Rail Theft Soars in California
latimes.com
latimes.com
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29930970
Twitter thread with video of package litter and opened containers on rail cars.
LA Times does add significant detail and context to the story, and mentions John Schreiber's Twitter posts.
The photos are disturbing and a crime by definition is an attack on our social structure and shouldn’t be ignored.
But to put it in context, the rail company is reporting $5M in losses from theft last year, on $5.56B in revenue, or 0.1% of revenue. Not ideal but not massive either.
However, we don’t have pictures of white collar crime, just stats: https://techjury.net/blog/white-collar-crime-statistics/
In 2021:
> $56 billion were lost to white-collar crimes.
> Only 3% of federal prosecutions annually are for white-collar crimes.
> California lost $400.9 million to fraud.
> Cybercrime damage cost is said to reach $6 trillion annually in 2021.
Add to that the government corruption or wasteful spending of your choice.
Imagine if these white collar criminals broke a window or littered packages during their crimes.
While it’s easy to have a visceral reaction to photos of crimes, let’s not forget the unseen crimes that also affect us.
And for those that are worried these crimes are going unpunished, 100 people have been arrested to date per the article.
[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3916088
[2] https://www.epi.org/publication/employers-steal-billions-fro...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/investigative/2014/09/06/s...
(I'm trying to recall / find a story which showed both the increase in seizures and a comparison with larceny / theft / burglary / robbery, which I recall being dwarfe by CAF.)
No, that's what they said. The exact quote was "the increase in crime cost the company at least $5 million last year" (emphasis mine)
>> Cybercrime damage cost is said to reach $6 trillion annually in 2021.
But US GDP is only 20.94 trillion. You're saying that the US is losing more than a quarter of its GDP to "Cybercrime damage"? I feel like the numbers you presented might be a bit inflated.
Words explain.
Both are useful for those purposes.
Note that the railroad may have insurance on losses. If that $5m is post-insurance payouts, then it would understate property losses. There's also the losses due to missed deliveries, disrupted schedules, etc. (UP notes this itself in the letter shared here: https://nitter.kavin.rocks/CBSLAKristine/status/148211585221...)
Your points on white collar crime are well made. That's activity that performs poorly on camera.
They still have every cent, they know the intermediary vendor who is laundering the money, and they'll still tell you to pound sand. All they've done is move the money from their right hand to their left and take their hefty cut in fees yet they pretend that clearly the scammers wanted those 500 limited edition seeds in some shitty Farmville ripoff and play dumb about the App developer who's very clearly in on the scam. They lose 30% to Apple and trying to convince victims that they can only accept payment in iTunes gift cards has to absolutely tank their conversion rate yet they still favor iTunes and Google Play because at the end of the day even after the huge fees they're still more likely to get more money than trying to transfer money through more traditional means.
DOJ still lets them get away with it. If they started charging entities facilitating fraud triple the fees they gained from it I'd bet Apple would start caring about it real quick.
Almost all these scams involve various forms of money laundering to/from US institutions and through US persons. Plenty of routes for enforcement here.
Many / most including fraud carried out within the US against US persons using US infrastructure (including phones etc). Plenty of opportunities to go after the "bulletproof" hosts and those who accept terminations from them (SIP -> T-Mobile etc).
Plenty of opportunities to put MUCH MUCH more pressure on countries like India which tolerate this scamming of US persons.
Beyond that, new rules, for example, if you want to terminate overseas SIP calls into the US, you have to post a bond relative to your call volume. Folks can file claims against that bond. If the bond was not posted (or not checked), then the upstream provider is on the hook. Upstream providers can deny service to entrants who will not post bond and who originate call volumes internationally.
"Union Pacific said last month in a letter to the Los Angeles District Attorney that it saw a 160% year-over-year increase in theft in LA county. The company claims that a December 2020 special directive issued by District Attorney George Gascón that changed how low-level offenses are prosecuted has contributed to the uptick.
Union Pacific said in its letter that in the last three months of the year it made over 100 arrests of "active criminals vandalizing our trains" in partnership with the LA police department and Los Angeles Sherriff department. But Union Pacific, which has its own police department with jurisdiction over the 32,000 miles of tracks it owns, said that even as it has expanded its security resources and partnered more closely with local law enforcement, the problem isn't going away. After being arrested individuals are released from custody within 24 hours, it said."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/economy/la-freight-railroad-t...
"UP considering rerouting it’s trains out of LA county. UP asks DA to be harder on theives. Says they’re back out on the tracks a day after released"
https://twitter.com/CBSLAKristine/status/1482115852216385538
You're a retail worker making 26k a year. You're arrested, and can't come up with $1,000 to get a bond, so you stay in jail for a couple of weeks, lose your job and get evicted. Now the prosecutor comes to you with a choice: take a plea deal and get out now with time served or go to court - the court date is of course in a month and you'll have to stay in jail over that period.
Innocent until proven guilty matters.
That may be illegal due to various anti-discrimination laws:
> But Free and other riders were baffled over proposed legislation that would lower mandatory penalties for taxi drivers who refuse to pick up certain passengers, or turn down requests to take passengers to a specific destination.
https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-metro-cabbies-fines-...
Immediately the other person ran to the opposite corner and asked the person with the dog to wait outside the restaurant because they had been a victim of a pitbull attack. And, of course, the person with the dog pulled the service dog card.
At this point, the business owner can do nothing. Once someone says a dog is a service dog, no one can ask them to leave until after the dog causes damage, per the ADA.
The person in the restaurant with the dog immediately claimed they forgot the vest that says their dog is a service animal. This tells me the dog was definitely not a service animal, because anyone who actually needs one knows that no proof is required.
Anyway, my point is the laws in the US right now let any dog owner walk around with impunity and impose dogs on people who do not want to be around dogs. Which means I have to modify my behavior with my toddlers and leave places where any random person can bring a Rottweiler or pitbull.
Edit: In the dog situation, you can even go further and see that NY state just forced owners of less dangerous and aggressive breeds to subsidize owners of more dangerous and aggressive breeds. Why would the government need to get involved in subsidizing risks of various dog breeds?
https://www.syracuse.com/state/2022/01/new-ny-state-law-bans...
Some animals really aren't suitable as pets for the vast majority of owners - which might be a more fruitful discussion than objecting to service animals too quickly.
There are already laws that ban dogs from restaurants and grocery stores. But there is a higher law that says if you say the words service dog, then no one can say anything to you and you do not have to prove anything, rendering the laws banning dogs from restaurants and grocery stores useless.
Doesn't stop certain obnoxious owners from taking their animals where they really ought not, etc.
The problem isn't service dogs, but fraudulent service dogs claims. And often health departments hold business owners liable for these fake claims (fine the owners because they should have known that the pit bull wasn't a service dog because they lacked a harness), which is doubly ridiculous if you aren't allowed to challenge someone's service dog claim (which actually isn't true, I think, there isn't a law on the book that businesses cannot verify service dogs, its just culture that pushes them to trust).
> Q7. What questions can a covered entity's employees ask to determine if a dog is a service animal?
>A. In situations where it is not obvious that the dog is a service animal, staff may ask only two specific questions: (1) is the dog a service animal required because of a disability? and (2) what work or task has the dog been trained to perform? Staff are not allowed to request any documentation for the dog, require that the dog demonstrate its task, or inquire about the nature of the person's disability.
> Q8. Do service animals have to wear a vest or patch or special harness identifying them as service animals?
>A. No. The ADA does not require service animals to wear a vest, ID tag, or specific harness.
On the other hand, if your neighbor makes $500, while you make $450 regardless of when you wake up, you'll be extremely irritated by the unfairness. And would not notice that your employer makes $750 off each of you, while you are busy quarreling about who's more privileged.
Most of the jobs in the cities are just that - standard work routine, standard pay, little room for decisions, little growth, little personal responsibility, little chance becoming financially independent. Brought to you by low interest rates fueling endless acquisitions and consolidation of bargaining power in fewer and fewer hands.
2008 was the end of the previous economic cycle where the big players got too greedy and too dumb, made stupid decisions with big money, and were destined to crash and burn, allowing the new wave of smaller companies to take their place. But the government decided that too much was at stake, and just bailed them out.
Around 2012 people started noticing that something is wrong, which took the rather silly form of Occupy Wall Street. The corporate response to it was shifting of the focus to social justice and equity - term that was supposed to take into account historical inequalities, but is so loose and unquantifiable, that every person would see it slightly differently, creating endless opportunity for division.
So now we have an entire generation that does not aspire wealth through personal responsibility and hard work, but rather blames someone else on having an unfair advantage and is dreaming of taking it away. That's how 3rd-world countries and dictatorships function. People are busy fighting over the leftovers from the feast left by the ruling class, and feel accomplished when they manage to steal the extra bag of potatoes their neighbor was hiding under the stairs.
Anecdotally, in the past few months I've had five or six packages just never show up from Amazon whereas in all the years prior that happened so rarely I don't recall any such thing.
John Schreiber's original Twitter thread shows plenty of cross-track, close-in, and overhead shots from both bridges and drones all lacking telephoto compression and revealing abundant strewn packaging:
This is what growth optimized capitalism looks like.
The roads are so bad I had to replace my bent wheels from the potholes. The government can't be bothered to stop, investigate, or prosecute rampant crime. My tap water isn't even safe to drink. And I get absolutely robbed at tax time anyway.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/economy/la-freight-railroad-t...
Arrested individuals are being released the same day by the LA DA and court.
> Union Pacific reported what it claimed was a 160% increase since December 2020 in thefts along the railroad tracks in L.A. County
Both e-commerce and LA’s status as a hub are established. So why the increase now? I didn’t see a mention of economic realities driving crime, aside from the increased presence of homeless camps, such as skyrocketing costs of everything.
Means: your new home in California being a tent or car by the railway tracks
Motive: money.
Opportunity: unguarded rails and bottlenecked supply chain
America’s problems, especially the tragic amount of homelessness in CA, are becoming a lot harder to hide.
"In a letter to Dist. Atty. George Gascón, Union Pacific’s Guerrero estimated that more than 100 people have been arrested but they “boast to our officers that charges will be pled down.” "
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-01-16/rail-the...
LA alone dedicated close to $1B to fight homelessness in 2021! [1]
[1] https://www.npr.org/2021/04/20/989015659/la-dedicates-1-bill...
at $25'000 per capita we should be seeing some improvements, but it's hard to know how much of that has disappeared to 'administration fees'. Also the article talks about how the main push for this was creation of affordable housing, that has a long lead time and with material shortages I would be surprised to find any new units built last year.
Louis Rossman has a lot of videos on this in New York, essentially 50,000$ a year for tiny little slumlord hovels run by people with connections. More money isn't what's needed, it's for people who actually care to be spending it instead of politicians.
If LA for example is needing to build new low income housing for even a small part of that 63k number, well with spiking construction and land costs, that's going to be well more than $1B
If one disbursed all of it it would probably not really be enough for housing, let alone the other costs of living, and there'd be $0 for any sort of supportive programs whatsoever.
It's clearly not enough money.
“According to LAPD data through Nov. 27, property crime was up 2.6% over the same period last year but is down 6.6% from 2019.”
When you know the data is bullshit and lies you say so.
Though I'm not sure how that calculation would work when we're talking about intermodal container theft, since modern intermodal "well cars" can consist of one, three, or even five permanently-coupled platforms holding two stacked containers each: https://www.gatx.com/wps/wcm/connect/GATX/GATX_SITE/Home/Rai...
This is a trustworthy source of information?
[0] https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/investigations/are-buc...
The numbers are political fiction.
Half-way through the article we get the point. This is just another example of how our retail supply lines are optimized at every turn to shovel maximum crap through the pipe... be it minimally-staffed stores or unsecured trains. It's all about cash flow, baby!
Let the market fix the problem.
Now, in which first world country do freight train need guards across their route? And it's not like the train is being hit in the middle of the desert, Breaking Bad style. There are few spots where this happened.
It seems to me like police across the US are either scared of doing their job or simply don't care, together with a public which has been desensitized to crime.
"Efficient" in terms of what outputs, relative to what inputs?
If the market reacts by making it harder to steal, then presumably this will increase the cost of goods which will, presumably, increase the value of stealing them. The market doesn't have a lot of options that I can see.
These increases needn't be the same. It could be that by increasing the security budget 10%, theft decreased by 90%, and prize increased by 1%, which wouldn't be high enough to create a "theft demand". It could also be that the same security budget increase did nothing on the theft rate. My point is this is not necessarily how the market works.
This is similar to the argument that taxes increase the cost of products, which increases the cost of running the government (since the government consumes free market products), which will require more taxes. This needn't be the case.
In any case, there are and have been societies with more inequality and poverty than USA where there was less crime. Obviously nobody wants those solutions in USA but the market would find its was absent regulation in this case.
This is not an issue for which society/government should pay the cost to fix it (which you seem to imply by saying the markets have no options).
I don't see why shoplifters are thrown in jail and wage thieves are not. Why do cops gun down shoplifters but won't lift a finger for wage thieves? Why don't cops bust down the doors of polluters? It's the selective enforcement of property rights I have a problem with. The enforcers already side with capital 9 times out of 10.
The original articles and discussion here on HN is surprisingly one-sided.
Obviously I don’t like railroad theft but let’s not send in the army to protect a supply chain which has perhaps been made too efficient.
Why must the government step in when these skeleton-crewed retail stores and supply chains have inevitable, predictable loss issues? The article itself makes this point.
https://twitter.com/johnschreiber/status/1481770722271760384
* the rich buy security guards and security mechanisms.
* the middle class try their best to do the same on a budget.
* the poor have no protection.
Then a politician comes along and says, "Let's socialize the cost of security so that everyone is protected, not just the 1%"
And then you get police again.
This isn't indicative of society's collapse, nor of the anti-work masses rising up, nor even of a catastrophic government failure. It does point out once again that California has an untenable disparity of wealth and we need to continue to work on fixing that problem.
The future looks bleak and this will spill over and affect everyone. Or maybe I just have a pessimistic and wild imagination.
There are two ports where consumer products enter the United States from the ocean/Asia: LA, and to a much lesser degree Seattle. That’s it.
Both essentially lead directly to Chicago from the west coast, with very little inbetween.
Eg Texas freight lines are for transporting things like animal feed and crushed gravel to export terminals with little in the way of hubs. Florida isn’t significant and its port capacity is minuscule, repeat for most of the country.
Massive (unguarded) consumer products hub x population, Chicago is the only other qualifier, where rail theft is unsurprisingly also a constant issue.
I guess the good is the nice weather and beaches... what am i missing in terms of good?
The tweets prompt reporters to start calling the usual suspects: The company experiencing losses gives one misleading comparison to locked-down 2020 and an absolute figure for losses rather than a relative comparison over time. That makes sense, because they want government and cops to step in so they don't have to cover it. Next up the reporters call LAPD, who have a political motive to imply that the problem is worse than ever, to justify increased jurisdiction and funding.
And that's… pretty much where it ends. Nobody bothers to look back to 2019 or before; nobody bothers to see whether a higher percentage of rail cars are looted, or whether there are now more rail cars and online shopping in total; nobody bothers to analyze whether the increased wait times or any other factor are in play. I would love to actually understand this issue, but the article is designed to shock me with photos of debris and make me feel as if anarchy has descended upon the streets of Los Angeles, a fear-based reaction that apparently many HN commenters are susceptible to. It's dismaying and ultimately unsatisfying to read when the only goal is to drive clicks and engagement.
I'm going to go on a limb and say that the tracks being absolutely covered in discarded envelopes isn't normal.
What gave you the impression otherwise? Three paragraphs in, there's a person being interviewed who claims "he comes to the tracks regularly". That definitely suggest they know they're not the first people seeing it.
>If you’ve gone anywhere near railroad tracks in industrial parts of Los Angeles in the past decade, you’ve seen things that are hard to believe are happening, but have indeed been commonplace for years.
Like what?
>I’m not asserting this mess is commonplace or isn’t, but it would be great if the reporter bothered to investigate whether it was, so that readers have context.
The article mentions: "Union Pacific reported what it claimed was a 160% increase since December 2020 in thefts along the railroad tracks in L.A. County.". An increase of 160% suggests that it was not "commonplace for years".
It’s remarkable to me that he didn’t have any awareness of this issue. But then again, who has jurisdiction over the railways?
Still, it has to be a multi-agency effort, given that UP’s jurisdiction is only like 50 ft wide.
But from the above quotes from the sheriff, doesn’t it also seem like that dept is asleep at the wheel?
Perhaps we read into this what we already want to read into this. I do agree that our current criminal reform looks to have swung too far in one direction. But I also think the sheriff is a dick, and the dept is practically a gang enterprise.
Wasn't this a twitter thread like a week ago?
This is what happens when the richest country in the world has some of the poorest populations in the world. Poor people are neither violent nor thieves. But they can be convinced to become that when inequality is so high.
And if you think “a job” is all it takes to not be poor, then you are just completely out of touch with reality.
This looting is not done by "the poor" and they are not stealing "to fill their hungry children's mouths". They are looting because it is free season, they'll either use or sell off whatever loot they get and spend the returns on whatever they fancy.
What makes you think that poor people does not have jobs? Search the term "the working poor".
Better yet, check out "working homeless" (take [1] for example). That things like this happen in the richest, most powerful country in history is beyond belief.
[1] https://www.npr.org/2018/09/30/652572292/working-while-homel...
Does that mean 'consistently lowering over the last 10-20 years and now significantly lower than it was 20 years ago?' Because that's a pretty odd definition.
Odder still - while CA homicide rates have increased in 2020-2021, they have done so by a percentage LOWER than the national average. So basically, CA is safer and has lower homicide rates than the national average and your suggestion is to change leadership to be more like the rest of the country?
"Fun" facts: California was the epicenter of the 20th-century American eugenics movement[0] whose ideas became very famous around 1940, was the place that invented single-family zoning[1] (in Berkeley in 1916) immediately after banning land ownership by non-whites in 1913[2], that once passed a state referendum to explicitly nullify a state-level fair-housing act[3] passed a year prior, that passed the first modern firearms-restriction act on explicitly racial grounds[4], and that pioneered regressive segregation-with-extra-steps property tax laws[5]. It is an extremely racially-segregated place, to this day[6], and always has been despite our leaders' constant pandering to the contrary. There are so many things to love about California, but this isn't one of them and I'd urge you to reconsider what you know about it :/
[0] https://www.alternet.org/2020/12/josef-mengele/
[1] https://globalurban.org/Berkeley_Zoning_Origins.pdf
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Alien_Land_Law_of_1...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_California_Proposition_14
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mulford_Act
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13
US is one of the richest countries, has less poor people than other rich countries, the "poor" in the US are richer than the "poor" in e.g. UK or Italy, and "average" (mean and median) incomes in UK or Italy would be considered "poor" in the US.
see: https://twitter.com/CPopeHC/status/1469070902813995014
So, inequality is irrelevant, only absolute poverty is relevant.
EDIT: NOTE: the graph in the link above is disposable income (a.k.a. above cost of living)
Personally, I don't think that poverty is the issue here. People aren't looting Apple stores because they're poor. But the lack of social safety net (income, health, mental health) for the poorest probably doesn't help.
No it isn't. Cost of living matters.
Impoverished people in richer countries have, to a limited extent, some advantage from increased capital investment in their vicinity (e.g. in theory, on average, better local infrastructure than in absolutely poorer countries). They are still crushed by living expenses.
https://www.gapminder.org/dollar-street/
The numbers on the US states I've seen puts them in the lower brackets of the EU countries if you count precentage of the population that are poor, not bad by any means but not good. These numbers are meaningless though, especially on the subject discussed here.
A person doesn’t steal 10 iPhones to use them personally.
If you steal 10 iPhones you might end up with thousands of dollars and that keeps the lights on and feeds you for awhile. If you steal a loaf of bread and a pack of lunch meat you eat for a week.
Certain structural factors matter a lot:
How affordable is it to get decent healthcare?
How affordable is it to get decent food?
Is drug use criminalized?
Is there a high rate of violent crime?
Do people own their own homes?
Are there informal social relations that act as social safety nets?
A relatively poor country that nevertheless answers those questions correctly will likely provide a better life even to its poor.
I find this statement to be misleading. If one person in the entire country lived in extreme poverty than there would be some population that is among “some of the poorest populations in the world.”
However, while the US does have issues which should not be ignored, the US cannot be compared to countries where much of the population lives in extreme poverty and other human rights issues. This comparison hurts the real cause that other countries desperately need help and that entire populations do truly live in extreme poverty.
The United Nations Development Programme puts out the Human Development report which has a great website and iPhone / Android app to access the data. A good indicator is the percentage of the population living below the income poverty line. Explore this site, it’s great. Here is a link to one stat.
http://hdr.undp.org/en/indicators/167106
App: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/human-development-report-app/i...
Poverty and violence causes mental and physical health problems. Fix poverty if you want educated and intelligent citizens.
Why would a wealthy person want to participate? They can just buy the stuff and not be involved in a crime.
They aren't stealing out of necessity - they are stealing because they can.
Inequality is a big part of it. I know that in the US property rights are considered holy. But many people never even got the chance to go to a good school because they were born by the wrong parents, are working their asses off just to keep their noses above the water, and at the same time are being surrounded by wealthy people that work less than them whose only advantage seems to be that they were lucky enough to be born by the right parents. Some of the unlucky people might think that there are fundamental unfairnesses and that trying to balance those should trump property rights.
Society subject to stabilizing optimizations formulated by intelligent free agents acting in a way counter to the desires of system architects who decided to scale beyond what they could actually guarantee the security of.
Who'd'a thunk?
Also, I guarantee you that if property crime enforcement increased and there were more arrests, they would scram.
Apply a map of retailer container shipping traffic per postal code (where LA would, again, figure in the top 5, due to the ports and their surrounding infrastructure such as warehouses and garment manufacturing).
What other areas of high homeless density also have as high a density of goods throughout as this particular cluster route in LA?
Is the security and prosecution of crimes in those areas as lax as it is in the LA train yard?
If so, then perhaps the only thing preventing thefts there is that no one’s done the math yet and found it. Or that they’re keeping it to themselves and not earning national attention, because no reporter has done a drone flyover of the carnage yet, or because they’re keeping it to such a low volume that no one has noticed.
I would expect this is the work of a small group of people who are spreading word about the security gap left by too few security guards on the ground, and that Southern Pacific has been trying to maximize profits by not hiring more security guards for their LA interchange and having all the insurance companies involved pay for the lost items. I suspect the nationwide news showing these photos is going to antagonize those insurance companies into spiking the rates of all involved shippers, but it’s unclear to me whether Southern Pacific is vulnerable to — or insulated from — insurance company outrage in this regard.
So maybe it’s a bit soon to pass moral judgment upon homeless people, and instead wonder “what group of opportunists are exploiting a logistics weakness and inviting desperate homeless people to join the free money party?”. Hard to imagine desperate people turning down free money at essentially zero risk, but they weren’t doing this on their own before. Find the ringleaders and deal with them instead.
Nor being rich.
What needs to happen in these cities is some auditing of the second hand sellers. Pawn shops are required by law to record all items that they purchase but many of the people advertising and selling online are moving larger volumes of product with zero accountability.
The Kijiji and Craigslist type sites have mostly been allowed to operate in a gray area but there is no doubt they are facilitating the buying and selling of stolen items and as such a percentage of their profit is actually subject to seizure through proceeds of crime legislation.
There are waiting periods to buy guns it would be just as easy to require an item for sale to be advertised for a minimum amount of time before the contact details are provided.
No, there aren’t - not outside CA and a few other places.
If you’re stealing things off a train, you’re already in a pretty bad place in life, it’s not like the earlier people were any better off than the later people
Just the amount of discarded items indicates an organized effort on behalf of the thieves and most likely a steal to order game plan.
I have no doubt that the entire scheme was cooked up by some meth head while the rest of us were sleeping. Those guys are always looking for an angle to make a quick buck and yes they are desperate too but that shouldn't be the stick we measure criminality and the punishment required by.
I'll be a bit more specific - there are about 400,000 people currently incarcerated in the US for property crimes. That's higher than the per capita rate of incarceration for any crime in Canada. If the US is lax in prosecuting property crimes, then I don't think any other developed country is hard on crime.
What is overwhelmingly driving US's incarceration rate is War on Drugs. US has some insane policies - depending on the state, but it's a large contributor to the overall figure - regarding drug-related crimes. Legalization of some drugs, like in California, helps a bit - but given an insane amount of regulation and taxation the legal business is beset by, the illegal route is still very attractive and profitable.
The other side is the proliferation of "woke" prosecutors and local managers, refusing to prosecute crimes like petty theft (in SF, theft below $900 is in essence legal), property destruction, simple assault, etc. That is compounded by extremely permissive policies towards public homelessness and establishing homeless camps on any public property, often even burdening the adjacent private property with tolerating and supporting them. All this creates a very fertile ground for certain type of crime - there's a bunch of people that aren't very connected to social norms at the best of times, but also they know they'd never suffer any consequences for robbing a store or breaking into a car, or punching someone on the street. And there's organized crime, which knows these people can be exploited as foot soldiers in a criminal enterprise of stealing high-value items and reselling them in ad-hoc markets, or online - which is never being prosecuted, because people who are supposed to stop this are ideologically bound to address "societal roots of the crime" - which never happens - instead of going for the criminals.
So yes, you can have both high incarceration rates and extremely lax prosecution for certain crimes - at the same time. Worst of the both worlds.
Yeah, that's only a part of it. While a significant problem, drug related crimes make up only 20% of the total incarcerated number. (That 1/5 is still on its own more than the incarcerated per capita rates for all crimes in comparable countries like Canada and the UK, so it's definitely a big deal.)
The numbers for non-violent drug crimes are higher as an overall percentage in the Federal system than they are at the State level.
Again, 400,000 is just property crimes. About 1 in 3 people currently held in jail for property crimes are there for larceny/theft or stolen property.
I don't agree about the 'fertile ground' for crime you're talking about in part because I have never seen any evidence for it. It's in movies, but I haven't really seen it in real life, and I've been looking at the data for a little while now. I am completely willing to be schooled on that if you've got some evidence though.
But I don't need UP to give me evidence - I see it each time I leave home and see ever-growing homeless camps next to my house, and read about robberies in the stores I visited only recently. Over 16 years I've lived in California, I never seen this type of brazenly open criminality around. I wish it were movies, but it's the reality.
…
> Weinberg and his collaborators Eric D. Gould of Hebrew University and David Mustard of the University of Georgia examined young males with no more than a high school education—the demographic group that commits the most crime—they found that average wages and unemployment rates were directly linked to the incidence of property crimes. [2]
…
> Crime has increased during every recession since the late 1950s, sociologists said. [3]
[1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/03/do-recessions-increas...
[2] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-recessions-inc...
[3] https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/...
Wait, if the gap in wealth inequality has been doing nothing but expanding... why does the crime rate do nothing but fall? With very few, and very brief, exceptions - this is the case.
This is in direct contrast to the efficient cause of the riots during January 6th, which was political and not opportunistic in nature. Attempting to discharge the responsibility of those involved in the latter by appealing to the former is distasteful, to say the least.
[1]: https://citylimits.org/2020/06/09/how-widespread-was-violenc...
The riots in Minneapolis were worse by every metric than Jan 6. And in some cases orders of magnitude (cost of damage, for one). And I'll tell you what else - a lot more people are going to jail for the Jan 6 riots than the Minneapolis ones.
As for whether things were "worse": I consider the political and cultural damage of storming our nation's Capitol worse than just about anything you can put a bill of damage on. You can't put that kind of cultural trespass back in the box the way you can with "ordinary" protests and riots.
No, you witnessed a tiny portion of the protests.
I personally know of business owners whose businesses were looted, literally just local store owners.
Read the comment carefully: the distinction is between protesters and opportunists, with the latter not being protestors. There is no evidence that protestors individually or collectively engaged in looting.
Can you explain how they did this?
People who might know of / ultimately be charged with incitement have been subpoenaed, but again, I don’t know of any charges. Anyone pressing such charges will have to show a clear line between first amendment speech and not, so they are going to be careful not to waste their time.
If that isn’t meant to imply there wasn’t any looting, then why did you add it?
The rest of what you said is just about definitions and is irrelevant to the facts of what happened.
“There is no evidence that protesters engaged in looting”
That’s because you use a different name for the people who did. You have no way to be certain nobody who looted wasn’t also there to protest, so the labelling doesn’t mean anything.
In aggregate the protests unquestionably led to looting that wouldn’t otherwise have happened. The fact that not all protesters were looters is irrelevant. The looting was part of the protesting, even if not all protesters supported it.
Because there's a falsehood in the original post: that protestors were somehow responsible for the riotous behavior. The original post then goes on to use that falsehood to justify a different instance of riotous behavior, except that the specifics are inverted: the protestors and rioters during J6 were in the same crowd.
The labeling means a lot in terms of the legitimacy and legacy of the single largest American civil rights protests in the last 50 years. I'm proud of the ways that hundreds of thousands of New Yorks peacefully and righteously comported themselves during the protests, and I do not want their legacy unduly influenced by opportunists. We should judge them not by others' actions.
I don’t think it’s that simple. The riots only happened because of the protests. The protests interfered with the police response, and the protesters didn’t stop the looting themselves.
That doesn’t make the protesters into looters, but it does mean that the looting was a side effect of the protests and the protesters bear some responsibility for that.
The protesters actions had consequences, one of which was to enable looting and the destruction of people’s livelihoods.
I’m fine if you want to say that the cost was worth it to make this political statement, but I think it’s ludicrous to pretend that the looting would have happened without the protesters.
This is a chilling and dangerous responsibility to burden protestors with: are we to argue that every single person who protested peacefully outside of the Capitol on J6 is responsible for the rioters and insurrectionists who stormed in? They did, after all, interfere with the police response and provide moral support for the single greatest outrage against our government in nearly two centuries.
Our cultural and legal standards of free speech enshrine protest, and ensure that protestors are not vilified for actions that are not theirs. I do not think we should undermine that.
No it’s not. It’s simply a reality. The way the chose to protest facilitated the looting. When the looting started they could have ended the protest and summoned the police.
You seem to be conflating legal liability with responsibility. I’m not saying they should be prosecuted.
I’m saying that it’s just a mental fantasy to pretend they don’t bear responsibility for the consequences of their actions.
> are we to argue that every single person who protested peacefully outside of the Capitol on J6 is responsible for the rioters and insurrectionists who stormed in?
Sure - once it became a riot, if people stuck around and got in the way of the police, they certainly bear responsibility.
> They did, after all, interfere with the police response and
Yes, and they are responsible for thst.
> provide moral support for the single greatest outrage against our government in nearly two centuries.
Moral support is a different matter.
> Our cultural and legal standards of free speech enshrine protest, and ensure that protestors are not vilified for actions that are not theirs.
Preventing police from doing the job of protecting business from being looted is their action.
> I do not think we should undermine that.
Blocking police from doing their jobs is not speech.
Nobody is talking about limiting free speech or protests. That’s a red-herring.
Didn't the government already decide the answer to this is "yes", though, by filing criminal charges against people just for being there?
There was no such distinction during J6: the opportunists who did storm the Capitol and menace our legislative branch started as protestors, and promoted themselves to riotous behavior when the opportunity presented itself.
Your claim that an attempted coup was somehow spurned by protests relating to the extrajudicial killing of black men is a rather bold one to make with absolutely no supplied evidence. I suppose finding cause in the drastic uptick of far-right violence [2] you have conveniently omitted, which would serve as a much better basis for the "broken window theory", is too easy of a conclusion to make. As is finding cause in the president quite literally inciting his supporters to storm the Capitol on the basis of false claims of election fraud. No, it's those protesters!
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/16/this-summ...
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/20...
As to the "letting up on drug prosecutions", in the Reagan-esque war on drugs, the Drugs won that war a long time ago. Maybe it's time to start treating serious drug addiction (meth, coke, heroin, etc) as a mental health crisis instead. Turns out that it actually costs a lot of money each year to keep a person incarcerated, and when they get turned loose back into society without addressing the underlying metal health and addiction issues, it just repeats in a loop.
Here you go: https://www.google.com/search?q=manhattan+2020+protest+retai...
There was effectively no police response for the first few days and each night looting got worse. Eventually the police mobilized and normalized the situation
I lived there at the time, it was very widespread and pretty much universal across mid-lower manhattan.
Anyway, I saved you the trouble:
"An estimated 450 businesses across New York City were vandalized and in some cases looted in late May and early June, according to the city's Department of Small Business Services."
Don't need the stats to back it up if you were there to see it though.
450/36000 == 1.3% of retail businesses were "vandalized and in some cases looted", phrasing which suggests rather less than that were actually looted.
The suggestion that "Huge percentage of stores were vandalized and had their goods stolen" seems absurdly hyperbolic given these numbers.
edit: corrected accidental use of state wide number
Do you know what the landmass of lower Manhattan relative to overall New York City is?
Do you understand what a non uniform distribution is? Clearly nobody responding is familiar with basic math.
I'll spell it out for you guys. Landmass of lower Manhattan = very small vs overall New York. Using total retail stores in New York is highly misleading for that reason alone.
I could also say 450 is only .000001% of stores in the USA, so there's no problem! Same logic you're using, by the way
The 450 "vandalized and in some cases looted" statistic you provided was for New York City as a whole. If you would like to confine your focus to Lower Manhattan, the onus is on you to find the relevant statistic for Lower Manhattan, because that 450 includes vandalism from all over the city (to repeat your own quote with appropriate emphasis, "An estimated 450 businesses across New York City were vandalized and in some cases looted in late May and early June, according to the city's Department of Small Business Services.")
To really get a true picture of things, we'd also need to know what the background level of vandalism for business in a more-than-a-month time window is - because I assure you, it is not zero.
> I could also say 450 is only .000001% of stores in the USA, so there's no problem! Same logic you're using, by the way
No, the logic I'm using is that if .000001% of stores in the USA were "vandalized and in some cases looted", then the statement "Huge percentage of stores were vandalized and had their goods stolen" made about the USA would be laughably hyperbolic and incorrect simply on the cold facts.
Like your 450 number is from all 5 boroughs, did you not realize that New York City refers to all 5 boroughs and not just like Midtown or something?
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I don't know why you're trying so hard to mislead people. Do you just live in Soho and want to act like Soho is lower Manhattan? Or more specifically, like the 4 blocks of Broadway in Soho that got hit hardest?
I already commented this but those protests did not do widespread damage to Manhattan, there were very centralized pockets of damage.
In fact, Manhattan probably had the most damage by dollars because of Soho luxury stores, but by actual damage to individual businesses the outer boroughs were infinitely worse off, and even that was highly centralized...
Most of the damage in all 5 boroughs was highly concentrated in specific blocks like what happened on 5th Ave
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Like I get it, for a small business owner sweeping out their store 1 was too many, but c'mon, don't be dishonest.
450 businesses across all 5 boroughs and including even basic graffiti in that count... that was the literal opposite of widespread looting.
If you're computing overall number of businesses in New York then you're just being disingenuous. So you're counting retail stores in Staten island too? Are you including non retail businesses?
How about watch literally any video of the protests in Manhattan to see for yourself?
To say there wasn't widespread looting in Manhattan is just wrong, and easily disproven by the evidence.
Here you go: https://m.youtube.com/results?sp=mAEA&search_query=Manhattan...
Don't believe your lying eyes, right? Funny all this pushback from people who most likely don't even live there.
[0] https://www.osc.state.ny.us/reports/osdc/retail-sector-new-y...
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/06/11/unemploymen...
- K shaped recovery driving near unprecedented acceleration of wealth inequality
https://www.businessinsider.com/k-shaped-recovery-definition
- Raging mental health crisis bearing down on an already overwhelmed medical system
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/16/well/mental-h...
- Raging drug crisis also raging on concurrently
https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/wk/ane/2017/00000125/...
- Clogged supply chain resulting in unprecedented amounts of vulnerable goods
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supply-chain-issues-cargo-theft...
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I could keep going, but all of this and you think... protests caused this?
You saying "Manhattan was ransacked" is hilarious, I live in Brooklyn, next stop after Barclay Center, where global news networks were painting a picture of a warzone using an overturned car...
Almost every person who marched at Barclay went past my apartment and you know what the damage was? The police removed the trash cans on my street in anticipation, so for a good two weeks afterwards there was trash everywhere as people just dumped it in the street instead.
Oh yeah, and some businesses took way too long removing their plywood defenses despite 0 signs they were actually tested.
Actually one cool story literally steps from that burning car was those same protestors stopping would-be rioters from breaking into stores...
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Seriously, we need to drop this narrative that the iron fist of the law is what would stop this.
So many people trying to run interference by pointing the finger at "defund the police" chants... is the only thing stopping you from stealing from a train the idea the police might catch you?
Criminals are criminals, they don't respect the rule of law so you're not going to get them by sprinkling more agents of the law to crack down on people.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/001112871038226...
(Note the author here, Gary Kleck, this is someone who's practically a patron saint of tough-on-crime proponents after his work on DGU. And even his study can't seriously back the claim.)
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Now you can try jailing all the criminals of course, and just keep growing your jails until you've exhausted the sources of crime...
But even with the harshest prosecutors, eventually these people need to leave. If our prisons were about reform it'd be one thing, but crime is rampant is our prison system.
So all you're doing is sticking criminals in an incubator while screwing over the communities they're from and setting the next generation of criminals in motion...