Thanks!
> I think the one major difference between the last 10 years and the.com era was the lack of viable business models in that time
In quite a few cases, yes -- I agree. In many other cases, though, I think it was the sudden unavailability of capital that did in some companies that otherwise could have been viable. Given enough time and money, poster-child dot-com failures like Pets.com, WebVan, and Kozmo.com might have well become a Chewy, Instacart, and Doordash.
> Also, the interest rates within the last 10 years are going to be most similar to the ones that the FED is contemplating implementing over the next couple of years. The rates in the early 2000s were significantly higher in the 3-6% range.
Maybe. I for one wouldn't dare make any predictions as to what will happen to rates. I mean, in 1972, when the 10-year treasury was ~5%, no one -- no one -- even imagined that it would increase persistently for a decade until it ~16% in 1982. In 2000, when the 10-year rate was ~6%, no one -- no one -- even imagined it would decline persistently over the next two decades, hitting ~0% in 2020. Today, no one -- including me -- can imagine how or why rates would go all the way up to 6%, let alone 16%... but I'm sure the future will find a way to surprise us.
> Last, the third trend that's important is just the volume of dollars going into venture Capital which is 20 times what it was during that period of time
It depends on whether that large flow would be impacted in the face a persistent bear market -- e.g., could a large proportion of LPs default on capital calls due to losses in other markets? Keep in mind, VC funding declined by a factor of ~10x in 2000-2002. Could it decline by a factor of 10x this time around? I think that's unlikely, but we can't rule it out simply because the amounts are larger.