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Comment by MartinCron | Hacker News Reader

Facebook's complete and total collapse is about three months into the future.

This is where it has always been, and where it always will be.

I couldn't agree more. Granted, I think it will be a much slower process than say, the Digg exodus. I think in the next few months if Facebook doesn't make some drastic improvements (read: simpler), it will be past the point of saving. No turning back.

I think MartinCron's point was that everyone always predicts Facebook's demise "three months into the future," and that this will also turn out to be nothing.

If that's the point, I disagree with him. We've seen far too many unstoppable behemoths collapse under their own weight to believe that anything is too big to fail. The difference between Facebook and, say, AOL, Yahoo, IBM, or any other company with a massive user base is that Facebook is run by a CEO with very little experience (compared to AOL, Yahoo, IBM, etc) and no fall-back plan that could let them remain profitable and relevant when their moment on top is over.

I think Facebook will fail. I just doubt that it'll fail anytime soon. I don't particularly like this redesign, but I think it's just going to be a blip that people grumble about and get over in a couple weeks.

Thanks for getting the joke.

I'm really just pointing out that every single dire prediction about Facebook's demise hasn't happened, and I don't see how this one is any different from the last N times.

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