Hacker News Reader

Comment by sidewndr46 | Hacker News Reader

Isn't this how every major betting operation works? I'm not counting lotteries because although you could argue that you are "betting" on some numbers anyone with a 6th grade education that there is no difference in expected outcomes if you choose different numbers.

Why would bookmakers ever take bets from someone they don't expect to make money from?

View on HN

> Why would bookmakers ever take bets from someone they don't expect to make money from?

Well, bookmakers like to minimize their risk. So, suppose Person X is going to bet on team A, but most people have already bet on team B. The bookmaker thinks team A is far more likely to win, but he still takes the bet. Then he goes from being a gambler to having a balanced book and making a known profit regardless of who wins.

But if my goal is to minimize risk and I consistently see a single person making winning bets, why would I take that bet? It's just bad business.

Most sportsbooks do eventually limit the bets sizes for consistent winners. But if word gets out, all you do is ban winning bettors and take on losing bettors. No one would want to play with you, and your business suffers. So it's a balancing act.

This is why the popular sportsbooks still allow big bets for reputation's sake.

There is actually a difference in expected outcomes at lottery if you choose different numbers. Commonly played number will be shared among all winners, so your share will be less than with rare numbers.

The less used numbers still have a negative expected value, but you are correct in that numbers 1-12 and 13-31 do have lower payouts because people commonly bet on dates like birthdays.

The problem with this is it presupposes you have some actual chance of winning. You don't, no one splits $0.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com