For what it's worth, the 14" MacBook Pro is nearly the same size. 0.34" wider (left to right) and only 0.35" deeper. Smaller bezels and the fact that the 14.2" screen is measured diagonally mean that it's actually not that much bigger than the 13.3" device (basically a third of an inch, 0.9cm). I was also worried about the size of the 14" MBP, but it's the best Apple machine I've ever owned and it's not even close (and I was coming from a 2020 13" MacBook Pro with one of the 28W processors).
I'm skeptical of a refreshed 13" MBP. Apple doesn't like having products that only have minor differentiations and offering a screen size that is only half an inch wider seems to muddy the waters a lot. Offering a 13" MBP with M2 Pro would mean pricing it at essentially the same price point as the 14". The 16" is $200 more expensive (for comparable models) with a 2" difference.
Likewise, people talked a lot about how the 13" MBP and the 13" MacBook Air were essentially the same machine, but the 13" MBP is $250 more. What does that get you? 500 nits instead of 400 nits and 10-15% more battery? A fan that seems to never kick in? We know Apple is ditching the TouchBar which was the differentiator for the current M1 MacBook Pro (even if most people hated it, it did increase the cost of the unit).
It just seems unlikely that Apple will want to offer a screen that is only half an inch less wide for basically the same laptop. And realistically, if they're moving to the notch and the 9:5.85 aspect-ratio (~16:10.4), they'll either need to increase the screen size from 13.3" or you'll end up with a narrower screen than the old 16:10. The 16:10 screen should be 11.3" wide so they'd need to boost it to 13.5" to keep the same width. At that point, what's the difference between the 14.2" and 13.5"? 0.7" on the diagonal, 0.6" in width. By contrast, the 16.2" is 2" more in the diagonal and 1.7" more in width - a significant difference when choosing which machine to purchase. The differentiation in screen size between a 14 and 16" MBP is 2.85x larger than the difference in screen size between a 13" and 14".
Either Apple creates a 2022 13" MBP that's essentially an identical product to the MacBook Air or they create a product nearly identical to the 14" MacBook Pro.