Guy English is dead on -- Steve Jobs has really redefined the industry by zigging when everyone else was zagging. My fear is that innovation will slow in the industry and be replaced by patent lawsuits (which seems to already be happening). Silicon Valley has been an amazing place to watch since the 80s, but don't think for a minute that it can't turn into Detroit of the 70s.
While we may have fewer OSs there are spaces yet to be discovered and exposed to the world - what's going to happen when someone comes out with a smartphone (and accompanying net service) cheap enough for the entire world to use, like cell (dumb) phones are now globally ubiquitous? I look forward to that day. And when Windows 8 bring the WebOS concept mainstream, who knows where this could go on the consumer level. I hope we've only just started the communications/portable experiments.