You started with the weakest argument, that was based all hearsay and had no smoking gun. It was first only because the Twitter thread told the story in chronological order. And then.. you stopped there?

For me the strongest argument is that hours after they reached #1 on HN, Stripe posted, got #1 themselves, then Bolt's own post somehow disappeared, suggesting foul play. Twice, in two separate occasions, this is alleged to have happened. This is both pretty damning for HN itself (and in this case, @dang has some explaining to do), and pretty easy to confirm or refute with Wayback machine and such.

edit: but it appears.. Stripe post was earlier than Bolt's own post? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30068406 Were Bolt posts even removed? And if they were removed, for which reason, each of them?