Ask HN: How do you expect the world to change if Russia invades Ukraine? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: How do you expect the world to change if Russia invades Ukraine?

13 pointsjoitfdvbv34 comments

What do believe the impact and change will be to nations and people across the world?

My personal opinion: it will change in the same way as it changed when Russia invaded Crimean Peninsula - almost no one remembers, no one cares, it changed nothing outside of Russia/Ukraine. The world forgot.

Huh? The world did not forget. I did not forget. What leads you to say that?

Are you suggesting that if you didn't forget - the world didn't forget as well? Isn't it a bit presumptuous?

I'm stating two things:

1. I individually thought about if many times over the years.

2. I read or heard other people talking about it over the years.

And the world's largest natural gas wells still flow under Russian control. The world may not have forgotten, but it still stood aside & did(does) nothing.

It does more than nothing, but less than necessary to play rescuer to Ukraine.

You're putting words in other people's mouths. Are you some kind of Russian propaganda shill?

I thought a lot about it since then, and I still think about it even before this whole crisis...

You're being overly pessimistic saying nobody cares or remembers... We just can't do anything about it so we don't talk about it

As you can see I also remember. Not that it anyhow matters.

If people caring about you does not matter, that is a sign you're heading towards nihilism. You likely need to go for a walk and choose to do something in the direction of finding a sense of community or spiritual rejuvenation.

It does. In a small way, maybe, but it does.

Just like the Russo-Georgian War of '08. Interesting coincidence, it happened while the Chinese Olympics were going on. Are we due for a repeat while all(most) eyes are on China?

Europe certainly didn't forget. Russia's reputation has suffered a lot.

Lots of sanctions, fear, anger, and more economic troubles everywhere. Increased food and fuel costs.

Refugees flood out of Ukraine into nearby countries. Humanitarian crisis and calls for international aid / assistance.

More COVID outbreaks due to refugees and bad living conditions.

Other eastern European nations will be interested in joining NATO or some kind of security pact so the same thing does not happen to them.

The headline is incorrect. My proposal is "How do you expect the world to change if Russia invades rest of Ukraine?"

From the rethoric you hear from EU leaders and the US president, I don't expect NATO to take any direct military action, because blowing this conflict to a full-scale war between two of the main military powers would catastrophically disrupt the global economy. Furthermore, I don't think one would find enough public support for going to war with Russia in most of those countries, which would make a sitting president willing to get directly involved, wildly unpopular.

> From the rethoric you hear from EU leaders and the US president, I don't expect NATO to take any direct military action, because blowing this conflict to a full-scale war between two of the main military powers would catastrophically disrupt the global economy.

So just keep giving into the lunatic demands of a nation-state mafia?

Here in the US, the military industrial complex would use it to drive funding, sow fear, and keep "strong on defense" politicians in power. It also serves to distract from the abject failure of governments worldwide to properly handle Covid.

However, I have been lied to repeatedly by "news" organizations, so why not use the power of the internet to see how things really are? I did a search for live webcams based in Ukraine, and it looks to me like things there are actually quite normal. People are walking around the public squares, there are people skiing on the slopes.

Is there really anything more than political shenanigans to keep Ukraine out of NATO happening? I have reason to doubt it.

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If there is an actual invasion, I agree with alfanick, nothing much will change.

I think it will severely impact outsourcing to Ukraine. These people will most likely move to HCOL countries and wages will grow.

I think it will encourage China to expand its borders sooner than it already plans to

No more chicken kievs (it's their only export)

EU will/should subsidize non gas/oil exponentially

So you suggest people to suffer just because it may supposedly damage Russia?

I'm suggesting eu should promote more environmental friendly alternatives and be less dependant on Russia and use the current situation as one of the reasons for an extra push.

We tried being dependant and it didn't work. We're already having the downsides from it.

With the additional hope that we're pushing environmental friendly innovation in the EU.

Like it or not. Do you have a better solution? They already shot airplanes and killed eu civilians. Recurring threats to check eu war responses, killed with Plutonium on our territory and killed thousands of Ukrainians since 2014.

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So I'm throwing a question back, since complaining is easy: "what would be the better solution according to you"?

> We tried being dependant and it didn't work. We're already having the downsides from it.

May i know what downsides are you referring to?

> Do you have a better solution? They already shot airplanes and killed eu civilians.

Not sure who are you talking about here. Shot planes? Who shot planes? Killed eu civilians? Who? Who killed thousands of ukrainians?

> what would be the better solution according to you"?

Well, it depends on solution yo what we are looking for. Generally speaking I’d suggest EU to focus on internal issues instead of supporting colour revolutions (yeah, particularly the one happened in ukraine)

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/10/889953353/nearly-6-years-afte...

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt1038914/

Russia with an army near the border is an internal issue.

All my examples are related to internal issues and literally at our border, with a partner.

The country itselve is even literally asking for help.

And if you're not aware of the gray zone conflict since 2014 and that thousands of people got killed on Ukrainian soil because of Russia.

Then your should really start educating yourselves before your say anything further.

No "suggestion" for a "better solution", just ignorance of facts that happened/are happening.

Well, I had hoped not to live to the moment where we use movies as an argument in seemingly serious discussion.

Hopefully "Home Alone" or "Die hard" didn't shape your picture of our world.

> And if you're not aware of the gray zone conflict since 2014 and that thousands of people got killed on Ukrainian soil because of Russia.

I'd suggest you to substantiate claims like that - "because of Russia". Not everyone is a product of propaganda and readily believe in anything without any evidence.

> No "suggestion" for a "better solution", just ignorance of facts that happened/are happening.

That's would be great if you bring up facts to support your claims instead of throwing patronising phrases about education.

It's a documentary... Perhaps you can learn something from it.

I assume you have nothing to say regarding other questions?

As for the “documentary”, it has nearly same value as “russian invasion” scheduled on Feb 16 and perpetuated by all MSM.

Sorry, I prefer other sources of information.

For those other sources of information. I should remind you about the following:

> The cheaper to produce, the cheaper to use it for propaganda.

A video documentary with witnesses, CCTV footage, interviews and people identifiable as the researchers/KGB agents, documents tracing them, ... Makes perfect sense as source of information.

Additionally, you should realize that the US releases information to deter Russian action. If it doesn't happen, the odds are in their favor that they actually succeeded ( we'll see, since they release satellite imagery regularly).

As such, Satellite imagery backed claims of US > claims of Russia.

You shouldn't fix that date as an absolute. It's a current best guess estimate. You should know this by simple logic reasoning, so I'm just stating the obvious here.

Fyi, everything the US mentioned is happening. Russian friendlies are being evacuated from Donetsk after buses magically appeared 10 hours ago.

False flags happened 2 hours ago. US warned for it 6 hours ago.

Removing every trade relation with Russia should be priority #1 atm.

Unless you are watching CNN - it's not "russian frendlies" who are evacuated but women and children. They are evacuated due to heavy shelling and provocations made by ukraininan army or ultra-nationalistic paramilitary groups.

It's not the Ukrainians provoking obviously.

It's literally Russians planting false flag ops. We've already been warned about this.

The Russian video convicting the Ukrainian attacks was literally made before it happened ( on the 16th of February and it happened in the 18th).

> It's not the Ukrainians provoking obviously.

Why obviously?

> It's literally Russians planting false flag ops. We've already been warned about this.

That's a very poor justification, isn't it?

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