Hacker News Reader

Comment by thedevelopnik | Hacker News Reader

The thing that kills me is even these investors seem to see Peloton as a hell of a lot more than it is. The “peers” they list are Netflix and Roku. No. Peloton’s peers are NordicTrack and, you know, other companies that make exercise equipment and sell fitness subscriptions.

View on HN

Yep, the product had all the signs of being a passing fad that hit at just the right moment. I mean, it's an overpriced exercise bike hooked up to a tablet.

I looked at the company back when it started getting buzz and I couldn't see any fundamental differentiation, competitive moat or flywheel synergies. The price-point and space requirements limited the addressable market and the inventory is heavy metal with long lead times plus high carrying and distribution costs. When is Wall Street going to learn to be skeptical of non-tech companies pretending to have tech synergies?

The deck is obviously a typical activist investor hit job designed to highlight the worst aspects of the company's recent performance but my takeaway on Peloton is, after setting aside all the over-hyped expectations (which never should have been believed), I'm actually somewhat impressed by how well the company has managed to do for what it really is. In an alternate universe where Peloton never went through the hype-cycle, never took too much money or tried to grow too fast, there's probably a sustainable business there.

I disagree, and think that it could be a decent profitable company in the long term, as long as they can maintain premium brand status.

That said, anyone who bought into the idea that it would have margins and scaling like a tech stock had/has their head in the clouds.

The problem with "premium" gym equipment is that ultimately it doesn't matter. It's not similar to other hardware which allows you perform your task better, like a faster laptop, phone with larger battery, washing machine that is quieter and more energy efficient. Your muscles do not care that you are pedaling or running on a $2000 piece of equipment compared to a $500. Your heart can't even tell if you're running or cycling or whatever you're doing besides how much demand there is for blood. Marketing this similarly to Apple seems difficult.

The Peloton experience and loyalty stems from the instructors and the classes - not the hardware.

I have no doubt that there is a market for $2K bikes. There is probably a market for $10K bikes. My skepticism is that you can produce them at 90% profit and double the size of the market year over year for decades.

Totally, the problem is all expectations. I bought a NordicTrack S22i (their peloton competitor) in early 2019, and love it. I pay like $450 a year or something for my family subscription to them and occasional maintenance on the hardware. Pretty sure NordicTrack has a decent profit margin and is a nicely sustainable business given that my mom had a NordicTrack 30 years ago.

They have the same features as Peloton in terms of classes and stuff, but nobody is looking to them to be the next Netflix. That’s the space Peloton is playing in.

A version of that slide was in pre IPO pitch decks. This has always been their argument. If I recall correctly, they included projected growth curves too based on FAANG.

You missed Match. Peloton is a streaming dating service.

This is not a good idea. Send a wink or something.. reproduce the whole creeping gym thing.

More seriously has Peloton figured out how to get that in the gym experience where maybe you work out with friends and can talk and see them while doing the virtual class?

If I worked for Peloton I'd be creeped-out about the higher-ups coming up with a flirting feature, but they could make it opt-in/not enabled by default, and only if both parties swiped right should the winks be sent.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com