. You have maintenance/upkeep costs, insurance costs, potentially HOA dues. You lose a lot of flexibility. And potentially most importantly, you lose out on the opportunity cost associated with your down payment. Plus, you have a lot more risk if the market moves against you. Returns are never guaranteed even if you're in a historically appreciating market.
There's some great calculators that cover all this to tell you if you should rent or own - and in my early 20s, the calculator rightly said I should not own, even though I was in an appreciating area. [1]
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-cal...