The investor’s dilemma: Earnings, valuation and what to do now

Analysts at bank tend to be too short term focused. That's pretty much it.

It's next to impossible to figure out how things are going to change in just 3 months, but analysts tailor their estimates and reports to arrive at where stocks will be within that timespan.

The best use of analysts is not so much to arrive at where to buy and sell a stock but rather to obtain data on supply / demand which you can use to come to your own conclusions.

I recommend anyone who is interested in investing read some of the good books on the subject. The millionaire next door, or the wealthy barber are fine. Buffetology is good if you're fairly new, while Timothy Vicks "Invest like Warren Buffett" or any of this other books about Buffett are better.

Don't get your advice from newspaper articles, which are generally written by reporters, like this one. The massive spending our government is doing, along with the terrible shape that many states and municipalities are in, make holding %50 of your money in bonds more risky than "conventional wisdom" assumes.

The events in the real estate market alone should be a wake up call that conventional wisdom ("real estate never goes down") is not always right, you have to do your homework and use judgement.

Also, not a big fan of the TV and radio financial gurus. Generally they give excellent advice when it comes to getting out of debt and getting your spending under control, but terrible advice when it comes to actually investing, generally because they are advising the lowest common denominator (not smart people like the ones reading this forum.)

I've been investing personally for about 20 years, and what I learned was that my returns were %100 a result of discipline and rationality, not the state of the market. The best discipline is to invest only when you know what your return is going to be beforehand. IF you're guessing, you're gambling. If you understand the risk well enough to calculate it, then you'll do much better. And if you don't, or can't understand the risks, then stay out until you do. Some of my most profitable investment periods were the ones where I pulled out because the markets were not acting as I expected, and in doing so, I avoided the losses my strategy would have otherwise given me.

Failing to lose %50, and then making %25 the next year is a %100 return compared to losing the %50 and then making %25 from the smaller base. (EG: You have $100 on the sidelines, then earn $25, giving you $125, verses, losing $50, then earning $12.50 giving you $62.50.)