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Comment by magicjosh | Hacker News Reader

The article suggests that using the phrase "it's early days" is incorrect in blockchain technology because Bitcoin and Ethereum have been around for 13 and 6 years respectively.

The author goes on to give examples like smartphones, Uber, and Tesla, all of which have had serious developments in terms of impact and usability in around the same time period. Then given that Bitcoin and Ethereum have not made similar progress in that time period suggests it is not "early days".

Users continue to get scammed and lose funds. So what is it instead? Middle days? End of life? Pre-early days?

Open to ideas here. The author seems to suggest that what we're seeing in blockchains is the best we're going to get out of it. If Bitcoin were middle aged, would users put up with all the warts knowing they won't go away?

(Disclosure I own Bitcoin and Ethereum)

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It will always be "early days". Crypto requires a constant influx of marks who genuinely believe that they are early, as a ponzi scheme only ever benefits early entrants. No crypto enthusiast is ever going to tell that you are late.

For a pyramid scheme that certainly holds up. Whoever joins last seems most incentivized to bring others in. Has anyone modeled pyramid scheme dynamics to Bitcoin perhaps at an academic level?

(Disclosure I own Bitcoin and Ethereum)

I don't understand how bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. There's no pyramid shape, which is kind of crucial. "Just look at the whales" uh huh, you mean like the dollar?

It's just a value store. Debating the efficacy of the value store is fine, labeling it a ponzi scheme seems reductive to absurdity.

The real problem (unsurprisingly) is with fiat currencies. These are heavily regulated, nearly made up values. That crash, often. We put handbrakes on the systems (see gamestop, mortgage debt crisis etc) because of how unsafe they can be.

If we trade goods for fiat currency, we put handbrakes and regulations there too.

The bitcoin/fiat exchange is merely proof why we need these regulations. Until it (the crypto/fiat intersection) is regulated, it's not gonna look and feel like what we're used to.

There are good criticisms to be made of bitcoin (like how centralized most mining operations are, the community's constant in-fighting and many more). It's drowned out by daft arguments like pollution (that's a whole other economic sectors fault) and ponzi schemes.

Maybe other coins could be construed that way (again, regulations required) but not bitcoin.

The fiat currency whataboutism as a defense of crypto is the most tired and ignorant pedantry I can think of.

I think most people don't get the dichotomy, and misconstrue things by attempting comparisons to a historic precedence. The truth is there is none. The breakthrough is fundamentally a trusted centralised store, which is decentralised in topology. No single person or organisation is in control, a self sufficient network, gamed into existence.

I am still surprised people continue to be still so enamoured by the financial aspects, which is the all important fuel to keep the engine going. Greed is a hell of a motivating factor though.

IMHO this is just the first generation, it will evolve in ways we cannot predict, but it is revolutionary and challenges banks and financial institutions to the core.

Have you found anyone talking or writing about this "trusted centralized store"? I could even see reading fictional use cases for the year 2030 or something. Bitcoin will be twice as old at that point. What happens to the petrodollar in 2030? Speculative is fine, even encouraged. Dystopian futures are in general easy to imagine ("and then everyone dies!!"). These stories I want require hard thinking and analysis instead.

Here's an example of what I want more of - a blockchain analysis by Institute for the Future from 2017: https://www.iftf.org/fileadmin/user_upload/downloads/blockch...

Appreciate your response here. I also find the "pyramid scheme" framing to fall short. But I'm no expert, I welcome a rigorous analysis by someone with a background in ponzi and pyramid schemes. (Disclosure own btc and etc)

Crypto does not require any such action. Likewise no dogmatic crypto skeptic like yourself will ever tell you you are early. Stay poor.

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