I'm wondering the same - or perhaps biological weapons? It's obviously a cover story, their farmland and farmer needs didn't just all of a sudden lead to requiring the amount it exports.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammonium_nitrate#Health_hazard...
In smart, organized nations, they'll hopefully realize this and simply go into debt - ideally at the same rate as other allies who ideally share the burden, so no one is "getting behind" more than the other ally.
But nothing like having food prices go through the roof to destabilize society.