China is already the worlds largest economy in terms of raw output (PPP terms).
China is already the worlds largest consumer market.
There’s a reasonable chance it exceeds USA in nominal GDP it if it grows at 5+% till 2030. This year they grew at 8.5 %
Given that they are hitting a demographic cliff in a few years, it is not so guaranteed anymore. It will be an interesting next couple of decades for China.
> This year they grew at 8.5 %
A lot of that is real estate, the same real estate that speculators are banking on will sell to poor farmers for a million dollars when they re-locate to cities (and the same farmers who aren't having that many kids anymore...).
Demographic doom is frequently cited for China but I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics. Demographics can be topped up using immigration. Without immigration the US would also be in demographic decline.
There is a reason people move to the US. Good luck to the CCP attempting to reproduce that.
Also machines are coming for your jobs, you wont need that many people anyway.
Highly qualified workers from Europe still come to the US too.
Doom of Southern Europe, however, is talked about quite a lot.
The problem is that their average age moves up, and productivity decreases as people hit or near retirement. Unless China starts opening up to immigration (not impossible), they are going to be Japan without being rich yet.
> I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics.
Europe has immigration. China does not. If China is willing to embrace e.g. the African aspiring immigrants who have come to Guangzhou in recent years, things could change quickly, but I'm not really seeing. Japan did not, and that's why you can get a house for a reasonable price in Tokyo these days.
Is there a better website to search for these reasonably priced houses?
[0] https://housingjapan.com/buy/search/#c={%22p[h]%22:%22100000...
https://resources.realestate.co.jp/news/how-much-does-it-cos...
I only mention it because someone brought it up a few days ago when there was a debate on why real estate prices were so high in the USA.
On the left in price range you can select max 10,000万円 to see houses under 100 million. Zoom out on the map to start seeing some dots.
The US GDP grew 5.7% last year.
> China is already the worlds largest consumer market.
No it isn’t.
To be fair that's only because it bounced back from the covid impacts in the previous year.It had been hovering around the 2.5% mark for the previous decade.
On the other hand no economist believes the figures that come out of China, they are far too consistent.
People bought far fewer goods from the USSR than we do from China.
Not with their current demographic trends.
There are some scattered final assembly here and there, like screwing together the Mac Pro in Texas, and I think the iPhone production in India is non-trivial, but for all intents and purposes the vast, vast majority of Apple's production happens in China, performed by Chinese nationals, who are themselves subject to Chinese law, in facilities wholly inside of Chinese jurisdiction.
It doesn't matter much if Apple sells a single unit in China, from a "kowtowing to the Chinese government" perspective: China controls Apple fully as without China's consent and permission, Apple cannot produce anything for sale in significant quantity.