> Tesla, the stock, is currently priced as if it will never face competition.
That is completely false. Have you actually looked at the annalists who cover Tesla? Every single one includes a huge amount of completion coming online.
Have ever even looked at those models? Can you sight what models you are basing your 'analysis' on and can you explain what they are getting wrong.
> The fact is that the market will soon be flooded with excellent electric cars from Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and more.
'flooded' is a nice and vague and meaningless concept. We actually have a understanding of how much lithium there is and will be for the next few years. The ramp up continues to follow typical trends.
You wont magically have a 15x increase in EV sales, no matter if every OEM announces 500 new models over the next 5 years.
People predicted the same thing literally every year since 2016. I remember last year, people were all about how VW is gone leave Tesla in the dust and how VW can just spit out millions of EV. Because they know how to make cars and Tesla doesn't.
But even VW, it actually took quite a few years and huge investment are still around 450k BEV globally. Tesla added around 450k BEV this year.
All those companies you mention will fact the same issues that VW did. They want magically just 5x their BEV production in a year. Its just not in the cards (unless maybe you are starting from a tiny base of a few cars like Toyota) if you understand the battery and battery materials industry.
Your analysis also contradicts even the CEO of VW who said that catching Tesla in BEV sales by 2025 will be very difficult for them. And VW is a few years into this, Toyota has barley even started.
> And this is in the year 2022. It's only going to get worse and worse from here on out, as the big companies bring their whole networks to bear. Even
Yeah so bad for Tesla that they are gone make all the profits from car servicing and that they can gain all the profits from raising prices rather then the dealers absorbing that margin. I sure Tesla hates that.
> The preponderance of evidence favors the idea that Tesla will shrink and the other companies will grow, in the electric market.
Please show some of that evidence. Because the actual real existing evidence is that Tesla has been growing incredibly fast. Tesla own guidance, expectation by analysts and various demand estimations is that Tesla will continue to grow at similar speeds in 2022.
Tesla has 2 new huge factories coming online right now. So in your estimation despite 2 new production facilities they will sell less cars in the future? When will this happen in your opinion. Please tell me how many cars you assume they will produce in 2023 and then you can honestly go back an check if you were right.
How accurate were your predictions about Tesla over the last 5 years? Did you expect them to grow as they did? If not, have you changed any of your opinions?