> You can earn 5% investment returns after inflation during your saving years
This is very unlikely long term. Right now treasuries are 5% less then inflation. Lots of FIRE people are going to get shafted.
This is very unlikely long term. Right now treasuries are 5% less then inflation. Lots of FIRE people are going to get shafted.
Your point may be that we should expect significant economic turmoil in the near- and medium-term, much more than "fluctuations", which may be true, or may not be. Impossible to predict the future.
Consider that the 2021 inflation rate is likely a symptom of COVID. Monthly inflation rates for the last few months of 2021 were trending downward. Hopefully we can expect inflation to get back to something approaching normal by the end of 2022. Even if it takes a couple more years, there's no reason to expect that 7% inflation is the norm going forward.
(Also consider that people who are doing FIRE certainly don't have much in treasuries. It's going to be mostly in stocks. That certainly carries other risks, of course.)
It's mostly a symptom of reckless monetary and fiscal policies.
> Monthly inflation rates for the last few months of 2021 were trending downward
It's the opposite if CPI is to be believed (which is a big if): https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri...
... as a result of the pandemic...
The US public will not tolerate sustained high inflation. Congresspeople and presidents who push monetary and fiscal policies that increase inflation (and nominate Fed leadership that do the same) will get voted out over time.