I don't think FB would make a move like this without feeling somewhat confident. My guess is they're leaning into the effect it'll have on small businesses if they suddenly vanish from EU.
For example, Sweden has two digital markets. One was bought by eBay but the other one continued until FB introduced its own market which unlike this one is "free" and doesn't even require you to leave your filter bubble and log into a different site.
If FB pulls out they will have a fighting chance to survive.
Right now, if you don't exist on facebook, it's a bad hit to your sales. However, existing on facebook requires the goodwill of... well facebook. They can wipe you out of existence in a few clicks, just by deleting your page.
It happened to me once. I was suddenly banned from posting ads on instagram. No explanation given. Then I appealed, and it was restored. Still no explanation given.
Of course I stopped paying those <insert insulting word here> pigs. But still, the situation remains: you have to be on facebook, but they can unjustly dispose of you.
Meta has a monopoly on communication channels. It's not better, it's just a monopoly. That needs to change.