Ask HN: Why has Europe suffered so much from Covid? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Why has Europe suffered so much from Covid?

5 pointsvanilla-almond19 comments

When I say Europe I mean the EU + UK. This is one of the richest, most developed, and most prosperous regions in the world. Most citizens have access to free (but under strain) health services.

Europe is also fortunate to be sitting on an enormous stockpile of vaccines (while many other less weathly countries are still waiting patiently).

Given all the above, why did Europe suffer so greatly from the pandemic given its plentiful resources? Even the collection of statistics vary wildly from country to country and even within countries. (From under-reporting to over-estimates, to calculating excess deaths - will we ever know the true death toll directly and indirectly through COVID?)

One again, Europe is the epicentre of COVID as omicron spreads like wildfire around the continent.

Scientists and health workers have worked tirelessly throughout the pandemic. So is it the political response to the pandemic where most blame rests? Or it that simplifying an enormously complex topic?

I live in the UK (but not a European native) and my simple answer is that people over-simplify "Europe" — Europe is 44 countries, and the European Union is 27 member states. In reality, and unsurprisingly, both Europe and the EU are comprised of vastly different cultures; expectations and historical trust in government; wealth and access to healthcare; politics and government

Vaccination rates are very high across the United Kingdom, so you'd be surprised to find they're almost half in London. Why? London has a population comprised of many different cultures and backgrounds, each with their own perspectives on the role of government and trust in healthcare. London is very diverse and dense and the more regional parts of the UK are likely more homogeneous and sparse.

So I think the answer is that, Europe is big and singularly categorising every country into one "Europe" obscures this complexity.

Average age in Europe is pretty high, and age correlates with Covid severity.

Also, European healthcare systems are good at keeping people with chronic diseases alive, but multiple comorbidities tend to correlate with Covid severity.

Also, European homes tend to be a bit smaller than American ones, with many countries having multiple generations living together in the same house. (Extra typical for Italy, Spain...). This means that if someone in the house gets it, everyone else will.

It’s easy to confuse high test numbers and media coverage for a higher than average COVID rate.

But poorer countries are definitely suffering, too. Massively, in fact. You’re just not seeing the same testing numbers and media coverage because their infrastructure doesn’t support it.

COVID is everywhere right now.

But poorer countries are definitely suffering, too. Massively, in fact.

I completely agree. But the EU is not poor relative to the rest the world. Despite that, the pandemic appears to have been badly managed in many European countries.

Also consider that the released numbers in Europe might be more correct than other ( eg. non western) statistics.

Not many authoritarian regimes would submit the actual numbers ( undercounting), while eg. Belgium prefers overcounting.

Ps. This is not saying non-western = bad. I'm saying some prefer to lie or don't have the resources to do that much testing.

I perfectly believe that eg. South African stats was spot on and could be better than some European countries. Since that's a country i was following the last months.

Overcounting is equally lying too though, no? It makes the situation look worse than what it actually is, and potentially use that as a pretext for certain measures. Just say it as it is Bob!

Overcounting is counting a suspected COVID related death as a COVID death in statistics.

They were very clear about how they counted upfront. So i don't consider it lying. Statistics don't say everything if you don't know what they stand for (obligatory: see my profile slogan)

Ps. In this case, it was not hidden.

> Most citizens have access to free (but under strain) health services

(UK here). I politely and strongly disagree. Accessing healthcare is extremely challenging, made 3 times as more difficult because of COVID. There is a myriad of systems/policies designed to put you off, dissuade you and stop you accessing healthcare - it's adversarial.

Every single facet of healthcare in the UK is crumbling or has failed with the possible exception of A&E. We face the following issues:

- A doctor and nurse shortage

- A GP shortage (importantly: GPs are the gatekeepers to almost all non-emergency healthcare)

- Extreme difficulties getting GP appointments (we have a system where you have to phone up as soon as the lines open in the morning, to get a same-day appointment...along with 100 other people all trying at the same time. Yes, this is as stressful as it sounds)

- Overloaded A&E departments (in part because of the GP shortage - people skip their GPs and go to A&E)

- Lengthy wait times for ambulances (up to 12 hours)

- Near impossibility to register with an NHS dentist (particularly bad in England & Wales)

- Lengthy wait times for consultants/treatment (plus all kinds of tricks to kick your treatment down the road)

- Hospital bed shortages due to delays discharging people because they've nowhere to go, due to a broken social care system

I'm also from the UK. The NHS is stretched to it's capacity as you highlight. The early warnings that the NHS would be swamped led to a drop in the diagnosis of serious conditions (e.g. cancer). There remains a big backlog. No doubt some (many?) patients are facing serious conditions that might have been detected and treated earlier.

uh omicron is massively virulent and europe is densely populated wiht excellent transportation and high mobility. The vaccine doesn't do a good job at preventing transmission and has only limited ability to reduce symptoms, so what you are seeing is exactly what you'd expect. China-style lockdowns would never happen in europe.

Frankly, I think the public health leaders in all the major countries are doing more or less the best that they can.

If you're not qualified to work with public health stats, don't try to read them and interpret them. They are made for experts and it's irresponsible to push all these weird stats that require a phd to understand properly to individuals.

Omicron is easy to get. I was boosted but I just found out I got it this morning. (Sore throat, a little cough, no fever,…)

Maybe China can keep it out with brief but total lockdowns but we can’t do that in the free world not least because of the right-wing special snowflakes who are so offended because somebody (me!) flagged their post about dog pills for COVID-19.

The things we did in the core slowed down the other variants a great deal but are less effective against Omicron. We had a student outbreak at the end of the semester at Cornell in which maybe 5-10% of students got it but there was almost no transmission to faculty and staff because we have all kinds of countermeasures. Throughout most of the semester we had maybe 1/10 the positive rate of the surrounding community so I think our strict controls were working then.

The students left but the case count in Tompkins county has exploded in the month since then, this is in New York with lots of masks, high vaccination rates, etc. the ratio of cases to hospitalizations is roughly 1/7 of what it was last year so it seems less severe.

Less developed (periphery) countries have younger populations, often more sunlight and less reporting.

Same reasons as everywhere else: The vaccines ended up attenuating in their effectiveness faster than expected, while everyone who was vaxxed went around town (and going to restaurants, and clubbing, etc) thinking they were now bulletproof. As we have seen, they weren't.

This was in the news just 2 days ago: "U.S. reports 1.35 million COVID-19 cases in a day, shattering global record". I'm not sure why you're focusing so much on Europe, it's happening in other places as well.

If it makes you feel any better, those of us in the US wish we were doing as well as you guys.

I would be surprised if low vitamin D wasn't a major factor.

Old and fearful demographic. There is also merit to the statement that much testing => much "suffering".

Shitty european governments (France, Germany, Austria, Italy) are to blame.

For what?

For their "booster everyone" dogma that was based on razor-thin evidence, while neglecting infrastructure and resources for the vulnerable, as well as ignoring real transmission paths by implementing pointless rules for punishing the unboostered population, while the boostered population can happily spread the virus. It is starting to fire back now.

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