"think what I would rephrase as is: given my genetic makeup, discipline is more likely to yield benefits using openAI Jukebox rather than guitar or piano."

I don't agree with this sort of sentiment at all. I'm not talking about benefits as in being in the top % of people in a field- I don't care about that. I'm talking about getting very good and playing with people and/or earning income. Anyone can achieve that with time and work.

The best players that I know all study quite diligently and play/make music literally all the time. They're getting their 10,000 hours in and then some. I'm speaking here as a guitar & bass player but this applies to really any instrument.

Unless you physically or mentally cannot play e.g. the guitar, if you studied it diligently for several years, you would be better than a lot of people who haphazardly study it. By 1-2 years you could already be sitting in and doing small gigs (for bass, a lot sooner, since there's a glut of of amateur guitarists). By 3-4 years of again, diligent study, you would be quite decent/respectable. As far as "making it", that comes down to the above + socializing with musicians + interpersonal skills like being on time, etc.

"Genetic makeup" or "talent" have absolutely zero to do with that unless it's literally impacting your ability to play or practice. All that's needed is discipline to study correctly (and motivation, which goes without saying). And a great many people study poorly.