Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B | Hacker News Reader

Officials: LA-SF high-speed rail cost will increase to $105B

apnews.com

19 pointsren_engineer17 comments

The amount of money that goes to graft and consultants and "assessments" on these projects is insane. Even when you account for higher land and labor prices it shouldn't be this much. US has eminent domain, US has domestic technology, there's just no reason that its $105B when China would have built 10x this much rail in the 15 years since prop 1a was passed for that cost. 1300 km for the proposed final length, means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built.

[1]https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/c...

>The increases are partly due to commitments aimed at minimizing community disruption, such as distancing the train from the Cesar E. Chavez National Monument in the Central Valley and tunneling tracks near the Burbank airport, project officials said

that's pretty much the difference right there. China would go straight through the neighborhood and force people to move. Plus they wouldn't take years to do potential environmental impact studies

Eminent domain in the US can remove stuff.

But I can't figure out how things actually work in china.

It seems they have some people fighting back - do a web search for "chinese nail house" and you'll see some interesting houses existing amidst huge infrastructure projects

> means it would have cost about $26B in China[1] at $20M/km, and it would have already been built.

CAHSR budget costs are quoted in year-of-expenditure (YoE) dollars, assuming 3% yearly inflation. The $105 billion figure is for phase 1, which is scheduled for completion in 2040. Some of the most costly portions, such as crossing the mountains and building through developed areas, are scheduled for after 2030. So a sizable portion of that $105 billion figure is simply an artifact of monetary inflation.

IOW, a large part of the cost increase is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we were to simply commit and build things out as quickly as possible--as China does--a large part of it could be avoided. OTOH, that comes with its own problems. And of course many people assume the whole thing is hopelessly beset with corruption, so the project is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't.

One glimmer of hope: according to the report it seems that their reforms (including changes in leadership) at streamlining right-of-way acquisition have seen some success:

> The results of these changes have been outstanding. Parcel acquisitions are being completed on a steadier pace each month. The division is now delivering parcels ahead of the revised schedule. As of this writing, 2,067 parcels have been delivered to the construction contractors. For the frst time in the program’s history, we have met the 90% threshold for number of parcels delivered versus total needed.

Also, environmental review for most of the phase 1 route, SF to LA, should be completed this year:

> Today, we have environmentally cleared approximately 300 miles, and by July 2022 the Authority is intending to have cleared some 430 miles of the 500-mile Phase 1 system. Achieving these milestones is an essential step in the Authority’s strategy to advance the entire statewide program and be competitive for new federal funding opportunities, further described below.

I'd love to know a breakdown of how much of this money is profit to layer upon layer of contractors.

So why do it. how about instead we build fleets of autonomous buses and give them special lanes.

Just don’t keep throwing money at this

Corruption

We don't even need autonomous vehicles, the route from LA to SF is mostly only 2 lanes. Add 2 more lanes and raise the speed limits.

This project will bankrupt the state, if it continues. We have lost the ability to control costs on major infrastructure projects. The only question on the cost is how many time the original cost it will be.

Here is a timeline of cost escalations on the project. https://www.enotrans.org/article/timeline-california-high-sp...

And we are clearly not near done with the escalations.

These two cities have a combined metro population in the realm of ~30M. At $100,000M this will cost ~$30,000 per person. That’s enough money to buy every man, woman, and child hundreds of flights.

Wouldn't that be ~$3000 ? Where's the extra zero coming from?

Stupidity

Monora.....

Er,

Hyperloop!

I second the "dedicated road lane with busses". Well, that probably won't be 180mph or whatever.

The US idea of "high speed" rail is underwhelming anyway.

This project is such a joke. What an incompetent state we have.

This project needs to end. Millions have been spent, nothing has been built, and it's all somehow been funneled into pockets of people that are friends with the Pelosis.

> nothing has been built

There is the Fresno trench. https://goo.gl/maps/5WGQ4xL3JbFEUn7z8

San Joaquin River Viaduct & Pergola https://goo.gl/maps/n6abmFNpaKsgCz1K8

Avenue 8 Overpass, you can drive on it. https://goo.gl/maps/DjMrzjUDjWEM5uJe8

Some sort of drainage ditch overpasses? https://goo.gl/maps/b72P1EJ7yuDYZWmg7 https://goo.gl/maps/uK2YaCe58M9iJQB3A

Avenue 12 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ztZQheYPnVhkFSWf8

Fresno River Viaduct https://goo.gl/maps/UzzLz7sXqfx7saq2A

Road 27 Grade Separation https://goo.gl/maps/ePVwuve6wKiikUwJA

South Avenue Grade Separation, before https://goo.gl/maps/DuLS1rT1HBQtLcCx6

South Avenue Grade Separation, after https://goo.gl/maps/kw8ugCY2h75htiYQ8

Conejo Viaduct https://www.buildhsr.com/gallery/photos/_2021-10-28_conejo_d...

State Route 43 Tied Arch Bridge https://goo.gl/maps/5ZmoACLW3n6mG8Y3A

Wide Shot https://goo.gl/maps/efgyXHeUprddCjBU9

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