Lufthansa confirmed that 18k flights had been flown empty to keep slots
airlive.net
airlive.net
Of course, the correct way to allocate slots is to auction them off.
I agree of course that if a flight is happening only to maintain a slot then it's a ridiculous outcome. But as others have pointed out, there is cargo, plus pilots keeping current, plus keeping the plane in service (I dont believe you can just park a plane for months and then bring it into service again without a lot of work). Lots of procedures have been established under the premise of regular flights and it's not so simple to just rework all of them is my guess.
Under the current system, legacy carriers got their slots for free or very cheap so they do wasteful things to keep their slots. They've been using smaller than optimal planes for years, and since the pandemic started the empty planes thing has gotten more common.
Airports also benefit from stability, though; airlines taking up a large percentage of traffic at a hub drive more traffic than if all those slots were split due to network effects. And to some degree people who transit airports tend to transit the same ones, so there are downsides to hectic, constant auctions of slots.
The main issue is that COVID has made demand totally dry up across the board, and so the inherent assumption, that giving away a slot will bring in passenger traffic where there is none, has fallen apart.
"That’s the revenue that British Airways generated each year linking its London Heathrow hub and New York John F. Kennedy International Airport, where a healthy mix of tourist and business customers made it the most lucrative route on the planet"
So 12 flights a day would be $1Bn? A major route could have that kind of frequency. A billions dollars doesn't seem absurd.
The airline business is notoriously unprofitable, so yeah, the amount of revenue required to make a billion dollars profit would be something absurd, possibly more than the entire industry on many years
And there we go! While there's definitely cases where basically supply and demand trumps any other allocation system, in this case it will just kill competition and some will just hyperbole their expectations to win. Look at the UK's defunct rail franchising system where pure money play was used (they somehow always fails because they overbid).
The incentives structure has been all wrong in that there is basically no penalty for the parent companies in taking outsize risks and underfunding the operations and then walking away if they fail.
Align those incentives and the rail franchising will likely still have issues but nowhere near as bad as today. E.g. if Deutsche Bahn faced having Arriva (their subsidiary which owns it's UK train operating companies) or themselves having to actually put up financial guarantees for the full period and facing long term effects on their ability to bid for future franchises, their bids would look very different.
Put another way: When Virgin and Stagecoach were actually held to reasonable standards (being expected to actually properly fund pensions? the horror) which led to Stagecoach being disqualified from several bids they caused a massive stink and Virgin Trains closed.
There are many stories of governments trying to half-bake a market system resulting in failure. You have to set that against the absurd result of 18,000 empty flights of a fully regulated system.
AFAIK airports charge airlines start and landing fees. By threatening airlines to loose their slots they ensure their steady revenue stream.
In 2019, Heathrow’s retail revenues were £722M, out of £3B in total revenue. https://www.moodiedavittreport.com/heathrow-airport-retail-r...
Keeping pilots current and keeping planes in service? At least down to 10% slot use, I'd be surprised if that's a real issue.
While the airlines are saying we need to do this so that the gates are available when demand returns, what they’re actually doing is making it impossible for any new airlines to start up.
Basically the cost of these empty flights is less than the cost of competition from a new carrier.
But yes, fundamentally it's a case of the cost of operation being lower than the risk posed by new airlines.
2. "whatever it costs to actually operate the flight" is... well, good luck negotiating that bill :)
NB: they are not flying empty because no one wants a seat! They would be able to sell some seats! Even at previously-prevailing market rates! And of course could fill the plane if they sold the seats at any price!
They are flying empty because they can't sell enough seats at a high enough price to justify the fixed cost of the number of cabin staff required if there are customers on the flight.
It's about cabin staff regs, not about literally no one wanting to fly.
So... that 20% does matter.
And in return, they are maintaining a complex system that has no central authority and is not easy to change. It doesn't sound ideal, but I also know that it's not something the single "they should just" solutions that outsiders propose will actually work in. Hopefully things get closer to normal soon and we won't have to worry about it.
If there's something Europe needs, it's more taxes and more regulation.
By switching to a tax for unused gates/ flight slots that is 80% of the cost of flying an empty if plane, the Airline saves money, the airport makes money, and the environment has fewer CO2 solutions. It is a win-win-win on all sides.
If you switched this over to a tax you'd also need government programs to deal with the unemployment, lack of pilots and other ramp-up issues when this situation ends etc.
While A-B might empty, you need the plan landed on B to take the other two routes…
I worked a few months for an Airline and IMHO it’s one of the most complex operational model I ever saw. Fuel, weight, different fueling prices per location, dynamic pricing, crew management, climate, route management, maintenance, green laws, …
It’s full of challenges.
Having planes fly empty to maintain a monopoly is just bad all around
http://travelweekly.co.uk/articles/324401/heathrow-slot-auct...
Lufthansa's interest is piqued. They already price out competitors, they've bought many smaller airlines (even the "national" airlines Swiss and Austria) and operate them at slim to negative margins to keep the workers quiet (the threat of bankruptcy prevents them from rebelling too much)..
IIRC (and correct me if I'm wrong) if a commercial pilot goes a long time without flying they'd need to spend some time to retrain or something?
A large airline could probably manage this better but if a smaller airline (city hoppers, especially) sacked off empty flights, they might not have the inventory or pilots to manage future legs.
I'm not arguing against action. The current situation is ludicrous.
Competition can't possibly enter once a market has been established, thus the customer ultimately loses.
That's all fine in normal times but in a pandemic crisis (or environmental crisis) it's very silly.
... on the blockchain.
:sigh:
I truly despise the global administrative class.
[1] https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/4/18216045/ren...
I don’t care if they made money, it’s still immoral.
Edit: thank god I recycled some cans today.
I definitely see it as being used to excuse bad behavior, which is a step up from resignation IMO
> "People will follow incentives" might as well be a law of physics, and not accepting it is like not accepting the inverse-square law for gravitation.
This seems to deny any moral agency to "people". If someone were to offer $100 million to whomever kills the CEO of Lufthansa, anyone taking them up on that offer would be morally culpable. Hopefully we don't just resign ourselves to say "yeah, I'd have killed the CEO too, people follow incentives"
Similarly, saying that Lufthansa is evil for destroying the environment is some shade of true but also useless. If incentives dictate large organizations to destroy the world, they will do so, and the fact that they are evil is moot. This does not excuse the evil, indeed the most immediate corollary would be that we should change the incentives, say, by punishing the airline and more importantly rewriting the rules to punish future infractions, which is better than changing the rules after the fact.
I'm pretty sure we agree about concrete issues (what happened was bad, we should make it stop) so my beef is perhaps philosophical, but people get so hung up on discussion about how this corporation is evil and that politician is corrupt and so on, and this line of thought where you try to classify the world into actors of various shades of morality is useless! Saying that someone was evil is useless without a workable plan to replace them with a reliably good person, but such plans (and people) almost never exist! People will follow incentives, and the only thing that ever works at scale is setting things up so that "evil" actors will do the right thing out of self-interest! /end rant
People are fucking weird.
I'm not sure how to phrase it properly, but there is a strong selection for people with lax morals here for the simple reason that it's a competitive advantage. A founder with lax morals will generally outcompete someone with stronger morals, as such few people at the top of organizations of any size have strong morals
I ask because I'm a former infantryman and I personally know a handful of people who have. Of those people, most were quite sure they wouldn't have a problem with it, but guess what ...
People have been killed for a lot less than $100M though.
When people say "they're just responding to incentives", what they often imply is that we should be changing the incentives, or going after the people who made those incentives. I think that's true on both a practical and moral level.
On a practical level, we are not going to get a corporation to make less money, for the most part, by appeals to morality. It just doesn't work. Changing the incentives absolutely does work. Both of these have been proven time and again.
On a moral level, I really don't think it's the fault of companies when they respond to incentives. We have a society in which people elect representatives to pass laws and regulations. If they pass bad laws and regulations and people follow them, then it's the regulators' fault, not the people they regulate. You can't have every person in the system enacting their own idea of morality - partially because they don't have the complete picture, partially because they don't have the same morality, partially because any company that decides to change how it behaves without the regulations themselves changing will just be outcompeted in most cases.
The one big caveat to that is that companies have a pretty massive amount of influence on the regulators themselves, and they can definitely use that influence in moral or immoral ways.
I often see this on HN in form of "working on X thing is immoral and everyone should just quit and not accept that work" and it makes the commenter feel superior to all the immoral people who work on immoral projects all the while forgetting that people just want to put food on the table.
In case it is not painfully obvious to you by now: YOU would have also been following orders had you been there.
I'm also entirely sure that the people who made this decision weren't thinking of food security, but just regular old securities.
Is it really immoral to follow orders that were issued by an entity that has a monopoly on violence?
I have to think again just wow. Your example is such an extreme stretch with almost no relation to reality.
What are you arguing here, that if you're not "disenfranchised", you're morally responsible for actions that you're compelled to do?
>There’s no NATO nation remotely holding a gun to any big companies head. In any sense of the word.
The airlines are also not pulling a trigger on a gun.
Honestly, wtf.
In utilitarian ethics it depends on how people value life. If everyone is equal it doesn't matter, because you trade one life for another. If we allow the system to be higher order and allow for a symmetry split in "self vs other" then self-preservation becomes the moral thing.
It consequentalist ethics the previous details can be formalized differently, but it helpfully points out that if you are coerced then someone is coercing you, hence your moral agency is pretty much diminished. Yet if the consequence of your actions is that someone dies and without your actions they wouldn't have died, then sure, it's morally wrong. But that's hard to know when you have to make such a decision.
In virtue ethics you can simplify this to simply say that protecting the life of others' is a virtue and shooting people in the head is a vice, so let's do the virtuous thing! (Of course protecting your own life is a virtue too!)
(And AI Alignment folks spend pages upon pages discussing these problems of how to even began thinking about a formal ethics that is sort of computable. Should the agent predict the consequences of their possible actions and then compute the utilitarian value of them and thus choose the action that has the most utility? Should the agent factor in the possible actions of the coercer? Should the agent factor in time? If the agent is terminated it cannot maximize future utility. If the agent can live forever by default, then future utility can be much much much more than the utility of "one life". Should then one human life be valued at "infinite + 1"? Are we on a tangent to transfinite ordinals? Yes, yes we are! https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL3A50BB9C34AB36B3 )
So yes, it is inmoral.
Did they prosecute every single soldier of nazi germany for war crimes? For good measure did they also prosecute every single civil servant of nazi germany, because they helped the regime operate?
The EU, which is where this regulation comes from, has no "monopoly on violence", it doesn't have any army or police jurisdiction. Maybe there are some security forces that physically guard the various EU buildings and officials? Huge monopoly there!
That's like saying the legislature doesn't have a monopoly on violence because they don't have a police force or army. The EU laws are enforced through its member states. If they refuse they're kicked out, which usually provides enough incentive.
Absolute bullshit. Member states cannot be forced out of the EU. Laws are proposed by the EC and voted by the EU Parliament, both of which are representative of the EU member states.
So what happens if EU enacts some sort of legislation, and a member state refuses to implement it?
>both of which are representative of the EU member states.
How is this relevant? Does having representation mean you don't have a monopoly on violence? That's like saying the US government doesn't have a monopoly on violence, because congress votes on laws and is representative of its citizens.
At the end, deep down, whenever you pass a law or regulation or whatever, you're essentially forcing people to do something at the threat of violence. That is how laws are enforced - either with fines, which turn into violence if you refuse to pay them, or with actual violence.
It's not an empty idea to remember that that is what is actually being proposed, even if it's sometimes painted in nicer language. (And less relevant to our immediate discussion, but this same concept is relevant in the fact that some minor offense can sometimes literally turn into police ending up killing people, e.g. the various horrible cases in the US that sparked BLM protests.)
In free societies, the monopoly on violence is granted by the people in order to create a more just society than would exist in the alternative (power granted through popular or mob violence.) It only considers violence as encoded in law to be justified to that end, not all forms of violence committed by any person representing the state. So police arresting and detaining people is an example of the state exercising its monopoly on violence, but police brutality isn't.
You should not receive order that are inhumane. And you should not have regulation set up in a way that bad behavior makes you money.
Are these the same people that turned off Germany's nuclear plants so they could import fossil fuels instead?
In some ways, it's even harder than adapting complex software systems: At least software systems don't commonly consist of subsystems with independent, self-interest-seeking goal structures that lobby you during design for features they favor or exploit latent defects post-deployment.
We should make headlines this way all the time
Palestine and CAR roughly use a bit more than a combined 200 Gigawatt hours/year. That’s low double digits kilowatt hours/yer/person.
For some context, the US uses 5 megawatt hours/year/person. That’s under 50K average electricity usage per year per person outdoing both countries with a combined population closing in on 150x. Obviously this is oversimplifying things but outdoing energy, carbon emissions, what have you, of a number of countries wouldn’t be difficult.
The switch to paper straws was theoretically about eliminating single use plastics.
As someone who has done scientific surveys of beach flotsam: my personal feeling is that the switch to paper straws will change precisely nothing as far as global plastic pollution goes.
Instead of banning plastics we should have invested in waste management infrastructure in the developing countries where almost all the ocean plastic originates from. Probably would have been cheaper too.
[1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC3222987/
[2]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC3572204/
We've removed BPA, but there are plenty of other hormone analogues we're exposed to. Soy, for instance.
Endocrine alteration is probably nowhere near as bad as the particulate matter we're breathing in, the amount of sugar we're consuming, or the time we're spending on our phones.
All this to say that I don't think "plastics as hormones" is as bad as the other stuff we have to worry about. We should triage it appropriately.
Which, like it or not, is one of the best things we can do for the environment.
Nature quickly healed.
I pretended that using the recycling bin would change something, but I know that nobody takes our garbage anymore.
https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=29879903&goto=threads%...
What are you exposed to in order to come up with this stuff?
The point is that paper everything is an uninspired knee jerk reaction that isn’t holistic enough to address the environmental impact
But now I get why: They have been busy flying empty planes.
I can't blame them too much though. They are trying to cope up with regulations and their competitors are fierce.
meanwhile, in a country that left the EU:
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1200/made/data.pdf
> These Regulations make three changes in relation to slots allocated for the scheduling period which runs from 31st October 2021 to 26th March 2022 ...
> the list of reasons on the basis of which non-utilisation of slots can be justified, which appears in Article 10(4) of the Regulation, is expanded to include certain government-imposed measures related to COVID-19 which severely reduce the viability of, or demand for passenger travel on, the route in question.
It's literally in the begining of the article, the regulations were adapted for COVID, but it was apparently insufficient. Do you have any valid criticism of the regulation or is it just "bad" because "Europe"?
> meanwhile, in a country that left the EU
At least they can claim one good thing came out of Brexit. They need any win, however small.
"apparently insufficient" doesn't count as bad?
relaxing these requirements during a period of heavily restricted air travel is an objectively correct policy
the organisation's institutional inflexibility/political inability to solve this very simple problem is yet another demonstration of the EU's current structure being unfit for purpose (or able to respond in a timely manner to current events)
> At least they can claim one good thing came out of Brexit. They need any win, however small.
there are plenty
note that any perceived negative changes are immediately reported as a direct consequence of leaving
however the converse is not true: positive changes don't tend to be reported as a direct consequence of leaving
make of this what you will
(and unsurprisingly: it takes a while to see the effects of more responsive and accountable governance)
So I had a dig and see if the EU did anything and they did it seems - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021...
Though it does seem that the results are mixed and good coverage here: https://www.airportwatch.org.uk/2022/01/european-airlines-ha...
RealLifeLore2 also covered the same topic as the original submission: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR1a_LO4hSk
So what about mechanical issues? Are you allowed a certain percentage - is there a buffer or has anyone ever had too many mechanical issues and lost a slot thereby because they went down below the percentage.
on edit: text somewhat confused as we have the percentage of flights that can be missed, and my asking about the percentage of mechanical issues that one can have as well as the percentage of cancellation of flights due to weather and how it affects things.
It's also not feasible to switch carriers too often, as the carriers need some amount of infrastructure of their own, time to fold in service/schedules, local employees or contractors, etc. Some airports now have common use gate terminals, networks, kiosks...that helps, but it's only a small percentage of them.
I'm sure there's a better system for how things are now, but I think it was set up with the right ideas in mind at the time.
I'm absolutely certain they would. Monopolies are incredibly profitable, after all, and a repeatable strategy for killing off all newcomers is step zero.
I.e., that government rule was created to address a rational but pathological behavior in a market.
Lufthansa could always not fly those routes. But then the business would lose money to fines, possibly lose gates, and maybe go bankrupt.
So, yes, in the name of the business. And of course that business's behavior is completely predictable.
Anyways.
Pointing fingers at isms is a waste of time. Businesses operate in markets. Markets are human inventions. Especially in the case of something like an airline, a Market is a Market in the Stock Market sense not in the Bazaar sense.
The question is: how do we modify market rules without re-introducing the aforementioned pathology?
Which is a REALLY hard question! The simplest solution, from a market perspective, might be charging a fair price for carbon, such that this sort of behavior is no longer rational. Of course, that's a non-started politically, so... here we are.
But anyways you “stop pointing fingers” is funny when it’s literally a government rule creating this mess.
seems pretty obvious? drop the flight requirements when covid lockdowns are on and flight volume is low, then when flight volume picks up reinstate it. It's not rocket science.
The problem is that the EU is requiring using X% of flight slots (reduced due to Covid), but those flights aren't actually running due to low demand, so empty flights are used to hit X%.
If they simply reduced X%, then they could run fewer flights.
Or you disagree?
Sad that it took EIGHTEEN THOUSAND empty flights before the bureaucrats noticed something might be amiss.
Maybe you could call them an arbiter - not because they arbitrate anything, but because they can act arbitrarily, that is, they have the power to make exceptions from the rule.
A lot of people don't have faith in democracy and call for a "strong man" to take matters in his own hands. I believe if there was an office like this, we could take the wind out of their sails.
For some flights this might even make it profitable without passengers (but those are rare long haul routes)
Meanwhile, Lufthansa has to fly all the way to Elbobia to keep its elbonian slots and has the most incentive to give them up.
E.g. the local Dutch airline can keep its dutch spots a lot more easily than a Canadian airline.
(I’m assuming airlines own slots and not routes).
If you change but nobody else does, only you lose.
Edit: it was HN apparently, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29818050
That would ensure that (1) people will book confidently and not create a death spiral, while 2) avoiding wasteful emissions
350k Lufthansa flights, 18k empty.
Which is around 5%.
Considering covid levels of traffic last 2 years, this 5% is totally ignorable.
But ofc it is always good to justify plastic straws etc.
Sounds like there are no good answers here, omicron came too quickly
We could have suspended the rule for gates reserved prior to the pandemic, for example.
Summer fights were almost normal. And even flights up to December weren't too affected.
Anyone else feel te same or is it just me?
Essentially, a permit granted by an airport to an airline to schedule a takeoff or landing at a particular time / around that time.
Why wasn't this solved another way... /rhetorical-question
Now made even messier by the German government's 20% stake, which resulted from the Covid-induced necessity for a state bailout.
Seriously.
This was nearly a year ago. Have they done something since to correct this that you could expand on?
Unfortunately you seem to be attracting a handful of thoughtful responses alongside some other over-trodden irony, but the latter means the former is going to at best be sunk to the bottom of the page and at worst, live on only in a detached thread.
This form of entitlement is more disgusting to me than any snarky comments.
>The best-performing 60-watt equivalent LED bulbs available today consume 85 percent less energy than their incandescent counterparts. [...] Lighting accounts for 15 percent of global electricity consumption and 5 percent of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions
https://www.energy.gov/articles/rise-and-shine-lighting-worl...
I'm not going to do any math here, but based on those numbers it seems plausible that the whole world switching to LED lamps will offset all the "flights had been flown empty to keep slots" in the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel?oldformat=true#...
So it's already possible to not have to change a normal light bulb for 10 years — in fact there's currently a bulb that's been burning for 118 years.
The parent comment actually makes a good point, and shifting the blame for global warming to non-corporate entities is disingenuous. Sure, go ahead and recycle, buy LEDs instead of incandescent bulbs, buy local produce, these are all good things to do and I would never discourage them, but let's not buy into the nonsense that it's going to make a dent compared to say, shipping containers (https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads/cargo-container-shipping...). To do so would move focus away from where things really need to change.
If I was someone partial to conspiracy theories, I might point out that this shift in focus is convenient for the corporate entities I alluded to.
Yes I have, actually https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26946432
>So it's already possible to not have to change a normal light bulb for 10 years — in fact there's currently a bulb that's been burning for 118 years.
yeah, the trade-off is that it's horribly inefficient and wastes more energy than it costs to replace.
As I said, I would never discourage people using LEDs, recycling etc. for other very good reasons. I just think it's important that we're honest on the impact of me using 2 LED bulbs in my house, vs. an entire office block having their lights and air conditioning on overnight.
Let's focus on making changes where it will have a large impact, like the shipping containers I mentioned. Anything else is counterproductive.