What a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for the global economy

If it happens I predict:

Lots of sanctions, fear, anger, and more economic troubles everywhere. Increased food and fuel costs.

Refugees flood out of Ukraine into nearby countries. Humanitarian crisis and calls for international aid / assistance.

More COVID outbreaks due to refugees and bad living conditions.

Other eastern European nations will be interested in joining NATO or some kind of security pact so the same thing does not happen to them.

In short, bad for everyone.

Yes, the economy is what everyone should be worried about. Not the potential devastation and lives lost but the economy.

While it’s possible Russia could invade Ukraine, it’s probable that Russia will not.

The vast majority of both Russian government revenue and Russian export earnings is energy and energy royalties.

Russia’s foreign policy is optimised for tension rather than war.

War is expensive.

Tension, beneath the threshold of war, enhances profit and influence for Putin and Russia.

Meanwhile the story below that one on axios is Putin is withdrawing a portion of the troops.