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Comment by thurn | Hacker News Reader

The overwhelming conclusion I've drawn from this pandemic is that it's ultimately about people's level of trust in their own ability to analyze data vs trust in authority figures. There have been so many examples of 'vaccines cause harm!' articles that fundamentally misunderstand basic statistical concepts like selection bias or simpson's paradox (see the covid-datascience.com blog for lots more of these).

Is your prior on 'I will not make a significant analytic error' higher than 'the FDA analyzed the available data correctly'?

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In reality, few people have the time or want to make the effort to comb through and analyze original sources. So most of us rely to varying extent on who we trust and consider to have accurate opinions or assessments.

One huge problem with COVID has been the emergence of essentially propaganda pieces masquerading as detailed, rigorous analysis. These give people a false sense of confidence- "Hey I've done my research!" when in reality you can google for 20 minutes and come up with impressive looking links for whatever view you are already predisposed to believe.

I'm sure these existed before, but COVID has taken things to another level.

> few people have the time or want to make the effort to comb through and analyze original sources

And they lack the expertise regardless, and they can't gain the expertise without schooling and professional experience. We are dependant on others, whether we like it or not.

> the emergence of essentially propaganda pieces masquerading as detailed, rigorous analysis

> I'm sure these existed before, but COVID has taken things to another level.

I don't know that it's another level. The long, incredibly detailed dives into one issue or another have been around for decades.

This is essentially what I expected when the pandemic started. We created a monster of misinformation and disinformation, the 'post-truth' society; the consequences are obviously and completely predictable.

> I'm sure these existed before, but COVID has taken things to another level.

Similar as to the other posted said - this type of fiction writing has existed before COVID. It's just that now you're all reading the same statistical fiction.

Essentially - one genre of statistical fiction got popular. Whereas before everyone was reading different genres.

Impressive looking indeed...

https://hcqmeta.com/

(I really wonder at the effort spent on this...)

> , few people have the time or want to make the effort to comb through and analyze original sources.

I mean, unless it's your profession, you're not. At best, you're reading an article (with summarized data that you hope was aggregated correctly) in a journal. To the best of my knowledge, the raw datasets that those are based on are rarely shared.

And your trust in the government. If your prior on the government is that they aren't to be trusted then it doesn't matter how good of a job the FDB did in analyzing the data -- you aren't going to believe what they release to the public.

I think this is the bigger issue. Most people I know who say, "I'll do my own research" are the same people who asked me what kind of computer to buy. And they know a lot more about technology than medicine. But its they don't trust the government.

I'm triple-vaccinated, but I did it grudgingly, after reviewing as much data as I could.

My prior is "public health is top priority for the powers that be and my individual health is not". Throughout this pandemic this has been demonstrated repeatedly.

Therefore when authorities insist that I do something, I have to try to look up stats for my age group and category and do my best to interpret that correctly as a layman, because authorities might be asking me to do something that is safer for the general public at my expense as an individual.

> I did it grudgingly

For me it was the opposite. Back in Sept/October govt was telling people "no need to get a booster; it's fine" and then "get it after 6 months only" while reading about the Israel experience would have told you that it was safe and prudent to just get it after 5mo

Look where big bosses from FDA ended up.

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