Lukashenko and Tokayev talked about the situation in Kazakhstan

Geopolitical spitballing here:

Russia masses troops on the border with Ukraine while at the same time using intelligence agencies to increase instability in Kazakhstan. Russia can then claim western retaliation and meddling in Kazakhstan by the West and CIA secondary to the Ukraine situation. Russian troops move into Kazakhstan under auspices of the CSTO. The civil situation is further escalated and more troops are needed. After months of instability Russia reabsorbs Kazakhstan.

I think it probably happens because Russia has been annexing territory since 1999/2000 (when Putin first came to recognized power). For example they retook Chechnya during the second Chechen war, annexed parts of Georgia, and annexed the Crimea from Ukraine.

Here’s a list of Russian actions, scroll to recent history. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russi...

They’re all victories. Kind of a foreign concept in my jingoistic American brain.