Are there any real empirical estimates for retention rate? No offense, but the 10% itself seems high.
"How Businesses Fare With Daily Deals: A Multi-Site Analysis of Groupon, LivingSocial, OpenTable, Travelzoo, and BuyWithMe Promotions"
Source: http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~dholakia/
However, I would apply a haircut since this is based on merchant perceptions, which may be overly positive (people are likely to think more highly of something they've spent money on).