With Omnicron spreading as it is, I'm kind of expecting that everyone will get infected this wave. And afterwards, everyone is then either vaccinated or recovered or dead and we can drop all of the precautions. What am I overlooking?
You can get it more than once.
>> You can get it more than once.
We were lucky that Omicron was relatively mild, the virus can mutate and become more deadly. The more people get infected the mutation risk increases.
Assuming that the protection of a previous infection is approximately equivalent to vaccination, then the GP’s question is spot on - after Omicron burns it’s way through the population, we will effectively be at “full vaccination”. At that point, what are we trying to contain?
Right now we are dealing with the fact that omicron hits hard, and fills hospitals. Here in Maine we did okay through previous waves, so we have plenty of people with no "natural" exposure to covid. Our hospitals are pretty much over capacity. So what happens if you get into a car crash and need medical attention if there's no room for you? It's somewhat unanswered.
Either option, thousands more will die and everything will be open in a year or two.
I'm very glad that not all places on Earth have taken this destructive and defeatist view.
Containing an extremely contagious airborne pathogen is not the same as not simply assuming that "everyone will get infected" (which suggests that any activity to contain or restrict the spread of infection is 100% wasteful).
Mutations. An increased infections means increased chance of evolution of this virus. If the virus changes in the right way, current vaccinations wont work anymore. Another problem is if it becomes more mutable, we could have waves of seasonal covid that like a cold doesn't care if you had another variant.
It's in our best interest to try to stop the spread as much as possible.
Like other biological entities, viruses evolve to survive and replicate more efficiently. If the hosts die off, survival and replication is stunted.
We’re not out of the woods yet w/r/t dangerous variants, but health risks will likely wane over time, and we’re obviously well past the point of meaningfully controlling transmission. We will absolutely experience seasonal waves and variance similar to the cold.
All of that said, we need to do some realistic cost benefit analysis at this point. We have a new cold-like virus on the planet, and we’re implementing new ways to protect ourselves and treat it (if we’re smart). At this point, are the mental health and quality of life sacrifices we’re making worth it in the face of an inevitable endemic?
Say there's a group of 100... like my county 42 of them are vaccinated. Say 10 die.... now you have 90... 42 vaccinated... that's now 46%...
More deadly strain comes along, hitting the unvaxxed, and maybe 10 more die.. vaccinated rate is now 52.5%..
Eventually anti-science people will just fall victim to evolution and we'll trend towards 100% vaccinated, and then less vector for mutation.
I think it'll always be w/ us....just maybe w/ less load via updated vaccines, we can continually keep it below high mortality thresholds for the general public, and lower viral load is lower chances for spread, and for mutations.
I'm at the point of not much caring anymore, esp as far as anti-vax people come, though it'd be nice if we could triage them better where all other people come first in the hierarchy of needs and then --and only then if there are available beds can they receive one.
I mean for decades we've done the same thing, except it was rich > poor... not it's people who trust doctors and are health responsible like organ donors are expected to be, who would receive first dibs at care.
My biggest worry is the plummeting health of the healthcare workers themselves. Their mental health, their mass exodus. You can't just replace them. It takes years to encourage people to go into and then graduate from medical fields.
I'm also worries about Cancer, i have lots of friends/family who've dealt w/ Cancer scares and most of them can't get even the littlest bit of pre-emptive care. My wife's mom died of Cancer last year and maybe she wouldn't have --had they not been throttling assesments and other doctor appointments.
I have toddlers in preschool, but at this point I just accept we're all going to get it... so not worth worrying about.. As virulent as this version is, I just can't fathom a 4 year old not catching it somehow...I just hope they have mild cases and no lingering after-effects, I think I might have it now, as I've been super lethargic past 3 days and just exhausted... I'm triple vaxxed and still if this is it, it's not pleasant.
TLDR: Delirious rambling re: I agree mutations are bad, dwindling healthcare worker health and resources is more bad, but also feel helpless, and kinda have given up, and just hope we can hurry up and get through all the unvaccinated people asap so we can fight this better. I'm a humanist, and usually compassionate, and care about human rights but I'm a bit jaded by the selfishness lately, and honestly the people who wouldn't wear a mask to protect others last year, I could care less if they end up winning a Herman Cain/Darwin Award this year. They provide so little value to society, they wouldn't have even been missed during the Thanos 'blip'. "Oh were you blipped? Huh...didn't evne notice...weird....awkward!".
Omicron is spreading rapidly for a wide variety of reasons, but not least among them is the fact that it significantly escapes any prior immunity gained via vaccination or infection with a prior strain of the virus.
It’s not at all clear to me why we’d assume that this will mark “the end” - if anything this seems like a good indication that we’ll see future strains with this measles-like contagiousness that significantly escapes any prior immunity gained from Omicron. And this is on top of the fact that immunity to coronaviruses in general does not seem to be particularly long-lasting.
At which point, unless we have significantly invested in hiring a lot more nurses and creating a lot more hospital beds (which I see no signs of), we will be looking at bringing back at least some restrictions in many jurisdictions to avoid having to cancel many medical procedures that have spent the last 2 years getting canceled repeatedly.
a lot of us don't believe in eugenics and condemning our friends and families to die.
Rinse and repeat.
That said, they are correct. Assuming that at some point lockdowns just stop, everyone will be either recovered or dead.
Vaccinated people will be almost completely recovered, with unvaccinated numbering the most death.
This is not sarcasm, it's not selfish, it's a simple fact. Vaccinations are available to the general public and there are very few that are not capable of receiving the vaccine, many that choose not to.
Those that choose not to will have a higher risk of death, due to a decision they made.
This makes it sound like you think the consequences of their actions are limited to them; if that were true, then I think the debate would be a lot less interesting.
I for one don't believe that the decision only affects the individual in this case.