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You're trying to describe network effects without using that term it seems. It's a pretty well documented area and the fundamental idea is the more users, the more value generated (with some sort of exponential benefit). I don't think there is a flaw in the logic that the value of the service is immense when every single person in your community is on it. If you do, could you please explain further?

It might be sad or disappointing in your mind that people behave like this, but that's not a flaw in the logic of the behavior, just an opinion on how people tend to behave.

I've never framed it that way. Analyzing this as "network effect" is an interesting thought. But no, network effect is not the key insight I'm attempting to communicate.

I'm talking about a generation of kids growing up with technology. This isn't about the value of the network increasing as people use it. It's about a fundamental shift in one's worldview by encountering the technology during formative years. I'm basing much of this on Clotaire Rapaille's work, as described in his book, The Culture Code (http://www.amazon.com/Culture-Code-Ingenious-Understand-Peop...).

Rapaille conducted a study for Nestle. Nestle wanted to open up the Japanese market for hot chocolate. Using his research methods, Rapaille found that adult Japanese never formed early childhood impressions of chocolate, and so introducing chocolate products to Japan would fail miserably. As a result of the study, Nestle shifted its marketing strategy towards introducing chocolate to Japanese children, with the idea that twenty years down the road, they can sell chocolate products when they become adults.

Half a million daily Android activations means that a generation of children grows up encountering a personal computer in the form factor of a smartphone. Having come from the older generation, I still picture a desktop computer in my mind when I see the word "computer", despite working primarily with web technologies and cloud servers. To make sure my products do not become obsolete, I have to step into the shoes of someone who grew up picturing "smartphone" when someone says "computer". It means that any web/cloud application I make must be delivered on a smartphone first, with the desktop experience being an after-thought. I can live with that. That will mean twenty years from now, software development will mean keyboard-less IDEs, but I can still live with that.

I apply the same frame to these Facebook announcement. What is it like growing up where your first impressions of social dynamics is Facebook? I can separate my online identity because I entered my teenage years in the era of text-based MUDs and email. I had access to the internet when most of my friends do not know what it is. I could and did interact with adults. But a pre-teen or a teenager growing up now, knows that you can't separate the social identity like that. What, are you crazy?

What would a society with the unexamined assumption of "Facebook = Social" look like? One that accelerates the general trend for the past several generation: further isolation from the deep wisdom of previous generations; rites of passages conducted by clueless peers that end up in tragedy; a new life stage to describe young adults in their 20s to describe an extended childhood, much the way "teenage" was invented to describe the emergence of an extended childhood.

I do not like what I see in this thought-experiment. So while I might embrace the future when it comes with mobile devices, to this ... travesty ... called Facebook = Social, I say, "bah humbug."

(And next thing you know, I'll be walking out my front door with a cane, shaking a fist, "Dang kids! Get off my lawn!")

You make some interesting points and I will probably have to check out that book at some point.

I will skip the computer/phone stuff, I don't really think we have an disagreement about changing consumer behaviors.

Facebook=Social, your conclusions are a bit different than what I perceive. Further isolation from the deep wisdom of previous generations is not the conclusion I would necessarily make. To me it seems they could actually be the most connected to older generations simply because they are sharing a social space (facebook) with them. Sure, not everyone is going to be friends with older generations, but the opportunity is greater, the barrier for communication is lower and older generations are watching them closer than before.

Each generation has to go through its own unique rite of passage given cultural, technological and social standards of the time. I think they'll figure it out and make it work, somehow that always seems to happen.

"To me it seems they could actually be the most connected to older generations simply because they are sharing a social space (facebook) with them."

You make an excellant point here. I have not seen examples in the wild of the kind of "deep wisdom" being shared across the Internet by private family groups, but that doesn't mean it does not exist. However, I know certain wisdom cannot pass on through the internet, can only pass on by face-to-face. They are typically transmitted through body language, physical motion, and sheer charismatic presence.

"Each generation has to go through its own unique rite of passage given cultural, technological and social standards of the time. I think they'll figure it out and make it work, somehow that always seems to happen."

This has been true only within the past several generation, and only due to Moore's Law. In other words, this uniqueness for each generation is an aberration.

Tribal wisdom used to be told through folklore, myths and initiations. These days, in the mainstream and in geek subculture, we use the word "myth" to mean "superstitious", and "something to dismiss" in contrast to "facts." The surviving stories appear in the better science fiction and fantasy novels and pop-culture TV shows. Comics. Anime. Some movies. A tiny handful of video games. Often tainted by consumer lifestyle values.

An example of what I mean, that's meta enough to discuss this within the story: Neal Stephenson's Diamond Age

It comes back to what I wrote in that Quora answer. Today, peers, not elders, conduct modern rites of passages. Elders today cannot keep up with Moore's Law, so peers conduct them. You end up losing things that still remain true, generation to generation regardless of technological changes (hence, "deep" wisdom), and you learn them from your clueless peers.

Out of curiosity, can you describe what sort of 'deep wisdom' you think isn't/cannot be passed along? It's a rare thing to be deeply moved by what someone is saying (at least in my experience), but I don't think the times I've truly been moved by information being imparted on myself is exclusive to the realm of 'real life.' There are wonderful movies, books, even conversations I've had that have had profound impacts on me as a person. I am not sure if perhaps you think this isn't possible or we are thinking about fundamentally different experiences?

I actually thought about this point when I wrote my response, that perhaps it may be limited to the past hundred or two hundred years. However, I am not sure if that's the case or not, I don't know enough history/sociology to make any sort of qualified statement on the subject. The pace at which technological change is happening has certainly increased since the industrial revolution, and I presume that has been a major driver of cultural change as well.

I am still not really sure what you mean by learning form clueless peers. It isn't as if all the elders in a society disappeared - most children still go to school, have parents, get jobs, are exposed to role model figures. In fact what do you think of most western countries where population is actually getting older and there is a lack of young people?

"Out of curiosity, can you describe what sort of 'deep wisdom' you think isn't/cannot be passed along?"

I assume you mean, "cannot be passed along Facebook, or other Internet-like communications network".

Mindfulness is one example. It's difficult to convey over the internet, and still challenging in person. It's the kind of skill that requires someone present to point out when you're being mindful and when you become distracted. You can't force someone else to be mindful. Hell, you can't force yourself to be mindful. Many stories disguise lessons of mindfulness.

Fear and dealing with fear is the biggest example. All fear roots back to existential fear. Some (not all) older people have a peculiar attitude because they see their own demise coming, accept it, and live on. The TV show, Breaking Bad is a great example, a man who saw the end of his existence, stripped away all the BS and decided to leave behind a legacy.

However, it's one thing to watch characters on the screen deal with fear, and quite another to deal with your own. The mind plays many tricks to comfortably avoid fear. Another person in the same room witnessing your discomfort has significant impact; if they are able to mindfully witness and convey a sense of safety, such interaction helps you gain insight about your fear, and possibly change habits and actions resulting from that.

"The pace at which technological change is happening has certainly increased since the industrial revolution, and I presume that has been a major driver of cultural change as well."

Though off-topic, you might find this interesting: http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2011/06/08/a-brief-history-of-the-...

Venkat's blog post led me to a book, Lever of Riches ... which I think has a lot of useful insights yet seriously flawed. But, it is interesting as a survey of technological history and look at changes within culture as well. I did not know, for example, that clockwork mechanisms reached high art before the invention of moveable type. These clockwork mechanisms directly paved the way for industrialization, and accounts for the obsession some cultures have for gadgets and gadget making.

I've also asked this series of questions on Quora. Perhaps you might have some insights:

"How has the invention of moveable type accelerated the tempo of invention and innovation?" ( http://www.quora.com/How-has-the-invention-of-moveable-type-... )

"How has Open Source accelerated the tempo of software innovation?" ( http://www.quora.com/How-has-Open-Source-accelerated-the-tem... )

"How has Github accelerated the tempo of software innovation?" ( http://www.quora.com/How-has-Github-accelerated-the-tempo-of... )

"How does the tempo of innovation within Github differ from that of a geographic technology hub such as Silicon Valley?" ( http://www.quora.com/How-does-the-tempo-of-innovation-within... )

"In fact what do you think of most western countries where population is actually getting older and there is a lack of young people?"

I have not studied up on Western cultures as much as I did American and East Asian cultures. I'll think about this.

As a distraction, I offer this story. Japan has a cultural value in which the elders (now mostly from the WWII generation) believe that they can and should sacrifice themselves for the future generation, the children. It's a sort of a, strange mix of bushi and Confucian values. Another interesting thing: the Japanese Shinto values of spirit ex machina leads to a great obsession with robots and androids ... and exoskeletons to help the rice farmers continue growing rice. Because many of the younger generation do not want to farm. There's big problems with social recluses.

Yet, I have also read reports of the attitudes of the generation just now entering ... post-high school. Unlike their older siblings (about half a generation older), they ... don't quite outright reject their boomer parents workoholic attitude, yet don't seem to run and hide away in a closet. I look forward to the stories coming out of this generation. Maybe I'm wrong about "rites of passage conducted by clueless peers" after all.

Thanks for clarifying what type of things you think cannot be passed along. I think that's a good example. I guess my biggest question becomes - can we design ways to pass that information along more effectively? Sure the world isn't just facebook, I think of more as a nexus for organizing and documenting social lives. It doesn't take away from the fact that most of the 'actual' socializing happens in the presence of others physically.

The blog post was very long and I think he missed some of the major historical points (especially about finance). You should checkout The Ascent of Money for a good history of corporations and the financial innovations that made them possible. It would argue spain/portugal didn't become irrelevant because they weren't as good, it was almost because they were too successful. The flood of physical wealth prevented financial innovation which allowed the dutch and brits to get ahead.

Japan is especially fascinating to me (I am half Japanese) and the culture is very bizarre in a lot of ways. It's probably one of the most (if not the most) homogeneous society on earth. I do wonder what the effects of that are on determining people's beliefs and behaviors. For instance, would the willingness to sacrifice and contribute to the greater good be diminished in a less homogeneous society? The recluses, while a problem, I am not sure what percent they ever actually made up. There is a lot of social problems in Japan for so many different economics, political, cultural reasons. However, I do wonder how much they were blown out of proportion in the media as a scare versus a real threat to the very fabric of society. I have a number of japanese friends who would be in your recluse age group, even the worst off one (I don't want to tell their personal story here, but it's not good and probably sounds like many great struggles to find identity for young people), ultimately became a salaryman. I think they are finding their way eventually, most of them at least. It's always been strange for me to try and understand Japanese culture. I am Japanese but I don't think I would ever be considered Japanese, so it still feels almost like an outsider looking in, with maybe a slightly less foggy window.

> I guess my biggest question becomes - can we design ways to pass that information along more effectively?

That's a very good question. Something to mull over.

> You should checkout The Ascent of Money for a good history of corporations and the financial innovations that made them possible.

Sure. I'll check it out.

Just want to address your "500,000 daily Android activations" comment.

During the C64's lifetime, sales were around 15 million units in total. The C64 was "relevant" between 1981 and 1991. So, roughly 125,000 units sold a month. "Making it the best-selling single personal computer model of all time." -Wikipedia, with sources.

Computers have never sold as much as phones. Phones of any variety. So what?

I don't equate "Skateboard = Automobile" because they both have wheels. I don't change my thinking from skateboard to car because cars sell more.

I like skateboards. I like computers. Neither are going away any time soon.

I think you are confusing "relevant" with "popular" or "big piles of money i'd like to take a bath in." I applaud developers who broaden what they are doing. I applaud investors who want to make money investing in whatever makes money. But, businesses come and go. Commodore, in fact, is a perfect example of botching the business, while others continued to make the product, improve the product, and the product is still relevant.

Furthermore, Facebook didn't invent the "generation gap". It's the same thing over and over and over dating back thousands of years. "Being social" is "being human" and not necessarily "being Facebook." There's a bigger picture here.

Regards,

Apparently I was not very clear in my writing with what "500,000 daily activations of Android" means. I elaborated my reasoning in a followup post. Feel free to rebut that.

By definition, being social means doing things other people are doing.

You can be mindful or mindless in "doing things other people are doing." Many people choose to mindlessly "do things other people are doing." Leaders take a step in a direction, and the crowd may or may not follow them. If they do, it's because people tend to follow, rather than to lead.

Which is interesting, considering that many of us are here because we want to take some risk as entrepreneurs, to step out and do what people are not doing. Does that mean entrepreneurs are not social?