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Comment by welshwelsh | Hacker News Reader

I'm sure there are some pipefitters who make a lot of money, but we should go by averages, not outliers.

The average for "Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters" is $56,330 per year, according to the BLS. For "Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers" it's $110,140 per year. For "Physicians and Surgeons," it's $208,000 per year.

We also need to consider that running your own business is a lot of work, and doing physical labor can be hard on the body. One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay, stable hours, relatively low stress and get to work in an air-conditioned room. So I would still prefer that over skilled trades even if the pay was the same.

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> One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay, stable hours, relatively low stress and get to work in an air-conditioned room. So I would still prefer that over skilled trades even if the pay was the same.

One of the downsides is your job can be easily outsourced to a country with lower wages, and with remote work here to stay (IMO), that is going to be even easier than before.

There are no remote plumbers.

I firmly believe that if you show up on time, are pleasant, and are competent at your work, running your own business is a slam dunk and you can charge whatever you want (within reason). Because my experience is that it's nearly impossible anymore to get all of those things.

If we can get AR/VR into the mainstream I bet there will be remote plumbers that essentially pilot you to diagnose and fix things.

I guess all the tools in his pickup is not needed then?

They will be but that will be delivered to your home for rental.

At that point, you may as well just get a plumber delivered with the tools too.

Tools tend to be cheaper than trained humans.

In this scenario the trained human is being paid to operate a VR device. Instead of paying a human to send you tools and operate a VR device as you do the repair you might as well pay them to fix the thing.

I imagine that you can guide multiple people at the same time.

From another country, at scale.

Try pulling a broken cartridge out of a 20 year old shower faucet after the handle snaps off. I'll give you the pliers you need. You get one try and if you fail, you will now need the tools to remove tile or cut drywall, cut pipes, solder, etc.

Heh, so I installed a new faucet in our kitchen sink and thought I’d done a good job, I had hoses snaking all over the place and my wife was like “I can’t even use the pull-out sprayer because it won’t go back in once I pull it out.” So a few months later I call my plumber and ask if he can replace the valves under my kitchen sink because they’re old and the tolerances are outside my skill level for trying to saw them off and replace them. He comes out, spends an hour replacing the valves and then he’s like “oh yeah, I fixed all the hoses under the sink for no charge, the last guy did a horrible job, you can’t even use the sprayer!” I look under the sink and it’s like NASA came in and rerouted everything, tons of room, no crazy hoses hanging down, and the sprayer works!

I had plumbers out recently to replace a water heater.. after they left I went down to find out they had pushed the new one right up against the outlet the sump pump was using so I couldn't unplug that without moving the whole water heater. I'm not usually the one to complain that people don't take pride in their work but... it was a pretty visible and egregious error in a spacious and well conditioned utility room! Still haven't found anyone that goes above and beyond even for simple tasks.

Never mind 20 years old, I use a puller for much younger cartridges. Saves me needing the pull and pray method.

This is one of those things I believe to be more about feel.

That plumber has done this 1000 times and will make it look easy.

They can pass you tools, walk you through it, give you as much help as you can possibly receive, but you'll struggle a ton anyway. Or, as you say, break it.

Practice makes perfect. Sometimes it is still cheaper to get somebody who knows what they're doing. We can't yet remote that in.

I'm sure the local governments and their inspectors will have a bit of a say in that.

AR/VR does not make one experienced.

The downvotes are warranted but being “piloted” over the internet is a really interesting idea. There was a similar idea in the Black Mirror Christmas special.

Interesting idea, and maybe we already have a step toward remote piloting in the form of Youtube videos that explain how to do various tasks: plumbing, home improvement, auto repair, hvac, and so on.

I love all the downvotes for something that is definitely going to happen. YouTube how-to videos are just the beginning.

Just beginning... since 1979.

https://m.youtube.com/c/thisoldhouse

On-demand makes a huge difference. Most people aren't going to memorize how to fix everything that might go wrong. Youtube lets you search for how to fix something when it breaks.

Like a library?

Like a library with free video that's in your pocket and open 24/7. You don't think that makes a little bit of difference to the practicalities of what happens when e.g. your boiler stops working one evening?

Maybe for simple things. Have you ever tried to plaster a wall or ceiling? You can watch 100 videos of how its done, if you don't have the motor skills and muscle memories it's not so easy. And even 'simple' DIY might be doable for a sample of the population but there are also people who struggle with putting together flat pack furniture. Are they going to be brazing their plumbing after watching a youtube video?

Personally, I see society going in the opposite direction.

Back in the 1980s there were a lot more jobs in manufacturing, doing things like manual machining; and every driver had to have basic mechanic's skills because cars needed constant tinkering.

We've got many more youtube videos showing how to use a hacksaw - but far fewer people who use hacksaws on a daily basis.

Call me delicate, but until AR/VR is advanced enough to shield me from coming into contact with black- and grey-water, I'll stick to paying a pro.

Spoken like someone who is just itching to do their own dentistry.

Not affiliated but this AR tech seems promising:

https://carear.com/

Diagnose and fix things with what? Most people don't own plumbing tools.

Software has been outsourced since the 1990s and still wages continue to increase.

that will certainly never change.

yeah neither will the skill trade. make sure you go all in.

It won't change until people learn how to write better requirements, which means it will probably never change.

Software development in practice is rarely about how to build a thing, but very much about what to build.

And I have yet to see an outsourced shop that's good at solving that problem. (Sadly)

Do you think we are moving away from needing software any time soon?

Reminds me of when a plumber was installing an RO system in my house, was swearing for half an hour about the PEX, then forgot to shut-off the lines while a PEX fitting fell off and poured 200 gallons of water on my crappy fake wood shaw floor causing it to ripple. He then claimed it was my condos fault for using PEX in the first place. Holy crap you can't be more right.

I'm of the firm opinion that residential tradespeople are the Law of Lemons at this point. If they were better: they'd be doing commercial.

Consequently, if you find someone who doesn't do commercial, beware.

Exception: someone over the age of 55 who continues doing skilled work as a "pro-hobby."

I just want to emphasize your exception. Old tradespeople are the best! I have had nothing but good experiences with them. Young hotheads are everywhere in the trades and they can be so bad you have to call the police on them. Old guys who have survived for many years tend to be extremely knowledgeable and efficient in their work.

Related: Treat them better than you would a normal contractor. Because, honestly, they are probably doing you a favor. Which is to say, they could make more money doing another job with their skills, but are choosing to do yours.

"easily outsourced" haha, not it cannot! This is also a skill on its own (to successfully manage an offshore team. And noone wants to do it frankly, too much work, too little appreciation.

A big point is: (1) As an employee X, the employer knows how much X is making and will try to keep that down, while (2) a person X who owns their own business that happens to be a good business can just rake in the money with nearly no one else the wiser who can stop or slow X.

E.g., while I was growing up, a guy in the neighborhood was doing really well. He was in the peanut vending business, you remember, put in a coin, turn a crank, and get out some peanuts. So the customer, how do they know how much money the peanut vendor is making?

> can be easily outsourced to a country with lower wages

There are shops that specialize in "re-shoring" projects after cheap offshored contractors end up spending the complete project's budget without shipping anything working.

Their salespeople would talk to potential clients, get the project's duration, then quote them a reasonable price for domestic developers, get laughed out of the room as the company decide to go with much cheaper "best cost countries". Then a few months before the end of the contract they would contact the same company again and most of the times (assuming the company was still alive, a lot of badly capitalized startups just shut down at this point after having wasted all their runway) end up re-doing the project.

But hey, this time, it’s going to be different!

Software development is a team sport. It’s as much about having proper work cadence, communication, etc.

It’s really hard to outsource.

That doesn't stop management from trying, though.

One of the downsides is your job can be easily outsourced to a country with lower wages, and with remote work here to stay (IMO), that is going to be even easier than before

Only if PII isn't an issue. Which it still is for a large number of remote jobs. You have to do the work inside US borders because of liability or security issues for an incredibly large number of remote roles. If you don't believe me, just roll over to weworkremotely.com or any of the other remote job boards and check out how many current openings specify "USA only."

Well plumbing has problems as well: cognitive requirements are not especially high so in theory many people can do it if they are trained. Many immigrants to the U.S probably consider it.

There's a lot of misleading information out there. On this site I once saw a carpenter say he was making more than he used to make as a $300k software developer. But I had some carpenters working for me and somehow I figured out they made around a tenth of that. In reality some of the outliers making a ton of money are wearing many hats as sales/marketing people, employing and managing subcontractors and employees, perhaps running their own website and SEO, and to truly get the gravy train running they nail some big sale where they sell some huge contract for an overpaying corporate client.

My dad has run a skylight installation business since 1979, and at least over the past 30 years, has kept a payroll of about 10 employees.

His business grosses about $2M per year, apparently after payroll and supplies he nets $500k. He was claiming something like $300k back when my mom stopped working in the late 90s.

For some odd reason, my folks have next to nothing to show for it, at least not to retire comfortably as he's about to turn 75. They dson't live extravagantly aside from going on a few nice vacations a year that might total $30k. The condo they rent is $3500 month. They mostly eat at home or family style restaurants. They have a couple used Audi A4s w/ lease/insurance/gas maybe $2k total per month. You'd break even making maybe $180k

Even being extraordinarily bad w/ money, there is no conceivable way my father makes more than half what he claims.

Maybe you don't know about his drug/gambling/hooker habit?

Possibly :)

I've asked repeatedly for access to financials and to get more insight into my parents' retirement accounts and have met resistance, which is frustrating as I may have financial burden for their care coming up soon.

Maybe your dad can sell the business one day and retire on that?

It's been discussed many times, he's had it appraised and it's not as much as one would think - high 6 figures at best. Would pay for ~5 years at their current spend rate. But yes, that will likely happen and with their retirement savings and social security they'd have to move to a LCOL area.

Basic point is, if my father had truly earned the income he claimed for decades against the lifestyle lived, they should have a retirement nipping at 8 figures; living out retirement in relative luxury and going on fantastic vacations on the regular. Instead they will have to economize and there may be a point where I have to kick in financial assistance.

My purely anectodical experience with this is that when people that own these kinds of businesses say they make $500k a year they mean in their best year they made $500k. What they don't say is that for every year they made $500k they had 4-5 years where they were just barely scraping by. Construction is incredibly cyclical and there are a lot of lean years. I've also found a lot of them aren't great at managing the financial side of the business. A lot of the time they don't actually know how much they're making.

You want to look at median numbers, not average numbers.

Also you want to look at real earnings, which take into account cost of credentials, tooling, ongoing education, things like that.

In particular, pipefitters make a significant amount more money than plumbers, so I'd gather that that number is skewed downwards.

> doing physical labor can be hard on the body.

otoh sedentary labor can be hard on the body

> One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay,

you get high pay for a high paying job, and low pay for a low paying job. office or not is independent.

> stable hours,

maybe, but it again is down to the job itself, not just where you do it. the most stable hours i've ever gotten was working in a fab shop.

> relatively low stress

well, depending on the job. also, tge sedentary nature of the work in an office can be, besides hard on the body, a huge source of stress, and one that might be hard to identify until you've separated yourself from it.

> and get to work in an air-conditioned room.

thinking back to shitting in a portapotty at a quarter to six in the morning in winter-- i can't argue with this point!

> We also need to consider that running your own business is a lot of work, and doing physical labor can be hard on the body. One of the benefits of office jobs is that you get high pay, stable hours, relatively low stress and get to work in an air-conditioned room. So I would still prefer that over skilled trades even if the pay was the same.

On the flip side you stay in better shape, and therefore are healthier. When you work a physically demanding shop you exercise all day every day. With your typical office job, we’ll I have health issues from sitting too long.

I don't think that for this specific leaf of this thread that averages are what we're talking about actually. The immediate grandparent was referring (naively imo) to the differences between the highest possible reaches of academic financial performance. Otherwise I generally agree, except that my friend went from having zero prospects to being a pipefitter with a good enough salary to support a family of 2 and a house in a very short time. That's what seems most relevant. Who gives a shit about highest theoretical financial output.

> but we should go by averages, not outliers.

Or to be a little pedantic, by mean, not average. When Bill Gates walks into a dive bar the "average person" is temporarily is a billionaire.

Median?

That was my intent, but looking back on that post I really mangled the text when editing it. (Just look at that "is temporarily is".)

Well, too late to fix it now, I suppose it's a lesson on the perils of inadequate sleep and the risks of video-conference calls with people in wildly dissimilar timezones.

The average and the mean are the same thing.

Correct, "average" usually implies "arithmetic mean". I just accidentally the words before coffee enough sleep with meeting.

But I'm perfectly fine now, ossifer.

No worries, I know I could easily make the same mistake.

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