The customers who repeatedly buy doomed products

> When they move away from one harbinger ZIP code, they tend to end up in another harbinger ZIP code.

> And if they move to a non-harbinger ZIP code — an area where consumers have popular, mainstream tastes — their propensity to purchase flops doesn’t change. This suggests that harbinger purchasing behavior has more to do with geography than social influence.

No, this suggests that those harbingers are not swayed by popular opinion, not that they are influenced by geography, but that they like to live in places which are good according to their taste.

We have to keep in mind that for FMCG companies their definition of failure can be very different from what the majority of us perceives to be a failure.

With that said, there's two things that made me question this type of customers:

- The customers don't know they're choosing losing products (at best they know it's deeply discounted products);

- The products are in the market, what I mean by that is that these are trialed and tested products, with space on shelves, with budgets for marketing - it's not like they're terrible products, they have standards and had positive feedback somewhere in the development cycle;

So if the "doom-bringers" are buying products that are already being phased out with discounts, they aren't predicting the product demise, it already happened and they're just scrapping it. If they're buying for the novelty, they could be a group susceptible to advertising or that simply likes new things, and in this industry a lot of new products have difficulty sustaining the metrics required to keep themselves in the market. Or both.

I don't see much of a behavior that can predict the outcome of products...

Recently heard tell of places that sell failed products in bulk on discount; but they are determined as failed before they reach this stage. Wouldn't seem surprising if grocers and distributors sell failing products on discount in areas less sensitive to social pressures. Seems this would be the inevitable outcome.

If they knew what they were doing, these researchers would have controlled for distribution, price, and so on.

It seems like people who like novelty are also likely to have a more iconoclastic tendencies. "I'm gonna pick Zune over iPod because iPod is too popular!". But i have no research to back that up.

It seems like "harbinger customers" are really clusters of 3 groups.

Price sensitive people who buy the product that isnt moving because retail is fire selling it. Price sensitivity also explains why they live around each other alot.

People who enjoy novelty. Most things fail, and if you optimize towards novelty most things you choose will have a pattern of failure.

People with an iconoclastic trend. "I pick it because it's NOT popular!" Should be self explanatory.

Strikes me as an urban legend, a statistical tautology, or both.

Buc Wheats, Target's Italian Sodas, some toaster oven Glazed Donuts, Campbells Meatball Alphabet, it's late so the other 20 brands that died I forget right now

If I loved it, it got discontinued.

If folks want to dig into this subject, harbingers are also called anti-influencers.

Did they really put masks on the toons when they were together?

Crystal Pepsi. Just ordinary Pepsi but without the teeth-staining dye added. What kind of deviant prevert would prefer that?

There's nothing I want more than a Watermelon Oreo right now...

this seems like marketing is more tied to geography and segment biases. they tend mass market and thus seek out the LCD and miss niche opportunities....

Wait, they had Cheetos lip balm and I missed it?