US DOE to offer $6B to keep struggling nuclear reactors online
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This is an interesting economic quirk I hadn’t thought about.
Solar energy is inherently variable as the sun rises and sets but also with weather changes. Nuclear is the opposite of variable, as it can’t be turned up or down quickly. Energy storage continues to be one of the big gaps in our clean energy strategy.
Chemical storage doesn't seem like it'd operate anywhere close to pump-hydro scale, but chemical storage will be a component of frequency-regulation, and maybe anything involving 30-minutes or less of storage. This is still useful, but pumped hydro is so much bigger than all other forms, that its hard to imagine an adequate replacement moving forward.
CAES looks promising. Still smaller than pumped hydro, but there's more geography that works with it.
What I do know is that the older reactors weren't really the type that could "spin up" or "spin down". Control rods always existed on nuclear power plants, even the oldest designs.
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In any case: "Connecting" those rods up to a computer so that the reaction can get hotter or run cooler would be the basis for variable power output.
This has been done literally forever. Why do you think nuclear plants run at 100% capacity 24/7?
The primary reason would be economic. Fuel costs IIRC are really low but capital-expenses (especially safety engineering / politics / convincing the people nearby that the plant is safe) is so costly.
When you have cheap-fuel but expensive machines, it makes sense to run closer to 100%. If you have expensive fuel but cheap machines (ex: Gas turbines), it makes sense to run in a "peaker" fashion.
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That being said: I've heard that older nuclear plants are "baseload" designs, in that they _CANNOT_ turn off or feasibly regulate their power output.
I mean, they obviously "can" turn off, they all have control rods for safety. But they're clearly not using them to regulate the power output.
No, you heard wrong. They're often the last or second to last type of plant that's called upon to alter supply to match demand, but they don't run 100% 24/7.
Yes, fissonable elements in the fuel are consumed in a manner that's proportional to output. So if you run at 25% output your fuel needs to be changed (example) every 4 years, if you run at 100% output your fuel needs to be changed every year.
But it is not 100% proportional, for example, 15% of the plant's output is required simply to run the plant's accessories. So it is advantageous to run at 100% output if you can.
The rods soak up neutrons. the reactor is designed so that its power would increase if the rods weren't there. The rods are what keeps the k == 1 (basically how the neutrons change in time. K == 1 is no change).
So don't think of the rods as a throttle valve in your car, i.e. this throttle angle corresponds to this much torque and therefore power. The rods are best thought of as controlling the rate of change of reactor power.
This is why the reactor is built so that the neutrons increase when fully withdrawn - because you have to start it! If the reactor is being started, the rods are withdrawn until the power wanted is achieved. Then the rods are lowered.
Note this is a far more complicated problem; this is a very serious operation because at the very start, except for your neutron starter, you only have "prompt" neutrons that can very quickly cause an increase of power. Once the reactor has stabilized the "nuclear waste" inside it releases non-prompt neutrons that are part of the neutron budget and are easier to control.
So, while waste in the reactor is being accumulated and while the fuel burns up, the position of the rods to achieve stable power changes! Furthermore these changes are different in different parts of the reactor so each rod is individually changed (actually I think there are two sets of rods, not all of them are individually actuated)
> actually I think there are two sets of rods, not all of them are individually actuated
commercial reactors have 5-10 “banks” arranged symmetrically, although only a subset of those are typically used during power operations [1], so you weren’t far off. Rods are rarely controlled individually, the only case that comes to mind is for identifying and then limiting the reactivity in a “leaker” fuel bundle (one where the cladding has been breached by a foreign object, so it is leaching contamination into the coolant - this is undesirable but expected).
[1]: edit for more information: PWRs and BWRs differ substantially here:
PWRs primarily use boric acid in the coolant to limit reactivity at the beginning of a fuel cycle, which is diluted out over the course of the cycle. One bank of rods is used for fine reactivity control. This gives them a generally even power distribution across the reactor.
BWRs primarily use their control rods, so start the fuel cycle with substantially more inserted. A significant part of designing the fuel layout for a cycle is also designing the control rod patterns to be used over the cycle, to control excess reactivity while maximizing fuel use. Power distribution across the reactor can vary wildly, so it’s a much more challenging engineering problem.
I just remembered I actually have a detailed visualization illustrating (modeled) power distribution in a BWR. You can easily see where control rods are inserted and how that has shifted the power around. https://www.kmr.me/posts/coremap/#content
American nuclear submarines use them, as does France's power generating reactors.
>This is an interesting economic quirk I hadn’t thought about.
this "quirk" should be a non-issue with a functioning energy market. if renewables are flooding the market with cheap electricity, but only during the day, and there's a massive deficit during the night, then the deficit would cause prices to go up and make the remaining generating capacity (natural gas, nuclear) more profitable.
Only if you assume the demand stays constant, but it doesn't; Demand is usually the highest when PV output is also the highest, the middle of the day when everybody is at work, using all kinds of electricity drawing machines.
Especially if these plants produced a lot of pollution that was also not accounted for.
For contrast, here are the stats for Germany [1] and the consumption peaks during the day contrast very well with the night consumption.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TV_pickup
[1] https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electric...
Not quite, the mismatch in timing between solar generation and energy demand has been called the "duck curve" [1][2]. Peak demand is normally in the evening when people are done with work [3].
[1] https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/confronting-duck-curve-...
In California, demand peaks are around 6-8pm, well past the peak of solar production. This disparity has a name, the "Duck Curve". You can view the near real-time power demand on the CAISO[1] website. Your region may have a similar way to see live demand.
Look at ~2001/02 -- ENRON...
My energy bill went from $100/mo to over $1,000/mo for NO REASON..
My power was shut off in february because my regular energy bill literally went up 10X during that period (no change in use) -- and I was ~25 and it was the first downturn, and while I owned my house - I had to borrow money from parents to pay the fucking power bill due to enron shenanigans... (san jose ca, so not even super cold/winter conditions)
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Look at fuel prices right now - same fuckery about today: When the war started and fuel went to $90/barrel - the gas pump first time ever went to $3/gallon...
Look at fuel prices today $92/barrel --
$5.19 at the pump.
Yeah - FN BS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_ele...
20X increase in energy costs at that time
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ELI5:
While you're speaking that SPOT crude remains relativistic constant/regular over time, may you please explain if this is true, what the cost increases at the pump are directly related to?
When I began driving, the spot price tracking you mention was the same, but the pump price was $.99/gallon for gas...
So, I admit I do not have an understanding of the reasons behind the price at the pump, but shouldn't that price match the same graph?
If not, please ELI5 how it now apparently costs 5X the cost to deliver gas to the pump?
Shouldnt any company be seeking economies at scale and more efficient everything - especially in OIL/GAS where they are really reliant on compute for the future success of their industry and the power of compute is 10,000X more powerful today than in 1990?
Yet - the pump always goes up...
(I'll go ahead and you're going to excuse it as "the cost of doing business/expenses have gone up)
If true, then why isn't toilet paper $50/roll? Trees are not going to replenish themselves at the same rate as our consumption... so shouldn't toilet paper be super expensive?
What is your opinion on the following video on the origins of oil and the origin of the term "Fossil Fuel" coined by Rockefeller:
1. your own article lists multiple non-eron related reasons for the crisis
2. AFAIK energy markets are the norm. state regulators might regulate the rates that retail customers pay, but the utilities are buying the electricity from the free market. Therefore the supply/demand dynamic when it comes to prices should already be factored in, which was why I was confused it was initially brought up.
>While you're speaking that SPOT crude remains relativistic constant/regular over time, may you please explain if this is true, what the cost increases at the pump are directly related to?
helpful page from eia.gov: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
>When I began driving, the spot price tracking you mention was the same, but the pump price was $.99/gallon for gas...
obvious question: were you in the same state? taxes are baked into the gas price, so if you moved from texas to california, it wouldn't be surprising that your gas price went up for no reason.
>So, I admit I do not have an understanding of the reasons behind the price at the pump, but shouldn't that price match the same graph?
I went a step further and compared crude oil prices to retail gas prices (available from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm), and found that the ratio hovers at around 2, with that ratio being higher in the 80s/90s than today. While there's some fluctuation, it's nowhere close to the amounts implied by your anecdotes. Speaking of which, I find your anecdotes impossible to substantiate. Which state did you live in? When was "the war"?
>If true, then why isn't toilet paper $50/roll? Trees are not going to replenish themselves at the same rate as our consumption...
I'm not sure where you're getting that conclusion from, but pulpwood trees are effectively farmed. The growth cycles are longer than something like corn, but they're still planted/replenished at approximately the same rate they're cut. The deforestation stories you hear are largely from developing countries cutting down forest for development purposes.
Thus, I am happy to capitulate and learn from your insights as well.
So while the maths ratio sounds small... the Human ratio is much greater based on the buying power of a dollar-vs-salary of the avg buyer...
so while it may seem one-way, the reality for the buyer is much different...
Here is an anecdote:
My GF has worked at The French Laundry for several years...
The top rest in the world according to some...
She lives in Sonoma Ca and it costs her $5.19 per gallon of gas. She drives an modern car with good gas mileage.
She pays $70 to 3/4 fill her car and travels ~30 miles one way to commute to a job at the top restaurant in the world which pays her $12/hour.
The bill says "Service Included" which leads guests to believe that "TIP IS INCLUDED" -- and so people that pay $75,000 for a meal (including wine) often DONT TIP...
Because they believe that "Service" == "Tip" NOPE.
The point is, that her commute costs her ~half a weeks actual pay to pay for fuel.
The point being that we THINK that the ratio --> relation to buying power has been constant, or even better these days with higher wages, the reality in the wallet is not such.
Even with a great job, at one of the best companies in the world (supposedly) -- She still struggles with just filling her car with gas.
Fuck big oil.
>"Matt Crozat, senior director of policy development for the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), said the industry is "encouraged" by the creation of the credit program, but is still pushing for more permanent economic support."
The Nuclear Energy Institute looks like it's an just industry trade group that likely retains some powerful lobbyists.
I don't think there's a future where "energy policy" (a euphemism for subsidies/lobbying/permitting) ceases to exist.
If nuclear power is the least-worst of the industry trade groups, it should count for something.
However, it might behoove us to consider the wisdom in allowing the whims of "energy policy" to vaporize twenty-year, $10 billion infrastructure projects.
There's no reason prices should ever be negative... except for a lack of power sinks. If there were intermittent hydrogen production facilities, or direct air capture of carbon + a carbon market that rewarded that, the intermittency accounting quirk would correct itself.
That could be nice. Maybe if the DOE money helped with capital to build a direct air carbon capture system. Then the nuclear plants can sell credits to oil/gas based energy companies similar to how like Tesla sells its credits to other car manufacturers.
UK demand in winter is nearly 2x higher than summer (and will grow even more with switching gas heating to heat pumps), at the same time solar output is ~10% of that at summer. Wind energy is higher but is unpredictable and in very cold snaps (when demand is greatest) tends to result in very low wind output.
This problem is the biggest one to solve (and not sure how solvable it is). In essence it's possible to smooth out daily output with renewables, but annual output is very difficult. You are talking TWhs of storage requirement.
You might be misled by the apparent absence of installations for hydrogen grid storage, but understand that as long as natural gas is being used, it makes little sense to use hydrogen instead. That doesn't mean hydrogen can't work, it just means that natural gas (without CO2 charges) is for the moment cheaper.
Factories for iron-air storage are being built today, to start supplying grid-scale storage in 2023. Everybody knows the demand is there and will remain there, so there is plenty of capital for anything known to work. But it takes time to build out.
After costs shake out, build-out will concentrate on the cheapest alternatives, but everything already built will still work, and still be used, because the cost is capital cost. It will be a long time before the storage market is saturated and storage providers have to compete on prices.
BTW, if you object to hydrogen on these grounds, you must also object to nuclear on these grounds, and more strongly. This is especially the case if you imagine a nuclear powered world economy. You need to imagine a jump in technology more radical than for hydrogen storage -- either massive scale up of seawater uranium extraction (many orders of magnitude, from gram scale to megaton scale) or use of breeder reactors instead of burner reactors.
They all need enough storage to not need interconnection, and then rely on interconnection to reduce cost and drawdown from storage.
Probably the most effective use for African solar energy production will be synthesis of hydrocarbons to be delivered by supertanker to high latitudes in winter, and for aircraft fuel.
[1]: https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pr...
All sources of power can have engineering challenges. Like the recent Texas blackouts where equipment related to the gas supply stopped due to the cold weather.
Common, but not the same. Nuclear power work efficiency (30-40%?) is typically lower than a gas turbine plant (60%?). So electrical watt for electrical watt, the nukes need far more cooling water.
Its something I've said before, you overbuild nukes, and use the excess capacity for water desalination, jet fuel production, CO2 recapture, or any other energy intensive process which creates a product that can be easily stored.
Nuclear energy is basically free once you have built the plant.
Maybe an interesting way to do this would be to give "power" grants to local students or universities - applications could be sent in with proposals and test projects and then those who are accepted would get access to free power during excess times and maybe also some kind of warehouse like workspace / nearby location. Could be a huge educational benefit and drive innovation.
It is a much, much better use of capital to build the others out, and the solar and wind, than to spend the money trying to bring those ramshackle contraptions out of retirement.
It used to be not-too-dishonest when compared to coal, but always was compared to hydro. Now we have solar and wind, besides.
Shocking.
Obviously, everyone who can store energy maxes out their battery banks during these times of negative-cost energy. The reason why prices are negative is because the sum of market participants still has a shortage of storage.
We have a shortage of storage because the amount of energy our grid uses is on a behemoth scale, barely comprehensible. Dozens-of-GW-hr pumped hydro stations fill up their storage to the brim on a constant basis.
That said, I'm not saying it'll completely solve the problem- just increase efficiency and reduce the problem.
As the fraction of capacity increases, the need for storage starts to rise. So, now we see big storage projects breaking ground, to come on line in the next few years. The amount of storage finally built will be astonishing to contemplate.
I am fully supportive of using whatever technology that gets us to a zero carbon grid as quickly as possible. And right now the most advanced research in this area is suggesting that renewables + storage is our best bet.
But because generating capacity is now so cheap, we can afford expensive storage construction. Storage typically has very low operating cost, but is just now expensive to build. So, it will be cheaper to build storage later, but anything built this year will continue operating.
As for cost of delivered energy from solar, there is a final reduction that can still be obtained even if the cost/watt were to plateau immediately: extension of the lifespan of the system. This could be obtained by, over time, identifying and addressing all the degradation modes of the components of the system.
But I also think you are mis-applying a mental model about the cost of manufactured goods to the cost of solar plant development. In a competitive free market, the cost of manufactured goods should eventually be reduced to a sum of their inputs plus any profit.
But solar development is inherently an exercise in value capture. The project developers are trying to capture as much value as possible for their investors. The only thing that matters is that solar stays competitive in the energy market. As long as that happens, someone somewhere in the value chain can try and capture more value as other costs decrease. For example, what is stopping land owners from raising rents for solar projects? Right now, land is relatively cheap because there is not a lot of competition for it. But there are only so many parcels that are near transmission lines with good geographical features, and I fully expect land prices to increase as solar penetration increases. But this is really just a guess.
If you are interested in current project cost breakdowns, figure 30 in this report does a pretty good job[1]. Module costs were the primary driver of cost reductions in the last 20 years. But they now account for only 40% of total project costs. So even if module prices fell by 50%, that would only result in a 20% decline in total project cost. While a 20% drop in prices would be nice, I don't think it really changes the math much with respect to nuclear (the math is already overwhelmingly in favor of solar).
Also, I do agree that the average lifespan of these systems are going to be much longer than 20 years and that has not been priced in. But I don't think that is going to really change things anytime soon. Financial models and risk models are incredibly crude instruments. Using them to model even 5 to 10 years in the future is already extending them well beyond what they were designed for. But we have to put an end date on these models because at some point every project is going to cease to exist. And 20 years is what the banks like, so that is what we use.
I will note that there have been past attempts to call a floor in the cost of PV, for example the period from 2002-2007. That was not the floor.
Current cost breakdowns are nice, but don't show that costs can't be further reduced.
> For example, what is stopping land owners from raising rents for solar projects?
What stops them is the enormous quantity of land that's available. In the US, for example, land can be < 1% of the cost of a utility-scale PV installation.
A good analogy is landlords. Why do they raise rents instead of decrease rents? Because they want to profit, and because their costs increase over time due to inflation, and because the market will let them.
Here is another fun one. What happens if/when interests rates go up? We are at record low rates, and most solar projects are debt financed? How will higher rates impact project costs? The obvious answer there is that costs will go up.
> In the US, for example, land can be < 1% of the cost of a utility-scale PV installation.
As I mentioned, that is the case now, but it will likely not be in the future. The number of sites close to existing transmission lines, with good geographical features requiring minimal grading, low flood risk, low wildfire risk, low hurricane risk, etc... are going to diminish quickly as saturation increases. And when it comes to land, costs can go from reasonable to painful real quickly.
I am certainly rooting for costs to go down, as I think that is better for humanity. But I am not betting on it. Why do you think they are going to go down? I don't think you have made a good case for lower costs other than that is what has happened in the past.
So in total, Nuclear is just as reliant on grid inter-connectors as solar/wind to perform optimally.
The difference is that solar/wind are sooooo much cheaper you can now build solar/wind/interconnectors/storage and still come in cheaper than nuclear. No country in the world ever figured out how to build out nuclear power efficiently and in the last ten years the decline in solar/wind/storage costs has been astronomical.
That's why Nuclear is going nowhere. If we were to give storage plants subsidies at a level with what nuclear receives, there wouldn't even be a discussion about this.
If wind doesn't blow over Europe, you can have 15% overall capacity factor.
Wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydro, storage. Plus some nuclear if it is already built. That is what folks are recommending. If new build nuclear can compete, then great. But right now it can't, and models show we can get there without it.
Unclear what you are basing that on. Nuclear energy has by far the highest capacity factor of any energy source and its not even close:
https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliab...
>...The difference is that solar/wind are sooooo much cheaper
The levelized cost for residential rooftop solar is higher than nuclear, but that cost doesn't matter?
https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2020
https://www.statista.com/statistics/493797/estimated-leveliz...
Modern society is dependent on 100% reliable power. Even that relatively small blackout in Texas caused:
>...At least 246 people were killed directly or indirectly,[3] with some estimates as high as 702 killed as a result of the crisis.[4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis
If we were to rely just on solar and wind, the low capacity factor would likely require massive grid storage. The only large scale grid storage we have at this point is pumped hydro and that isn't scalable. For example, one estimate is that for Germany to rely on solar and wind would require about 6,000 pumped storage plants which is literally 183 times their current capacity.
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/144985/1/cesifo1_wp5...
If making more grid storage was cheap and easy, we would have built it decades ago.
Overbuilding could alleviate some of this, particularly the natural variations in seasonal energy output, but obviously this would be a multiplier to the cost and it won't get more power from solar at night, etc.
As Bill Gates said in an interview: "…They have this statement that the cost of solar photovoltaic is the same as hydrocarbon’s. And that’s one of those misleadingly meaningless statements. What they mean is that at noon in Arizona, the cost of that kilowatt-hour is the same as a hydrocarbon kilowatt-hour. But it doesn’t come at night, it doesn’t come after the sun hasn’t shone, so the fact that in that one moment you reach parity, so what? The reading public, when they see things like that, they underestimate how hard this thing is. So false solutions like divestment or “Oh, it’s easy to do” hurt our ability to fix the problems. Distinguishing a real solution from a false solution is actually very complicated."
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/11/we-need...
Gates is investing in 4th gen nuclear and energy storage companies so he is at least putting his money where his mouth is. The goal should be to decarbonize the electrical grid while maintaining the reliability we depend upon.
We don't have storage because we have not needed storage. Now that we are starting to need storage, storage is being built out. It will take time to build out, but the scale will be astonishing because the demand for it is very predictable and stable.
Gates is investing in nukes because it can be very profitable to make them. Not so much, using them. But there will always be pigeons.
Kind of misleading to make a blanket statement like that since it obviously depends on what you are comparing. Consumer rooftop solar was, is, and will likely continue to be much more expensive than hydrocarbon. Solar at noon in Arizona in July is cheaper. Solar at 3:00 AM in Arizona in July doesn't exist. Solar + storage is right now pretty comparable to hydrocarbon prices.
>We don't have storage because we have not needed storage.
With daily and seasonable variations in demand and the need to shut down plants for maintenance, storage would always have been preferred to having to generally over build and running peaker plants, etc. So if it was cheap or easy, we would have built a lot more of it already. Though grid storage is absolutely needed to scale up intermittent sources.
>...It will take time to build out, but the scale will be astonishing because the demand for it is very predictable and stable.
Hope so.
>...Gates is investing in nukes because it can be very profitable to make them.
That is an uncharitable interpretation.
They're cheap on sunny windy days. On a cold frosty night solar and wind are very expensive.
Why? Couldn't we just go all in on nuclear?
- You'll need to manufacture terawatt hours of batteries anyway to replace all the internal combustion cars on the road, regardless of whether you charge those cars with nuclear electricity or renewable electricity.
- Nuclear power plants make for very expensive peak generating resources. They're only affordable for covering the minimum ("baseload") demand that is always there on the electrical grid.
Consider demand on California's CAISO grid. On a hot summer day like 2019-08-15 air conditioning pushes the peak demand over 44 gigawatts. On the same day, the early predawn load is 20 gigawatts lower at 24 gigawatts. And on a cool day like 2022-02-06, the minimum demand is down to 16 gigawatts while the whole day average is well below 23. You can use the date picker to look at "Demand trend" for different days here:
http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/index.html
Only ~16 gigawatts of generating output will definitely get consumed all the time, but you still need to plan for those hot days that need 44+ gigawatts. It's theoretically possible to build 45 GW of reactors and use the full capacity for just a few hours a year, but that's very expensive. It's much more economical to have only 16 GW of reactors and use other electricity sources to meet higher demand, but that's bad for the climate when "other sources" includes fossil fueled power plants like it currently does. Nuclear plus storage would be much more affordable than using 100% nuclear without storage, and it would be cleaner than using fossil fuel peakers.
or maybe a small datacenter next to every nuclear plant that is doing some fancy modeling to further improve nuclear power plants?
“The high operating and maintenance costs of running a reactor can make them uneconomical in some markets”
And “sometimes they operate at a loss”
They’re specifically talking about operational costs and excluding upfront costs.
"The gas, which would otherwise have been burned off, is instead routed to a bitcoin processor.
For years, oil and gas companies have struggled with the problem of what to do when they accidentally hit a natural gas formation while drilling for oil. Whereas oil can easily be trucked out to a remote destination, gas delivery requires a pipeline. If a drilling site is right next to a pipeline, they chuck the gas in and take whatever cash the buyer on the other end is willing to pay that day. But if it’s 20 miles from a pipeline, drillers often burn it off, or flare it. That is why you will typically see flames rising from oil fields.
The process reduces CO2-equivalent emissions by about 63% compared to continued flaring.."
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/15/conocophillips-is-selling-ex...
A better solution would be to interconnect the electricity grid with neighbouring grids. With sufficient size, time-dependent peaks and troughs would be smoothed out.
People like to make noise about the impact of mining the materials needed for solar. Well, what about the impact of mining and refining uranium?
Their cost of construction per GW is not competitive with wind and solar - it's typically thousands of euros per kw. Whereas wind and solar can go from construction to energy production (and carbon paypback) on a timescale of months, nukes take years to build.
>Well, what about the impact of mining and refining uranium?
I'd be willing to wager significant money that on a MW for MW basis, the environmental impact is higher for solar just due to the energy density alone.
While I agree with you in general, the amount of uranium needed to run a power plant should be orders of magnitude smaller than is necessary to build and equivalent solar farm
But I do worry about the 8g/m^2 of cadmium mounted on top of houses some of which will burn down.
The United Nations Economic Commission For Europe released a report in 2021 on the life cycle emissions (including construction, operation, and decommissioning) of various power generation options and found nuclear to be the lowest overall at 5.5 gCO2eq/kWh [1].
Both uranium mining and renewables mining have issues - I'm not going to debate or compare them because I don't know enough about the topic but due to the energy density of uranium I wouldn't be surprised if nuclear was better overall
Cost is the real issue - the cost and timescales of nuclear reactors are massive issues, and they are significantly worse short-term investments than wind and solar.
However, energy storage is not a solved problem, so until it is nuclear is not competing with wind and solar - it is competing with gas and coal, to which it has advantages in almost every category (excluding cost)
Do you have sources for this? I completely concur that nuclear energy is too expensive, problematic and by now much too late to help with the climate crisis, but from what I found it is quite competitive with wind and solar in total CO2 emissions per kwh of energy (the numbers I found were all between 5 and 25 gram Co2/kwh for these three, compared to >500 for any fossil alternative).
This makes sense to me since turbines and panels also need to be manufactured, transported and installed, after all...
Long term that cost will go down, but it's always going to make the calculation much less simple than it seems at first glance, solar might be the cheapest form of power at the moment, but it's not the cheapest single source to run an electricity grid by a wide margin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining#Seawater_recove...
The problem with nuclear is an example of why deregulation was stupid. As a society of electricity consumers, we are sitting on lawn chairs on a railroad track with an electric train approaching us. It's obvious to anyone with a pulse that electric cars are ramping up and will displace the current fleet, and equally obvious that that operating model (plug in your car at night) will increase base load requirements.
So because we've detached planning from electrical generation and distribution, we have 50 different sets of cartels optimizing for short term returns on the spot market. The various electrical shit-shows in California and Texas are like failed-state levels of dysfunction. North of NYC, electrical supply rates are up 50% because we turned off a massive reactor complex and replaced it with volatile natural gas. We're decommissioning nuclear at a point in time just before we need it, environmentalists were bought by gas extraction people and Wall St. accounting is very bad at dealing with capital assets with 50-100 year lifecycles.
If you think about it the "energy storage" problem is absurd. Installing millions of inefficient distributed battery cells in potentially millions of buildings, for want of adequate electrical generation is beyond dumb, and the scale of waste and wasted value is staggering. It is solely a byproduct of a market designed to maximize producer profit.
This might be true in California but peak in Poland and many other places is after sun sets.
West facing panels help, but the ROI isn't as good without variable energy pricing.
It’s insane that the environmentalist movement is inadvertently supporting the fossil fuel industry due to their traditional stance on nuclear. Modern civilisation requires reliable base load and nuclear seems like the only viable option which satisfies both the reliability and globally accepted environmentally sustainable goals.
What? I don't think there are many environmentalists who "don't like rural people" and have a problem with pickup trucks used where they're appropriate ( like on a farm). In a country like the US, they're often abused as a suburban vehicle, which is a preposterous waste which deserves railing on against.
You can then safely lump that caricature in the same bucket as people with actual policy proposals, and ignore the latter outright.
Conversely, there's a lot of overlap between environmentalists and people who like to go outside and get off the beaten path. Driving in remote areas a lot pretty much necessitates having a truck. I've never heard any animosity from environmentalists towards truck owners who actually use their truck for truck things.
Even in this example alone you neglected to consider the number of trucks that are used to tow something. Say you need (or want!) to tow a heavy trailer once a month or every other month. Should you buy one vehicle that can do this, and then use it to commute 90% of the time, or should you buy two vehicles, and let one sit around unused most of the time?
Now what about the person that needs to haul some things? Surely a small trailer + SUV is superior to a truck? Not so fast: gotta store that trailer and be comfortable with it. My guess is for 95% of people, a truck for utility purposes is far superior.
Finally, newer trucks are actually surprisingly efficient. I just got 22mpg 360 miles round trip in my full ton pickup truck. Been shopping for minivans, aside from the rare hybrid minivan, they only get around 26mpg on highway.
Or maybe rent a vehicle if it's only for towing once every other month.. Unless renting costs upwards of 1k, it'd be many years before buying makes sense for usage once every other month.
e.g. I have a small fiesta - that's (nearly) perfect for my general use case, which is me commuting on my own, maybe a friend or two going out for lunch or whatever.
But a friend down the road has a jeep, I borrow that for camping (when I'm not going with them anyway) - same with "bulk" costco trips, or stopping by a landscaping store for garden stuff.
That makes it easier for him to justify keeping the jeep, especially as I'm not the only person who regularly takes advantage of it, while keeping costs down (I pay in gas and beer, no rental corporation skimming profits off the top).
I've been using carnextdoor.com.au for years when ever my motorbikes weren't enough to get around.
But if you're renting a car even for 1-2 days a week, it quickly cost as much it would have had for running costs and purchasing a car outright. The numbers below are all AUD.
I'm about to pick up a new Ute (Dmax XTerrain) thats going to cost $238 per week over 5 years for finance. With running costs on top of that I'm budgeting for $400 per week.
That's a rental car for 1.5-2 days.
Carnextdoor and rentals made sense when I didn't need a car weekly, just monthly. The new Ute is relatively inexpensive to run (4 cylinder turbo diesel), it's big, big compared to cars from Europe, not big for the US I'm sure.
But for me it definitely made sense to get a 4x4 that services all my needs rather than a 4x4 and another small car.
Admittedly I go camping a lot so my needs are a little different. And I have dogs now so going camping on my motorbikes isn't much of an option now.
On the other hand, commuting through a city can be done just as well or better by a car in every sense. 22mpg is terrible mileage compared to a modern car and the fact that it seems good reinforces my point of how wasteful it is to commute in a truck.
Also, 22mpg efficient. You gotta be kidding me. You should getting at least 35mpg before you can call yourself efficient. A Vauxhall Zafira (MPV) can do 41mpg. A smart car can do 67mpg.
The real problem is energy production. So completely asinine to push for fleet electrification while base load is provided by coal and natural gas.
I think the answer here is more general support for the poor. Progressive taxation, public transport, etc. That's politically difficult in the US of course. But it's surely the solution.
> The real problem is energy production.
That and energy consumption. IIRC the US consumes ~2x the energy per capita compared to Europe. Yes, we need greener production, but we could also do a lot by reducing consumptions.
Everything disproportionately harms poor people. It's practically the definition. To be poor is to have little power. So for any X you have less to bring to bear to avoid it.
The lifetime amount of fuel/electricity used by a vehicle generally accounts for only half of the total energy. The other half is in it's manufacturing and disposal/recycling.
And there's additional lost efficiency than just the mileage, because you're using twice the embedded energy and presumably aren't doubling the amount of driving you're doing.
Maybe rentals or sharing schemes work in some cases, but they present their own inefficiencies, like less than perfect allocation, and transferring vehicles back and forth for each switch.
But for the majority of cases, it's much more environmentally friendly to own one single vehicle that meets all of your needs, even if it's relatively inefficient.
The most efficient vehicle for any particular person is usually the one that's already been built. (Which is why cash for clunkers was actually a bailout with negative environmental impacts, despite its branding of improved efficiency.)
So it's additional supply of both material and embedded energy that otherwise could go to someone else, or wouldn't need to be spent until you were sending you old car off to be salvaged.
There's a time value to it as well, just like with amortized financials.
Think of it this way: if everyone used that strategy, we'd have twice as big of a vehicle market, requiring twice as much material and energy.
Even if you expect each vehicle to last twice as long, it all has to be paid for with capital costs up front. Both your cash out of pocket, as well as manufacturing capacity and energy/resource extraction.
You might get effective use efficiency of 50% for twice as long, but the overall cost in dollars, energy, and emissions is much greater because of amortization.
They focus on ideal outcomes over what we can realistically accomplish - I've had plenty of discussions where people just ignore the trillions in infrastructure we have baked into steel and concrete, as well as people habits and lifestyle - folks honestly seem to think that with enough political will you can just turn all of that off in 2-5 years.
As with everything in society, we didn't get here overnight, and turning a vast ship takes time.
The problems of pollution, climate change, etc are real. The science is clear.
Please don't make up an imaginary bad actor who has bad motivations for why they want to solve or improve some of these problems. This is a rhetoric device designed to distract people from the problems and solutions by getting them to dislike, distrust or hate the people trying to help.
Hydro?
The environmentalist movement, anti-nuke section, had little to nothing to do with the downfall of nuclear power. It was always and only economics, nothing else contributed to this. Nuclear is very complicated and thus very expensive, and this has nothing to do with regulations. Everything about generating power from nuclear is just expensive. If there was any opportunity to turn a profit with nuclear power, and I mean even the slightest margin of profit, you could not keep investors away, nor prevent nuclear power plants being built in every county in the country. There is a false narrative that supporters of nuclear energy seem to insist on perpetuating, which is that if the idiots would stop being so irrationally afraid of nuclear, we could have cheap, clean energy. This is a completely false position. The scardies have nothing to do with it. It is all and only economics that is killing nuclear power, and nothing else whatsoever enters into it.
I was all for nuclear power myself before I started seeing how infeasible it was to get us to carbon neutral with them. I'm still fine with any new nuclear power plants that want to be built but it looks like pretty much no one wants to invest in them anymore anyway.
"The cost of generating solar power ranges from $36 to $44 per megawatt hour (MWh), the WNISR said, while onshore wind power comes in at $29–$56 per MWh. Nuclear energy costs between $112 and $189."
"Capital flows reflect that trend. In 2018, China invested $91 billion in renewables but just $6.5 billion in nuclear."[1]
"Nuclear power plant construction costs—mainly materials, labor, and engineering—rose by 185 percent between 2000 and 2007. More recently, costs have been increasing even faster: In mid-March, Progress Energy informed state regulators that the twin 1,100 MW nuclear plants it intends to build in Florida would cost $14 billion, which “triples estimates the utility offered little more than a year ago.”
Jim Harding, former direc tor of power planning and forecasting for Seattle City Light, estimates that nuclear plants constructed today would provide electricity at between 12 and 17 cents per kilowatt-hour. To put this cost into perspective, the average U.S. electricity price in 2006 was 8.9 cents per kWh, and well-placed wind turbines can produce electricity for less than 5 cents per kWh."[2]
"Study claims that investment in a new 1GW nuclear power plant leads to average losses of approximately 4.8 billion euros." [3]
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower/nucle...
[2]: https://www.americanprogress.org/article/10-reasons-not-to-i...
[3]: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/07/24/nuclear-a-poor-invest...
Sadly, unless our future energy requirements have been vastly underestimated, economics is also going to make commercial-grade fusion unattainable. Like fission, it's development ultimately requires the vast sums only wealthy nations can provide. But even once fusion is achieved beyond breaking even, only those same wealthy nations will be able to pay, more likely massively subsidize, before any fusion power plant could dream about existing.
This is why I think society should abandon centralizing power generation and require all structures to generate they're own green power. While massively less efficient than centralized power generation and distribution, with clean energy generation like solar & wind, and necessary optimizations such as more efficient climate control, we can afford to be less efficient.
There was never a deregulation that happened. In fact deregulation is what's needed to revive nuclear power. Competition in the power market is illegal in most states.
Similar to the charter school scam, the scrappy upstarts bonded out lots of debt to buy up power plants and subsequently became a powerful lobby to keep their cartel tight.
Some of the remaining municipal energy co-op utilities were exempted from deregulation, and all of them have lower cost structures.
I know Massachusetts is a similar story, not sure about others.
Most of them are structured like real estate syndicates. It’s basically like building a strip mall or franchise hotel, except you have a captive customer and can leave the local taxpayer holding the bag. The educational mission is mostly a secondary concern. There are exceptions.
N.b. I don’t have kids, so this is mostly academic for me, no pun intended
As a result of that deregulation, the grid is often optimizing for cost, instead of reliability, which can lead to problems. Saving 5% on your power bill is great, but it's less great if the consequence is, say, not having any power one week of the year.
In the US, opposition to nuclear energy is more like opposition to homeless shelters - people don't want the plants near them. I don't think environmentlists are that powerful politically as to significantly impact the trajectory of nuclear power policies in the US, otherwise, they would have the power to significantly impact climate change policies too.
Besides, what I have seen is that environmentalists are pretty divided in term of nuclear energy. There are strong opponents like green peace and Sierra clubs, there are strong supporters and there are many who are ambivalent. This further reduces their political power as a group.
I think nuclear energy supporters should stop blaming environmentalists as they are pretty much non-factor if they want nuclear power.
> Nuclear power is dirty, dangerous and expensive. Say no to new nukes. > > Nuclear energy has no place in a safe, clean, sustainable future. Nuclear energy is both expensive and dangerous, and just because nuclear pollution is invisible doesn’t mean it’s clean. Renewable energy is better for the environment, the economy, and doesn’t come with the risk of a nuclear meltdown.
The Sierra Club's [2]:
> The Sierra Club continues to oppose construction of any new commercial nuclear fission power plants. Further, the Sierra Club supports the systematic reduction of society's dependence on nuclear fission as a source of electric power and recommends a phased closure and decommissioning of operating commercial nuclear fission electric power reactors.
[1] https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/fighting-climate-chaos/issues...
It strikes me that transitioning to electric cars could become less viable the more we rely on renewables+batteries, as grid scale battery storage could hugely exacerbate shortages of battery materials.
Though on the other hand grid batteries would also spur more research into battery tech which could change the game for both grid & mobile batteries.
It seems like a huge gamble commiting to grid storage in the hopes of big innovations down the road instead of doubling down on baseload nuclear.
If you’re a courier or something you’re exempt.
No, this is the opposite of what is true. In most places, load peaks in the evening, just as the sun sets.
Looking up the data [1], the more nuanced answer is that load peaks in in the evening in the fall, winter, and spring. Only in the summer does solar energy match load.
[1] https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-e...
The issue is no states, cities, population want to issue permits to build them. Its political to the point no one will touch it.
It's not as clear cut. Cold start up and shut down of nuclear reactors take time, but there's lot of in between and nuclear still has quite a lot of flexibility: for instance, you can quickly modulate the power output down to 50% without special considerations (you can also go lower, but then it starts using the uranium quicker[1]), or you can even go off while staying hot and in pressure, which means only the fission divergence needs to be redone, this is usually done during the week-end.
And keep in mind that modern (= high yield) fossil plants also have limited flexibility: a supercritical coal plant takes a lot of time to warm up, and so does a CCGT.
[1]: or more precisely, since the power is controlled by top-down control rods, you end up burning uranium in the bottom more than in the top, which means replacing the fuel earlier.
As far as electrical output is concerned, nuclear power is just as variable as any other turbine based power generation system. Just divert the steam away from the turbines and you are no longer making electricity. Therefore, through creative plumbing, you could easily adjust the amount of power generated by controlling how much steam is going to the turbine. The issue is that while you are diverting steam, you are wasting money by running the reactor.
A nuclear reservation is generally a good place to lay out solar and wind arrays, whether the plant itself still operates or not.
Also, what you're saying can be done by, for example, electrolysis of water to make hydrogen. I'm currently working on fuel cells that can be operated in reverse; that is they generate electricity from fossil fuels when needed (at very high efficiency) but absorb excess electricity by producing hydrogen.
Really what you're proposing is accomplished more efficiently by stored energy. The problem is that we've tapped out the easy ways to redistribute load, or store energy decades ago.
We are going to need to figure out how to handle more intense seasonal weather in the south east US. Florida has already done a decent job hardening their transmission lines and making sure their grids can stand up to cat 5 storms (the way they weathered Irma was incredible, compared to Maria in Puerto Rico just weeks later) but transmission lines are easier to replace than generators.
Then, transmitted power is cheaper, but storage serves when transmission drops. The effect is amplified when transmission is from or through another country.
The power not stored though is of course still just a problem in general for efficiency sake - I wonder if there is something we could pair with nuclear plants that would use the otherwise wasted energy to accomplish something productive.
People consider 'nuclear' to be nuclear built many decades ago with technology principles from even a few decades earlier.
Building something that has such long term aspirations is inherently problematic.
At the same time, if you turn them off, how much of the replacement will be fossil?
If you actually had a carbon price, would they still not be competitive?
Nuclear is truly in a sad state. And those reactors if turned down can't easily be replaced with any next generation designs because they don't exist as a practical product right now.
I think in 100 years people will laugh at as saying things like 'They had all the technology needed back then, why did they use it so badly'? I think that future will be nuclear fission powered, and not sun and solar powered.
Next generation has two approaches, some try to be very adaptable, scaling up and down quickly. Its not like nuclear isn't capable of that if you have the right reactor. But of course you would prefer to run at 100% most of the time.
Other companies basically use a solar salt coolant loop as a heat sink and battery. Basically reusing the technology from Concentrated Solar Plants.
Moltex Energy for example basically expect basically a default 1h battery and then depending on the costumer and where you deploy it you can have a larger battery and a bigger turbine. You should be able to basically mix and match the size of your heat battery and your turbine.
I could also imagine something like Form Energy Iron batteries just sitting right next to a nuclear plant and simply charging those and saving energy in the form as electricity instead of in heat.
Every life on earth, was always sun powered. I doubt that fundamentally changes.
"They had all the technology needed back then, why did they use it so badly'?"
But I agree to that. The technology is there.
Did you know, that you can make batteries in bulk with no rare elements, with just iron, copper and saltwater?
And also, that you can transport electricity over long distances and that we have abundance of sunny desserts?
(and many more concepts of solar power generating, than just solar panels)
But sure, alternativly we can also build thousands of nuclear reactors, that contaminate their environment for a long time if they fail badly. I mean, fission is an quite awesome technology, which at some point of progress probably can handled safely under normal circumstances. But just because of unsolved human social dynamics alone (aka terrorism), it is maybe not very wise to scale them up and spread them everywhere.
But whether solar or nuclear - the main problems that remain, are that in most parts of the world, it is still way cheaper to just burn coal and oil.
We would not have this problem today if Ronald Reagan and his political heirs had not killed alternative power investment decades back.
And solar and win power were simpy not ready, no matter what Reagan did.
The simple fact is, green CO-2 free power grids were possible, and they were done in the 80s by France.
The reality is both parties turned essentially anti-nuclear because of the backlash in the 70s.
But Jimmy Carter was a trained nuclear engineer. He was well qualified to understand their true value. Or lack of it. He put solar panels up on the White House roof. Reagan scrapped them.
Reagan, of course, was not qualified to understand much of anything besides PR. But did, that.
Are we seriously gone pretend things like putting solar panel on the white house and putting so much emphasis on that was more likely to save CO2 anytime soon?
And it was in fact under Nixon and more under Carter that a number of nuclear efforts were stopped and replaced with things that had absolutely no chance of having great returns anytime soon.
I'm not saying Reagan was better, he clearly didn't turn that ship around. But the assertion that if it wasn't for him we would live in a CO2 free paradise because of carters investment in solar is totally delusional.
I am clearly talking about electricity generation on earth. Seem like a totally unnecessary thing to say as you knew very well in what context I said it.
> But I agree to that. The technology is there.
There is a very large gap been established principles science and commercial license.
> Did you know, that you can make batteries in bulk with no rare elements, with just iron, copper and saltwater?
Yes I know all about companies like Form Energy and many other battery startups.
But if we are actually honest, most of those are not deployed. Most grid batteries deployed today are still Li-Ion.
> And also, that you can transport electricity over long distances and that we have abundance of sunny desserts?
Yes, but all those things come at a cost. Localized energy presentation has been the principle and it made a lots of sense. Starting to in far more long distance energy line and local distribution of that energy had a number of disadvantages.
> But whether solar or nuclear - the main problems that remain, are that in most parts of the world, it is still way cheaper to just burn coal and oil.
That is why I fundamentally believe in nuclear, based on first principles it has the potential to be cheaper. There is no inherent reason a nuclear plant need to be more expensive then coal plant. And nuclear fuel should be cheaper then coal in the long term.
Nuclear plants can be put on a ship or floating platform and put right next to most of the large coast bound cities in Asia. Alternatively you can just go to a place with a coal plant put a nuclear plant there instead.
I just don't see those nations build a distributed networks of solar and wind and battery connected across long distances.
Places like Indonesia are massively expanding with coal, their population lives on the coast.
Because the price of lithium was low enough, to not bother. Now that has changed, so they will become broadly avaiable very soon. And it is not like there is any technological brakethrough required. You can build and order them today. It is more about adopting production processes to it, to make them cheaper than lithium based batteries. But I heard the argument too often, that batteries are not a solution, because of rare earth elements, which is why I brought it up.
"Yes, but all those things come at a cost. "
And yes, they do. The price for renewables is a massive investment in the grid. And the price for nuclear is safety. As far as I know, no private insurance company is willing to take that risk, which is why the states have to step in.
The worst thing that can happen with batteries is a fire (and most saltwater based batteries are actually quite fire proof)
The worst thing that can happen with a swimming nuclear plant is widespread contamination for decades.
It is still advised against eating too many mushrooms or boar meat in my area (central europe), because of one incident 35 years ago, happening 1000 km away.
Just like there isn't in advanced nuclear and yet you 100% believe that will happen but reject that the same can happen in nuclear.
Funny how that works. Both relay on a advanced chemical process that have to be correctly controlled.
The advantage is that a few 1000 nuclear plants can power the whole world, when we are talking about Form Energy style batteries we literally need 1000000s large locations to provide the kind of stability need for a global grid that only gets powered by solar/wind.
What happens when a volcano darkness the sun for a few weeks? Everything including transportation will be standing still. You better have a few weeks of backup energy. Storing the global need for 1 weeks worth of energy alone is almost unimaginable task. Specially once all flight transportation and industrial heat 100% depend on availability of electricity.
> It is still advised against eating too many mushrooms or boar meat in my area (central europe), because of one incident 35 years ago, happening 1000 km away.
Yes and that is total nonsense pushed by vastly overzealous over-reaction and fear mongering driven by absurd low tolerance level having been written into law to make nuclear almost impossibly expensive.
I'm central European and I have eat a lot of boar meat and I'm fine.
The actual reality is far more people have been killed by oil, gas and coal then nuclear, its not even close. The single largest nuclear accident in the history of the earth lead to the premature death of about 1500 people based on the best most authoritative report.
And of course that design has literally nothing to do with the designs I'm advocating. Its like saying 'don't ever get into a plain, somebody once build a zeppelin and wanted to fly it by making a hole in the hull and light they hydrogen stream out on fire'.
Go and actually study advanced modern nuclear reactors and tell me how they can lead to mass death. I would argue to come up with a viable case for major damage you would basically need terrorist working together with 2 massive natural disasters and even then its likely gone kill less people then a gas pipeline explosion.
Its nothing but fear mongering about technology people don't understand. Molten Salt reactor can not even produce a reaction like happen at Fukushima let alone the what happened Chernobyl.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/origin-energy-to-b...
No sign of a nuclear reactor in sight.
So not very surprising they are not being built there.
Coal could be Nuclear too in this regard.
And if nuclear had really involved at all since the 1970s nobody would even think about deploying solar and wind.
Next generation nuclear plant based on first principle analysis have no reason to be more expensive. The reality is such plants can run with little human intervention for potentially decades and the total land and materials requirements are not very large.
The fuel has the potential to be essentially free as thorium is a waste product and if you can run on natural uranium its also basically free.
The key is reducing the total investment to build a plant and the time it takes to build it. Both are very likely if you build plants that are only 1/10 the size and require far less safety and cooling equipment while being able to run on commercial turbines from gas and coal.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Gener...
At the very least, you should compare life-cycle $/MWh, not $/GW.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation....
Looking at the older report from 2018, we can see costs for plants entering service in 2022:
https://web.archive.org/web/20181227232223/https://www.eia.g...
In 2018 the LCOE for new nuclear built in 2022 was estimated at $92.60/MWh while that from solar PV was estimated at $63.20 (before tax credits) or $49.90 (after tax credits).
The newer report with projections for 2026 shows that both nuclear and solar PV get tax credits, and at that time the nuclear tax credit is actually larger. The after-tax LCOE is $30.43 for solar PV and $70.59 for nuclear.
The earliest report in this series was from 2016. The AP1000 reactors currently under construction in the US started building before 2016, back when solar was considerably more expensive. The decision to build new AP1000 reactors was economically rational given the then-current costs of solar and the then-projected costs of new reactors. The reactor projects went tremendously over budget and utility scale PV costs subsequently plummeted, so building new reactors in South Carolina today would be a much more dubious choice, but I don't fault the decisions made back then.
In 2020 in the United States, utility scale solar PV had a capacity factor of 24% while nuclear power had a 92% capacity factor:
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph...
Both are compatible with agriculture. Agricultural productivity under partial solar cover is higher than without, for less water input. Pasture is probably the easiest to make compatible, and there is a very great deal of pasture, although little of it is irrigated. The prospect of less irrigation need will drive solar onto more intensive cropland.
Solar and wind seem, thus far, relatively immune to corruption. Most storage methods should be, too. It seems to be because easy estimation of incremental cost leaves little scope for corruption.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solyndra?oldformat=true
> Solyndra executives misled federal officials to obtain $535 million in government-backed loans, with the help of former President Barack Obama's White House.
I haven't heard of much large scale wind projects. Most smaller scale corruption happens at the local level and rarely makes the news.
But the Wikipedia page does not in fact include any "misled federal officials" language, quoted above as if it were from there. It says, instead, "Ultimately, none of the investigations of Solyndra found any evidence of wrongdoing or undue political influence." Sometimes a business failure is just a business failure. I have not heard of any multi-billion dollar solar failures or cost overruns as are the norm for nukes.
Most wind projects are large scale, yet buy their turbines on the open market. Again, I have not heard of any big cost overruns or non-delivery.
Solar concentrator projects have not paid back investment because they have turned out to be uncompetitive, same as Solyndra, undercut by the staggering fall in cost of conventional photovoltaics. Their natural value would be for process heat, which I have not heard of being tried.
What is this mysterious storage that you speak of?
A reservoir for the latter requires a river collecting water from a large area watershed, and a dam lower down backing water up the river course.
Hydro storage requires only an elevated basin, and a pipe (penstock) leading up to it from a ready source of water -- even groundwater -- no watershed needed. Such basins are legion, and filling them typically discomfits no one.
https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/fy-22-bud...
Fusion has no practice reason to exist compare to advanced fission. The improvements in energy density are not really relevant factor at that scale, meaning the difference from oil to fission, and oil to fusion doesn't really gain you much.
Fusion fuel cost over the long term is likely more expensive then a fission fast breeder (not to mention a potential of thorium thermal breeder).
Is a fusion reactor going to be cheaper to build then a advanced fission reactor? Not from anything know so far. Advanced fission concept are viable with pretty normal tubes pretty industrial steels or at most advanced aerospace materials. Any fission reactors actually consider would have waste more complex and expensive parts.
The nuclear waste argument is sometimes made in favor of fusion but with the right kind of fission reactor this problem and issue that has very viable practical solutions and storage for a few hundred years is viable.
Sometimes nuclear proliferation is held up as a reason why fusion is good, but that argument doesn't really work either once you think threw it. Access neutrons of fusion can certainty be used for all kind of things.
Are fusion reactors inherently safer? That's questionable. To come up with a scenario where a modern molten salt breeder (or even molten salt reactor) leads to massive safety hazards for anything outside the exclusion zone is very hard to imagine.
The scenarios you have to come up with for both fusion or advanced fission to be massive safety concerns are both possible and incredibly unlikely.
My approach would be to do something like NASA did for Commercial and Crew, have competitive fixed price competition between a group of providers and offer the 2-3 winners of them at least 2 deployments.
Could you, though? Look at the "Nuclear Energy" category. It is entirely devoted to fission reactor research and has a 1.85 Bn USD budget. That's a SPARC every year. Where are the LFTRs on the grid?
Advanced fission is, by contrast, just wildly uncompetitive, and getting more so every day.
What exactly is inherently expensive.
From first principle, total resources invested, advanced nuclear wins by a huge amount. The same goes for land use.
A single building with a modern nuclear reactor in it could replace a gigantic wind-farm.
A billion dollars buys a GW of solar panel generating capacity today. Another billion buys plenty of storage. No NRC approval, no containment vessel, no disaster plan. You can start generating power almost immediately, while you are still building out. Prices continue falling the whole time you are building, so the last panel you put up costs half what the first did. It all fits well within the exclusion zone of a typical nuke reservation. You can put up wind turbines too. And keep adding panels, paying for them with income from ones already up.
That is just complete nonsense.
I think you are mixing up standard light water technology with nuclear power.
A common mistake but also complete nonsense.
I would highly advice you actually study nuclear power and nuclear reactor technology.
I believe the same as you do now because I was ignorant about the technology, the I actually engaged with it.
> If you got approval to build one, you would get no power for ten years, minimum.
Again, this is not even true for PWRs if you built more then 1 every other decade.
And the type of reactors I am talking about are totally different and require less then 10% the amount of resources and far smaller build project. They have no cooling towers and don't use any low heat steam power.
A single factory mass producing nuclear modular nuclear vessels has a far higher potential energy density then anything else imaginable. The first principles are not really in question.
Throwing money at problems warms up the industries around them. No one will get good at making HTS tapes unless they can pay to keep the lights on. Also, the plasma physics research is far from complete. Study of burning plasmas (coming with ITER) and different configurations of optimized stellarators (coming never?) are important places to shine the flashlight on.
We aren't on the home stretch, but that isn't a reason to stop, slow down, or even not speed up.
Agreed, I'm very pro fusion but at this point you have companies like Commonwealth Fusion that have raised multibillion dollar amounts on their own so maybe that's a more viable path than DOE/NSF Grants to Universities?
CFS has a path to be profitable even if they don't make a blueprint for reactors. Research needs high field magnets and they're positioning themselves to be the supplier of them.
Is this really the case though when Tech Startups routinely go public without ever turning a profit and with no clear vision on how they eventually will?
But none of the money will vanish: every penny goes into a ready pocket.
A nuke industry without pervasive corruption would have very different economics. But corruption is very hard to root out, particularly when it has instead been made wholly legal.
If you never properly fund something then you shouldn't be surprised if it never happens.
U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration, 1976. "Fusion power by magnetic confinement: Program plan"
ERDA report ERDA-76/110. Also published as S.O. Dean (1998), J. Fus. Energy 17(4), 263-287, doi:10.1023/A:1021815909065
The graph was taken from PPPL FIRE's 1976 report, freely available here:https://fire.pppl.gov/us_fusion_plan_1976.pdf
Obviously the 1976 chart did not have inflation data from 1976 to 1998, so you can see why we are below Logic I even though the budget is close to 500 M.
The entire PPPL FIRE site is a treat for anyone with some time on their hands.
In my comment I mentioned Magnets being a current barrier, in that case funding in Materials Science or EE would be more relevant and the 500M Fusion Funding number is irrelevant.
Plasma physics is a large task in fusion energy science, but it is not the only task. FES being the motivator of those materials research ventures means money in FES goes into those areas.
If the money poured into fusion for the past N decades had gone into solar and storage, good cheap solar panels would have come out decades earlier, and we would have already built out our clean power system. But the fossil companies did not want that.
There will never be a commercially competitive Tokamak fusion power plant.
Also, some tips on making convincing arguments: making baseless and unfounded speculations on alternate histories with not even a whiff of empiricism is not going to convince anyone. Additionally, saying "something won't work" without articulating why it won't work isn't helpful.
I've heard the power density arguments. It's a 40 year old argument that does not hold up in a world with HTS magnets and optimized stellarators.
If you increase the power in the same vessel is that not increasing the power density?
But no, the fundamental limit on power density in DT fusion doesn't come from plasma physics, it comes from engineering (specifically, limits on power/area on the first wall, coupled with minimum reactor size set by the cross section of neutrons w. blanket materials). You might have a sufficiently sucky design that can't even reach that limit, but once you reach it all the improvement in plasma physics or magnetic fields you can imagine doesn't help.
Panels have been viable for decades already. Storage is an entirely different problem.
>But the fossil companies did not want that.
Then they would really hate Fusion which would probably put every energy company on the planet out of business.
>There will never be a commercially competitive Tokamak fusion power plant.
Seems a bold claim.
It is not bold to say, about relative costs, that (n > 1) implies (10n > 1), when n is itself reliably increasing.
It would be akin to AI researchers saying that if only they had more funding they could create an AGI this decade despite fundamental unknowns about how to build something like that in the first place.
You doubt that investment wouldn't accelerate the development of those areas? So HTS discoveries and mass production fall out of the sky? No, they take money. Given money they, demonstrably, are developed.
HTS is the sexy success story because it has been critical path, but other areas of engineering research have been known and the critical path for development has not changed in 50 years.
Also, PPPL's 1976 report is a report to the government and public. It was not written by bureaucrats.
Most of that is paid in-kind, which means domestic manufacturing of components sent to ITER, so it's a bit like a stimulus. The US has also (famously) regularly failed to put in what they budget for, even in the past ten years having some years where they contribute less than half of what they agreed to.
https://science.osti.gov/-/media/budget/pdf/sc-budget-reques...
86 M USD cash, 220 M USD in-kind. The 450 M USD FES budget does not include in-kind contributions. I don't actually understand the accounting here.
The problem with current regulation is that power is treated like a fungible commodity when it is not.
Base load should be priced separately from peak and intermittent generation.
Being slow to start up will be a huge competitive disadvantage. Most storage providers will need a stock of front-end batteries, but there might need to be regulatory support for baseline capacity storage.
If it keeps on moving, regulate it.
If it stops moving, subsidize it.
Keep existing nuclear plants running for as long as safely possible, for sure, but stop throwing good money after bad with new generators. Build batteries (including pumped hydro where able), renewables, and transmission. Throw in some demand response or load shifting for loads that can tolerate being scheduled around renewables production (Google does this for compute using ElectricityMap.org, and Nest does demand response in aggregate as a revenue source, when utilities send a signal to shed AC load temporarily on peak consumption days versus firing up gas peakers).
https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-...
Edit: (HN throttling, can’t reply)
@mrits: Telling people what they want doesn’t work. If they want cars (they do), you sell them EVs. You use your margin to build out a global EV charging network and battery factories. I don’t live in traffic, that’s a choice for others to make. The world is full of space batteries can be installed out of the way to meet net zero goals. There is no such thing as an ideal world, just nudges of consumers towards more positive macro outcomes.
Safety costs must be balanced against other considerations, but the biggest and most important is profit. There has to be a profit, it can be for the taxpayer, or the energy consumer, or the government, or the investors--hopefully some for all.
Profit is essential, you have to reap two seeds from planting one.
Hanford only ever had one reactor that produced electricity, the N reactor, and that wasn't built until 1963:
So we can address that immediately: without the Hanford site, Japan would not have surrendered without an invasion of the home islands. Maybe not even then. It was the "new and cruel bomb," as the Emperor of Japan described it while citing it as the reason for surrender in his speech. That "new and cruel" bomb meant an alternative to reenacting the Battle of Iwo Jima (which I would describe as "fucked up" for both sides without question) a thousand times. Battles to the last cartridge. Forgetting completely about the lives of Allied and Axis soldiers, you realize the death toll that would have on the civilians of Japan? They were on the hook for all kinds of atrocities all over Asia and the Pacific, in the context of total war they pissed off the rest of the world way too hard for the Allies to declare a truce. Just in Korea alone, the stories are just...let's not talk about that, let's stick to what is fucked up within nuclear science.
Japanese were subscribed to the idea that their genocide was preferable to surrender. So that's why the bomb, and by extension the Hanford site, were so important. In practice the nukes in Japan explosives second, fireworks first. Napalm was a much better explosive for the money, in terms of the destruction it could produce. The really bad bombings in WWII were in Tokyo and Dresden, a hundred thousand dead per bombing, a new climactic event called a "Firestorm," terrible burns, pavement getting goopy, high winds--I claim those bombings were worse. But they weren't as flamboyant as a star.
But nobody knew about that when Hanford was set up and running, before then.
The firestorms were horrendous for the population, which had no influence on leadership, and were anyway ineffective against industrial production, so were doubly pointless. Blockade was massively underused in the Pacific theater.
Recall the Battle of Carrhae? Recap: Crassus was at the head of a Roman legion inside Parthia (meaning "Persian"; modern-day Iran). Totally flat. Then they started getting shot with arrows. Crassus and his legion would march toward the archers, but as they got close, the archers would stop shooting long enough to take vehicles drawn by horses away from the Roman soldiers, until they were far enough they could resume shooting arrows. The battle is well-known, but the detail I'd like to call attention to is that in Suetonius's "The Twelve Caesars" (IIRC) it says when the soldiers figured out the heavy rain of arrows would never stop, the soldiers ordered Crassus to surrender. Screaming at him and threatening him! So that's what he ended up having to do. Mutiny is no joke.
That is my thesis for the Japanese surrender. Perhaps the military leadership was too nicely tucked into safe bunkers near anti-aircraft turrets (I don't know what Japan had, but Berlin had four of these and they worked great against bombers, really scared the birds away quite nicely, guaranteed Killed-in-Action if you got too close). Whatever, the military leadership could relax if all they had to fear was conventional warfare, whatever the hell that meant by that particular month of 1945.
But nukes changed everything. Wrath of GOD, basically. After one bomb, Japanese leadership I imagine asked their internal Manhattan Project--they were working on the atomic bomb too at the time--what was happening. Presumably they were told it was a one-off thing, because uranium was too difficult to make. What really changed the game was the second bomb, which meant America could mass-produce them--thanks to Hanford, in particular--and then it was like, are we going to get another one of these new and cruel bombs every three days indefinitely? Where are they going to drop them in the future? What are the consequences of the starburns on the survivors, are the ones that lived going to be recover their health...ever? Are they dropping the next one on the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, and killing Hirohito as promised to the people of America? WHY ARE THE GODS SO ANGRY AT US, WERE WE WORSHIPPING SATAN THE WHOLE TIME? WILL THE PEOPLE OF JAPAN MUTINY WHEN THEY SEE A STAR ABOVE TOKYO? WHAT DO JAPANESE PEOPLE DO WHEN THEY MUTINY, IT'S OBVIOUSLY GOING TO HAPPEN EVEN IF IT'S NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE, WHAT WILL THE PEOPLE DO TO US? WHY DIDN'T WE CAVE IN TO THAT BEAUTIFUL ULTIMATUM THREATENING TO BRING ABOUT OUR "PROMPT AND UTTER DESTRUCTION," WHAT A BEAUTIFUL GIFT, why didn't we listen and surrender like they asked?
(I claim writing in all caps like this is justified. That is the literary freedom I ask for, and the site allows it in theory. Not doing so does an injustice to the degree of alarm imminent destruction brings about. The inner monologue when that destruction makes itself known sounds something along the lines of "OH FUCK OH FUCK OH FUCK!". All caps in your inner monologue. That's just for your personal reference, haven't seen it well-portrayed in movies much. It's not like anything else, maybe someday you'll see for yourself, dear reader. I hope not.)
A blockade eliminating fuel imports would shortly eliminate ability to operate trucks, aircraft, factories, electric power generation systems, and shortly telephones, radio stations, and kitchens.
That really depends on your definition of "fucked-up", but there is a long list of nuclear accidents in the US [0], among the more "fucked-up" ones were attempts to dispose of nearly a ton of left-over fissile material in mere landfills [1] and then ultimately losing track of them.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reactor_accidents_in_t...
[1] https://thebulletin.org/2014/05/thorium-the-wonder-fuel-that...
And if you look at the list of causalities its very small amount.
What are you smoking? This is blatantly false. We've absolutely had meltdowns, and come very damn close to real disaster (as in - evacuating a 20 mile radius including some 600,000 people close)
That's what I'm smoking. For there to be a fucked-up American accident the accident has to actually happen.
Some of this likely stems from a massive gaffe some years ago when California regulators demanded a certain percentage of state generation come from environmentally-friendly sources. PG&E laughed because it already had the largest hydroelectric portfolio in the US and didn't have to change anything. Democrat leadership, angry because they didn't find a way to punish the largest utility in the state, promptly recategorized large hydro as Very Naughty.
Does hydro have an environmental cost? Sure, so does everything. Is it a great way to generate and store electricity? Yes. Does that matter to lawmakers? No.
No municipals, even the biggest like LA's, tackles anything near the scale of even our smallest IOU. Most critics of the IOUs ignore the sheer scale and geographic challenges of running a service area larger than some states across many different types of terrain. Running retail distribution and metering isn't that hard when other people run the grid for you. PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E have lots of issues to be sure, but to compare them to SMUD or Modesto is far from apples to apples.
>...A typical 1,000-megawatt nuclear facility in the United States needs a little more than 1 square mile to operate. NEI says wind farms require 360 times more land area to produce the same amount of electricity and solar photovoltaic plants require 75 times more space. To put that in perspective, you would need more than 3 million solar panels to produce the same amount of power as a typical commercial reactor or more than 430 wind turbines (capacity factor not included).
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/01/f58/Ultimate...
Are there countries where the land use for nuclear power is orders of magnitude larger?
Good times!
The "evil solar lobby" has been saying for quite some time that solar is much cheaper than nuclear and therefore should play a large role in the post carbon grid. This article seems to reinforce their claims. Do you have a rebuttal, or are you just trying to be contrarian because it makes you feel good?
https://www.nei.org/CorporateSite/media/filefolder/resources...
The “massive taxpayer funded bailout” the nuclear industry wants is order of magnitude below what solar/wind/hydro get all the time. No wonder nuclear finds it hard to compete, when government subsidizes its competitors to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
And this doesn't even account for the fact that "Renewables" is a bucket that consists of multiple technology types including solar, wind, biomass and storage. So if those were actually broken out into individual categories nuclear would be the biggest receiver of incentives of the bunch.
However, when you look at the R&D column, which is a direct transfer of cash from the government to industry. Nuclear received over 2.5 times as much as renewables (85B vs 32B). This is even more of a travesty considering "Renewables" is a bucket of multiple technology types. So oddly enough, if I was to take away one thing from this report, it looks like we are not investing nearly enough in renewables R&D. Also, why is coal getting 43B, that sucks.