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Comment by gmiller123456 | Hacker News Reader

What evidence do you (or anyone) have to support that there is an incoming recession?

I think it's fair regardless to try to prepare or ask how one would prepare for it, economic down turns happen it's a case of when not if. (Well, to be fair I'm extremely curious regardless.)

That's not how recessions, economics, or finance works. No one has evidence for any future events.

People have theories and models when it comes to economic and financial forecasting, not evidence.

Theories and models would count as evidence, just like it does for the weather. When someone talks about "the incoming rescission", it sounds an awful lot like they've read or heard something that convinced them one is on the way. It's worth asking them to share that with us.

It seems that you define the difference between "talking" and and "a theory" as the stuff you like is theories and therefore evidence and the stuff you dislike is talking therefore not evidence. you'll have to excuse me for not finding this compelling.

A theory means people talking about what they think.

Go read this thread. it's full of theories.

People knowing the weather prediction doesn't change the weather though. In terms of non-linearity, economy is way harder to predict because of that.

I wasn't claiming it did. In order for an economic prediction to change the people's behavior, someone still has to make the prediction.

The Fed is most likely about to start a cycle of interest rate hikes. Historically, such cycles result in a recession about 85% of the time.

Maybe this time is different. But your default assumption should be that there will be a recession in the next year or two, and you should be prepared for that.

uh, what? citation please. The Fed tends to hike rates when markets are otherwise doing well. That is, during bull markets.

I read a monthly report[0].

[0]: https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair...

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