Heterosexual HIV diagnoses overtake those in gay men for first time in a decade
tht.org.uk
tht.org.uk
According to the article, "Half of all new HIV diagnoses were in heterosexuals (49%) in England in 2020, compared to 45% in gay and bisexual men."
Based on the official UK statistics, gay men are about 0.85% of the adult general population. [1] Based on the same source, 93.2% identify as being straight.
Then, if the incident rates were the same, you'd expect the straight HIV diagnoses to be about 110 times [2] the gay ones. However, the real number is ~1.09 times [3].
That means the incident rates are not the same, and gay men are about 101 times [4] more likely to be diagnosed with HIV in England. (This is of course just a ballpark number, but the point stands even if the numbers are a bit off)
[1]: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/cultural... ("Around 1.7% of males identified themselves as gay or lesbian in 2017", this might be a slight underestimate because of people being closeted etc.)
[2]: 0.932/0.0085 ~= 110
[3]: 49%/45% ~= 1.09
[4]: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%280.932%2F0.0085%29%2F...
0 - https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/covid-19-stat... page 33 of the full report
Put another way: half of all new HIV diagnoses are in heterosexuals, who as a population are significantly less likely to be tested for HIV to begin with.
I'm the US and not the UK, but I think the last time I was tested for HIV was when I was in college. When I told doctors that I was straight, they ordered tests for other STIs, but never HIV.
It's not that simple: The chronic phase of HIV is frequently asymptomatic, and frequently lasts over a decade[1]. Even the AIDS phase can last for years before an opportunistic infection causes severe enough illness.
The initial (acute) phase has flu-like symptoms that people typically ignore.
[1]: https://hivinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv/fact-sheets/stages...
There are two forces at play: decreasing infection rates among gay men, and increasing infection rates among straight men. Both aspects of the curve are "doing work" to change the statistics.
But yes, there are significant shifts that explain these changes: increases in IV drug use, a decline in condom use among straight sex partners due to readily available alternative prophylactics, and an overall increased emphasis on testing the entire population for HIV/AIDS.
You may have missed the point — only one of those is modulated by (relative) delay in heterosexual diagnoses post-infection.
My experiences point to a lot of bisexual men living in the closet and are ashamed of what they are. I think guys in that situation typically want the heterosexual lifestyle of kids and marriage, but the thrill of sex with a guy on the side. There have been very, very few guys I've seen on there who are married to a woman who are able to openly explore sex with men with their wife's consent.
I can't really comment on women who are bisexual however.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2016/05/over-80-percent-of-...
"The massive 2013 Pew Research LGBT Survey found 84 percent of self-identified bisexuals in committed relationships have a partner of the opposite sex, while only 9 percent are in same-sex relationships"
Would appending a clause mentioning that gay men remain at greater risk improve the headline? Or is it possible that this story should be presented in a very different way or not at all?
.932/.068= 13.7
Even though this is still pretty higher, it's probably much more realistic
I think 1.7% is out of the males, and males are about half the general population.
> Additionally, gay/bi is included in the same bracket so the real number would probably be 1-.932=0.068 instead of 0.0085
I think the 1.7% number also includes bisexual males, but I'm not completely sure. (The title of Figure 1 of the section in the source is "Lesbian, gay or bisexual")
My overall point isn't about the exact numbers though, and I agree that the government survey number is probably an underestimate.
Another page on the same website says that "Between 2018 and 2019, the number of men identifying as LGB increased from 2.5% to 2.9%", so maybe 0.0145 is a better number than 0.0085?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/cultural...
# of gays / # of males
but what we want is: # of gays / the whole populationI still think the overall point remains valid though.
It reads as if you expose the article to make a wrong statement about incident rates. The article however however is purely right in this regard. It does not talk about comparison of incident rates at all. Its first sentence already clearly talks about numbers of HIV diagnoses.
If your comment would be like "Don't read the title in a wrong way. HIV is still much more common among lgb men than among heterosexual men and women. Reason is that lgb men are around 2.3% of all men compared to heterosexual mean and women who are 93.2% of the population" it might be helpful.
No? But you could read it as "exposing" the fact that it mentions incident rates only vaguely [1], and that the title is chosen strategically. (The article looks seems to be part of a public health campaign to encourage heterosexuals to test for HIV, and that's probably part of the reason.)
There were a couple of comments which raised valid points about my rough estimate though.
[1]: It only says "Gay and bisexual men are still more impacted by HIV relative to population size", but the question of by how much seems to be left an exercise for the reader.
The take away from the article is that your risk as a man who does not have sex with men is nonzero and that regular testing is important to personal health outcomes and to keeping infection rates low, and that cheap and effective preventative measures are available, including PReP and PEP. After thirty-odd years of dealing with it, MSM be aware.
Heck, most people don't see their doctor for any reason quarterly in the US.
For PrEP they require a blood draw anyways to check creatinine levels since it can indicate side effects involving the kidneys, so you may as well draw blood for everything else too.
For those in your situation, Planned Parenthood might be an option for reduced or no cost STI screening.
Heterosexuals did not "overtake" gay men (HIV diagnoses amongst heterosexuals dropped too), so much as gay men have been so effective at reducing transmission over the last 5 years that they've "fallen behind".
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hiv-annual-data-tab...
Plenty of HIV+ "hetero" folks are hiding their homosexual activities, for myriad obvious reasons, i.e. the stats probably aren't accurate.
Don't assume you're particularly well insulated because you think you're playing bareback in the non-gay pool. Plenty of folks are pissing in all the pools, there are no boundaries.
As if heterosexuals don't have anal sex. Back in my teens it was a running joke that the catholic girls would only do anal before marriage, give me a break dude.
Attended a catholic private school growing up in an extremely conservative+religious part of the midwest, not really interested in divulging anything more personal than that on the subject. But I can confirm it's not a pure myth.
Instead, here's a reminder that being prejudiced is quite normal. It's easier to associate gay people with promiscuity, to connect those dots, than to think of people differently along so many axioms of different traits.
I'm reminding myself as well. Can't judge another with one finger without the remaining fingers pointed at myself (well except for the thumb).
But what's also true is that gay people on average are much more promiscuous and much more likely to have anal sex. This is obvious to anyone who knows any significant number of gay people. And it is also reflected in countless surveys.
HIV diagnosis rates are subject to both a latent rate bias and a skewed sampling bias: if the average gay man gets tested 10 times (factor chosen at random) as often as the average straight man, then we would expect higher positive diagnoses in a smaller population without as much (if any) underlying difference in true positive rates.
I'm not saying that the infection rates are comparable, because I don't have any hard data to support that. But the story is much more nuanced than "gay people are significantly more likely to give each other HIV," and will continue to gain nuance over time.
[1]: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
HIV is positively correlated with overall morbidity: straight men who are in risk categories for HIV (in the US) are also in risk categories for overdose, violent death, and exposure (homelessness). We don't test people who die from these things for HIV, and we don't have a unified federal (or even state) tracking system for correlating those deaths with HIV diagnoses.
Even if these cases were a minority, you're still misunderstanding the basic statistical shape here: fewer than 35,000 people receive positive HIV diagnoses each year, and diagnoses frequently don't happen (especially in non-gay/MSM population) for years after initial exposure. In other words: our sampling for the straight population trails our sampling for the gay/MSM population by at least a decade. This is especially important to factor when you consider that PrEP only really became universally available in the last decade, and that the last decade has also seen an unprecedented rise in IV drug use.
No, the sampled rates for each are what they are. I've extensively described the sampling bias with each.
> There’s no reason to suspect a yet undetected spike in straight infections.
There doesn't need to be a spike for what I'm saying to be true. But even still, demographic trends support the (unverified!) hypothesis that straight men will continue to grow as a proportion of diagnosed HIV cases: increased IV drug use, increased availability of non-barrier prophylactics, etc. But again, I've said all of this before.
Funnily enough one of the sources used in the risk assessment report made in the 2000s was literally a porn site.
Unfortunately doctors here are very sue-happy when you write about how they're bad to trans people, so lists of recommendation and anti-recommendations are often only made and shared in private.
TL;DR:
* 66% of recorded infections are in the gay/MSM population;
* 23% of recorded infections are in the straight population
The site doesn't provide the actual statistic for gay women/WSW, but those two numbers imply that it's around 11% (+/- 2% for the transgender population, which is also not clearly factored out.)
[1]: https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/stat...
So this is an interesting development
There was also the counter theory that the corona virus had been mixed with HIV components in a lab and would give AIDS to people that had no vaccine
Interesting to see how this theory pans out
> Cold-causing adenovirus used in four experimental COVID-19 vaccines increased risk of HIV infection when used in AIDS vaccine trials ... In today's issue of The Lancet, four veteran researchers raise a warning flag about those COVID-19 vaccine candidates by recounting their experience running a placebo-controlled AIDS vaccine trial dubbed STEP.
Feb 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/10/prince-harry...
> Prince Harry: get tested for HIV to protect others in same way as for Covid ... Every single one of us has a duty, or at least an opportunity, to get tested ourselves to make it easier for everybody else to get tested.” Noting there had been a drop in HIV testing during Covid, he added that with people regularly testing for coronavirus, it should be “ingrained in us that that’s what we need to do, to know our status in order to be able to keep other people safe”.
Feb 2022, https://www.healthline.com/health-news/moderna-launches-clin...
> Moderna and International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI) have launched the clinical trial of an experimental HIV vaccine that utilizes the same mRNA technology used in some COVID-19 vaccines ... The development of an HIV vaccine has taken decades, and the mRNA technology may help speed up the process.
Moderna stock is down 58% in the last six months, https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MRNA:NASDAQ?window=6M
Moderna's Covid vaccine dosage was reduced by 50% in the FDA-approved booster, from 100mcg to 50mcg, https://www.modernatx.com/covid19vaccine-eua/providers/dosin.... Pfizer's Covid vaccine dosage for adults was unchanged at 30mcg in their FDA-approved booster. Pfizer's Covid vaccine dosage for 5-11y children is 10mcg, https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/downloads/Pfizer-Pedia...
seems a possibility
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/09/hiv-in...
People that identify as gay or bisexual have better STD testing routines.
All groups have better STD testing routines and preemptive measures than before.
Gay and bisexual groups have better results by being more proactive.
No new risker behavior is being seen as more prevalent from this data, in the UK.
Sexually active gay men generally take PrEP.
The end result: historically at-risk populations have HIV more-or-less under control, while populations that historically have considered it a non-or-low risk (heterosexuals) don't. It has nothing in particular to do with sex acts.
Men who have sex with men are a tiny proportion of the population so the effective rate of infection is still (as we've known for four decades) far higher in these people.
They also don't account for other key risk factors: IV drug abuse, increased immigration from high incidence populations such as Africa and heterosexual woman who have sex with bisexual men.
Apparently understanding numbers and statistics is too hard for people trying hard to fit facts to woke narratives.
I'm going out for dinner with my wife, and you want me to have to get an HIV test to get into the restaurant? No. Get lost. Not all of us go into restaurants to try to score, and we're tired of people trying to dictate how we should live "for our good".
> I think it’s a no brainer to require this of anyone who wants to eat at a restaurant or bar or even purchase non essential goods.
Doubly get lost. I know HIV tests exist; if I want one, I'll get one. Stop trying to force me to do what you think I should do.
Or was that sarcasm, aimed at the Covid "response"?