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> Also, if you've ever worked in the trades you would know that a large portion of them are ignorant and uneducated. That stereotype exists for a reason. Its just a fact, and they have a tougher time navigating life because of it. I've lived it.

I agree with you there, I think there is a tendency to romanticize the life of a blue collar worker, and thing of them as the noble simple idealized "proletariat", when as you point out the stereotypes are stereotypes for a reason.

But I have to wonder is part of that because of the brain drain in the trades that resulted from everyone going to college and feeling they had to do white collar work. Before a smart, observant, hardworking young man could become an electrician and by virtue of being observant and quick witted could succeeded and excel and become an outstanding electrician that could bring about innovation and elevate his work team. Nowadays though the same hardworking intelligent young man is being told that the trades are for stupid people, and he is too smart for that and wouldn't it be much better to go get a college degree so he can get a "real job". Then twenty years and $50,000 of student debt later he finds himself as a project manager trapped in a standup meeting at 8:00 on a Wednesday morning, hating his life, drowning in unfulfilled despair and wondering what went wrong with his life.

I just think that part of the stereotypes about the trades has become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Interesting take.

Two things I would comment on are:

1) the amount of debt, try 150-200k

2) in this example, how can you know that he wouldn't hate his life if he chose the trades?

According to this source[1], the average student loan debt for a new 4-year graduate in 2020 is $28,400. Of course, this is highly variable depending on the student, but $150-200k is not typical for a 4-year degree.

[1]: https://www.credible.com/blog/statistics/average-student-loa...

That feels low to me. I dropped out after half a year at a state college and had to pay $20k. I do not believe those numbers.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/stude...

There seems to be a bunch of variability here. In support of my original assertion of 150-200k, that site has multiple average debts for different fields in my stated range.

Actually, the article you linked confirms my original statement. Look at the "graduate loan debt" section.

From the article you linked: Average student loan debt for a professional degree from a private, nonprofit institution $243,300

I have no idea how they got 28k when most every number I see on that page is much larger.

There is a huge, huge difference between the debt you take on in undergrad vs grad programs vs law school vs medical school, etc. You are looking at the numbers for the most expensive programs (that also result in some of the highest paying careers!) to make the case that people have high debt, but those are the minority. They also tend to be the most educated and have the highest future earnings potential. Most people do not advance past an undergraduate degree. The 28k number is far more relevant, and within the article you linked.

I don't know what to believe anymore

Your page says the same number as the parent for a bachelor degree: $28950.

All the other numbers you see that are higher are graduate degrees. Comparing a medical student debt (4+ years more of school beyond the 4 of undergrad, residency, perhaps a specialty on top) to only a 4 year degree is not representative of the vast majority of student debt.

I have hopes that the invisible hand will provide some corrective feedback. Because at the end of the day, someone has to do the electrical work and the construction work etc. If it can't be done without some amount of IQ the market will adjust for that.

This is already coming to pass in hot real-estate markets where it's almost impossible to get any sort of trade help. It feels like most of the skilled tradesmen (and women) have a plethora of job choices and they by far prefer to build new housing instead of dealing with nitpicky rich people for the same money.

I agree we are in an unstable situation and it will equal out over time. My main concern is the burden it places on us all in the meantime. Those most vulnerable are going to be hit the hardest.

>This is already coming to pass in hot real-estate markets where it's almost impossible to get any sort of trade help.

It's just like most programmers preferring to work on greenfield projects rather than maintenance.

I absolutely understand your POV, I've worked crap jobs too (dropped out of uni), and I have kids who have to suffer through the classist UK education system. But my point is that this was not inevitable, it's the result of societal and individual choices made over the last 40 years.

> if you've ever worked in the trades you would know that a large portion of them are ignorant and uneducated

Yes, and that's why there used to be a view that adult education was to be promoted and encouraged.

My point is that at some point, we just stopped aspiring to a better tomorrow and accepted we're all doomed to live in hell. Which, inevitably, condemned us to a life of pain.

> Manual labor, regardless of how well it pays takes a toll on your body and generally pays less than a lot of the highly sought after knowledge worker jobs

In many places a skilled plumber or electrician earns more than an office worker or even junior engineer. A skilled highway construction worker earns more than the country average. A crane operator makes more than the average software developer. There are many surprises when it comes to blue collar job payment.

I think you're comparing entry level tech jobs to mid to sr level blue collar jobs.

Take the electrician for example. Minimum 4 years of work as an apprentice, then you have to do a year of schooling, pay for it out of pocket, take a test and your making about as much as a entry level developer who only needed to spend 1 year studying in their free time, spent $400 on a laptop, got all their learning for free online, and isn't doing back breaking, more dangerous work. And from there the tech worker's salary is going to go to 150k+ in 3-5 years. You don't even need college to do that anymore.

Same thing with the crane operator. Starting salary for tech is more, requires less time to get started, and the tech worker's salary goes up quick after starting. You don't start out on the path to being a crane operator at 50k+ a year. You start helping doing rigging and spotting for $12 an hour.

I lived both sides of it, trust me. I see where your coming from, some blue collar jobs pay more than you'd think, but in reality there's just no comparison.

The one you enjoy the most that can provide you a decent living.

Not everyone can work an information sector job.