I'm just sad my stock portfolio took a dive. I started to invest into the market for the first time during the pandemic (thanks to RH). Not sure what I learned so far.
In short: there’s never been a 20 year period where the broad-based US large-cap equities index have lost money. The future isn’t guaranteed, but I’m betting on that record to continue.
Definitely happened in Japan and Europe. France and UK are only just exceeding the large cap index price from 1999 - and likely to drop back down again.
Y’know, time in the market beats timing the market
Does any have a rebuttal?
If you invested money in stocks that you need in the short term, you are beginning to learn why you don't do that.
People are increasingly holding their money in stocks even close to when they need it (e.g. retirement) because rates for safer bonds have been mostly below inflation. Of course the market can go down, if you get really unlucky, it can take a few decades to recover, but that hasn't happened for just short of a hundred years now (as long as since the last major pandemic).
15% off from what? 15% off the maximum value achieved during a period of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus?
Given the fed reversal, it's looking pretty clear that stocks will fall quite a bit further. Buying equities now is tantamount to fighting the fed.
Timing the market never works, so if you sit out you won't know when to get back in, but the entity with the power to dramatically influence asset prices has broadcast their intentions and is about to undertake actions which will significantly devalue equities over the next 6-12 months.
It sounds like you have information that isn't already priced into the market. That's awesome. You can get rich.
It's being priced in over time. The market doesn't immediately price in future events. We've only rolled back the last 2-4 months of gains so far.
I've already reacted accordingly. There's a lucky Boglehead or stonks investor who was happy to catch the falling knife when I sold. I feel sorry for them but what can you do? People want to believe simple market themes and not look at the driving forces. I'll go back to buy and hold in 6-12 months depending on the fed.
I'd sell more but a lot of it was already in dividend paying stocks like Kraft Heinz which are doing ok and should weather the storm a bit better.
If the swings bother you, investing in companies with dividends has the additional upside that they generally pay dividends regardless of the stock price.
Granted cherry picking any specific time period is not very predictive.
The only two prices that matter are the price you buy at and the price you sell at. Everything in between might as well have never happened.