Hacker News Reader

Comment by ahmed_ds | Hacker News Reader

The fact of the matter is they still have close 2 billion active logins each day. Even if they have settled in matters of user acquisitions they haven't stopped harvesting increasing amounts of profit from each users. I would like to know how the statistics of revenue per user would be from this point on.

View on HN

I'd like clear qualifying of what a login means. Does that mean I goto facebook.com or open FB app at least once a day? I imagine "daily login" could be artificially inflated in all sorts of ways like having fb.com tab open on my browser and never actually going to it as one example.

Yeah, I "log in" a few times a day to answer messages. I don't think that should be considered a user since I'm not consuming anything facebook-related, just responding to messages because everyone is on facebook

daily active users.. so if you login 1x per 24 hours.

Also: does visiting a web page with Facebook comments or embedded Facebook video count as login?

>>artificially inflated in all sorts of ways like having fb.com tab open on my browser and never actually going to it as one example.

Worse, Logged in once, then told Facebook to keep themselves logged in forever. This technically means users who have logged in.

The revenue guidance for next quarter is not very great either, so given the user numbers ARPU is not growing

They're still growing year-over-year. They were just off their target in the last quarter by 3%. They're valued at $3.67 per share versus the $3.78 expected. Their stock literally dropped ~25% because they were only 3% off expected earnings. And lost 0.15% active users, which is expected as the world opens up again. I don't see what the big deal is. The market is overreacting.

Post close trading can be swing by a lot. The reaction I think is not because that they are off by 3%, the future growth looks only to be pretty dull , perhaps also why FB is making such huge gamble on VR.

The high P/E big tech companies enjoy is on basis of the implicit expectation to keep growing fast[1], if that on confidence on growth is no longer there, then price will reflect closer to a more traditional tech stock.

Tesla trades at P/E of 185x, Amazon - 58x, Microsoft - 35x, Google - 29x and FB - 23x[2]. I think it accurately reflects the market expectation of their respective future growth.

---

[1] Same reason Tesla is valued so high despite relatively modest revenue, the expectation is massive growth on the back of their lead in the space and the accelerating shift towards EV.

[2] SAP, IBM, ORCL all trade in the same range today.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com