Ask HN: How do you time innovative ideas?

7 points·khaledtaha··3 comments

As in, when is an idea too early? Or when is it too late? To what effect does the general zeitgeist play and how should consider being a trend maker/setter?

Of course, this is the age old question but I'm looking for advice (anecdotal, in literature, etc.) or discussion to tackles this subject as I'm sure we've all thought about it from time to time.

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The only real way to gauge an "idea" is by implementing it and trying to market it

Ideas are valueless

Implementations may (or may not) have value

The Apple Newton was a decade too early

The iPhone was perfectly timed

The CueCat was 15 years too early

QR codes right on time

Try it and see what happens :)

In simplistic terms you look for and keep and eye on macro trends. Extropaliting those trends out let’s you pitch and position ideas to ride those trends.

Musk saw long range price drops around battery production costs before he then get involved in Tesla. The underlying story and macro dynamics then help build confidence in the idea and also help the idea ‘ride the way’ if it were.

Ask yourself what macro trends apply here? The more certain the effect the more bankable it is to jump onto.

Of course a million other factors determine your eventual success.

By looking at gaps and listening to people. If you hear their complaints and see what are they looking for, what are they missing and what features they would like to see in already existing products, then you will be able to add your two cents and build something people are looking for and at the time they need it.

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