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Comment by sAbakumoff | Hacker News Reader

I was born in Kazakhstan. In the 90s, after the USSR fell apart, we witnessed an incredible rise of nationalism that resulted in anti-Russian sentiment. So, like many other families, we escaped Kazakhstan in the late 90s.

Now..The Russian army is sent to quell deadly unrest. If the Kazakhstan army joins protesters, it could end up with a full-scale war between Russian "invaders" and "patriots" driven by the same nationalism.

PS. 2022 is gonna be fun(not).

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It's very weird to see the President argue 'foreign interests' spark the unrest, and then promptly invites a foreign army to quell it. Who's falling for that?

>foreign interests

I think he meant the US

Well, given the US-Russia conflict over Ukraine, this conflict is awfully well-timed for the US.

Not everything in life is a conspiracy, and people often rebel spontaneously against their government. Not every revolution in a country ruled by Putin and Pals is waiting for The White House to give the green light.

Also, did the US tell the regime in Kazakhstan to raise oil prices? That was, obviously, not the people’s only grievance, but it was the spark that lead to the protests and rebellion.

The “US meddling” excuse is a tired cliche, and insulting to the people who put their lives on the line to fight oppressive, corrupt regimes.

Pray tell, what exactly happened on 6th of January outside the Capitol? Why some people are allowed to fight corruption, but others aren't?

Isn't the US lobiying another word for corruption?

That was another spontaneous rebellion. If anything it proves grandparent's point.

It was organized in advance on social media. Some people even had t-shirts printed. It may have been "headless", in that it's difficult to identify organizers, but it wasn't entirely spontaneous.

It remains an open question as to whether any of the posters on social media talking up the idea to protest at the capitol, or the mysterious person with the hoodie and bag of pipe bombs, were sponsored by overseas enemies of the US. There is as yet no hard evidence for this. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jan-mystery-pipe-bombs-night...

You have it backward. The January 6th Riot was not motivated by a desire to oust a dictator. At the time, Donald Trump was President, and he wanted to remain President despite losing the election.

As for corruption in the US, I acknowledge it, but it’s laughable to compare it to what happens in countries run by Putin and Pals. In Russia, Kazakhstan, Syria, etc. the people’s only choice is rebellion. In the US, we (still) have the ballot box.

I have not seen any evidence that they are directly behind it, but I am pretty sure that the various US services jump on oppurtunities as they see them. In particular in the former Soviet union.

> Also, did the US tell the regime in Kazakhstan to raise oil prices?

I don't know if they did, but it wouldn't exactly be out of character for the US to encourage a country to do market liberalization reforms.

There isn't a US-Russia conflict over Ukraine. US had no part of Ukraine's uprising. Late in the Trump presidency long after issues had settled, the US started getting involved with selling supplies.

Absolutely agree. People are downvoting you, because they have problems contemplating that people from poor(er) countries have the ability to think for themselves.

This is very much untrue. The US began getting involved Ukraine the moment Russia began sowing discontent and violence in Ukraine - as early as 2012.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/08/politics/us-ukraine-security-...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-to...

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/18/788874844/how-u-s-military-ai...

...and I won't get into the donations from Ukraine to the Clinton Foundation at the same time.

All but one of those articles is from well after 2012 (2019 and 2021). And the earliest one you linked is from 2014, from after the point even when Crimea was annexed. So your sources don't jive with your statement.

Yes, it's that damn CIA who forced Nazarbayev to appoint his son as the head of the national gas company and then forced said son to raise the gas prices. Damn you, CIA! (shakes fist at sky)

Foreign army in this context is just using a treaty you signed with an ally to request assistance.

It’s as “foreign” as any NATO country’s army to another.

It'd be very strange if the French government asks Germany or Nato to quell the gilet-jaunes demo, wouldn't it?

And yet intelligence agencies routinely spy for one another to get around those pesky warrant and probable cause requirements.

It's almost like intelligence work and active military operations aren't the same thing...

Aren't most people from Kazakhstan pretty anti Russia?

Wouldn't this be more like Taiwan asking China to send in the army to help with a protest?

Or Iraq asking Iran?

Except that NATO countries are not run by tzars in their 70-ies whose only hope is to die quietly in bed, surrounded by elite killers.

> It’s as “foreign” as any NATO country’s army to another.

I don't believe your comparison is even remotely adequate.

Could you point out an example of a NATO member requesting a military intervention from another NATO member in their own country to respond to protests?

Because what we're seeing here is a blatant attempt by Russia to preserve Kazakhstan's regime by having foreign armed forces intervene against the nation's civilian population.

I think you are missing the point

I doubt OP is _condoning_ the CSTO troops (who are more than just russia) coming to the president's aid.

CSTO is not the same as NATO, but it is similar. There is a strategic alliance between Russia and the government of Kazakhstan. It is more than logical for the president to pull in troops to counteract their own troop's defection.

Its not morally correct, but entirely logical, which I think OP was trying to say.

> Could you point out an example of a NATO member requesting a military intervention from another NATO member in their own country to respond to protests?

The US militarily intervened in Europe 75 years ago and has bases in Germany, Italy etc. No need to have military come in for the first time since it is still there.

Italy had NATO violently suppressing protests in Italy for years with Gladio.

Assistance against their own people. That's a big "nope".

Using the military against one's own people is already a "nope", getting foreign assistance sounds exactly like a foreign invasion.

I'm not a fan of NATO, but usually they are a bit more subtle than inviting each other to quell each other's rebellions.

Their collective security treaty is… interesting. I wonder how Russian people would react if situation was opposite and Kazakh paratroopers landed in Kazan, for example. Calling civil unrest “foreign terrorism” is not new in history for sure, but not in the age of internet. What to say, no “end of history” in sight

Maybe you can help me here. My reading of the situation is that it was an attempted revolution against a dictator after he made a devastating unilateral decision to raise prices for a critical fuel. Am I missing something?

The raise of fuel prices was an immediate cause but it probably was long burning dissatisfaction with the economic hardships of the masses vs. prosperous kleptocratic elite.

On the other hand it seems that the economy of Kazakhstan was one of the best among other stans. It is possible that prolonged covid restrictions also played the role.

No no no, it's all the war between US and Russia, people are just dust, they can only be manipulated! /s

(this is what every russian bot is saying)

You're right about something. But civil and peaceful protests cannot be so well organized and take place so quickly and occupy so many significant places. It looks too organized and therefore suspicious. Perhaps people are dissatisfied with the authorities and living conditions, but perhaps someone is trying to use the protests to their advantage and manage them.

Fire doesn't need any organization. It just needs oxygen and a spark. And I don't see how these protests are "well organized". People are just running, burning, and disabling government buildings. It's just like fire to me.

The US does that sort of thing, in general. But so far, the US hasn't been terribly subtle about it. Usually when the US government wants to get rid of a government, you'll know it (if you pay attention). Where are the "National Endowment for Democracy"-funded front groups? Where's the immediate condemnation of the couped leader?

I don't say It's necessary US. It maybe some elites(or oligarchs), but maybe and foreign intelligence trying to control people actions...

Civil and peaceful protests work in democracies, not in tyrannies. If you don't believe me ask Belorussians how peace is going for them. Dictator is called that for a reason, you won't impress him with flashlights, songs, and dances even if the whole country is dancing.

TL;DR: do not bring a flashlight or guitar to a gun fight. Drinks (cocktails in particular) on the other hand...

Is it not against the rules to keep calling other users bots simply because they do not agree with you?

I don't call other users bots. I understand that people can have an opinion that coincides with what Russian propaganda impose. In this case, the fact that they sound the same as Russian bots is completely unrelated to me, my opinions, or my comments.

Based on what independent media report, my understanding is the same. Protests began after 2x gas prices surge. Local law enforcement was not able and/or was not willing to quell protesters. The president of Kazakstan claimed that protests are "terrorist attacks that sponsored and organized by foreign actors" and asked Putin and co. for military help.

Yes, the "foreign actors" part is an obvious lie to justify the Russia's help.

The fuel prices caused protests in one region. The others joined in solidarity. But after seeing how much support the protests have, more people started joining and the protest became political, demanding to change the regime.

In Almaty, the protests got violent with killings and mass looting. A few other cities saw looting and destruction of ex-president's statues, but most of Kazakhstan was peaceful, including the place where the original gas-price protests started. The violence part does not represent the sentiment of the majority, I would bet, it's something organized; I don't know by whom and for what reason.

Especially that there is a clear pattern of looted and untouched property (if you look closely to the property owner).

Oh, really? What's the pattern? (I'm not in Almaty, so I can't see it myself.)

Another commenter mentioned that due to recent rising gas prices, it's become very profitable for smugglers to transport LPG across the border to Kyrgyzstan and China, selling for up to 3x the price (buy at subsidized Kazakh prices, sell at market rate). This black market is so profitable for the usually low-income Kazakhs, that organized crime has sprung up around it (a la Al Capone). The government decreased the subsidies due to this discrepancy, and organized crime around Almaty is the one encouraging and enflaming the protests to ensure their profitable smuggling.

THe prices were still very low. And the decision was almost immediately reversed. Any economical problem can't justify violent uprising with takeover of an airport and decapitating of police officers, etc. etc. Never.

Our only source for "decapitation of police officers" are Russian telegram accounts which, there is no question, are 100% trustworthy (they are not; what happened to that poor "little boy in underwear crucified in Ukraine" that never existed). On the other hand, we've got plenty of evidence of police shooting protesters, including in the head. I'm somehow sure relatives of the murdered are not OK with that. I wouldn't even be surprised if they demanded revenge and acted on it (family means more in that part of the world and it's way bigger, too).

No, it is the official Kazakhstan source, not Russian telegram accounts. The uprising is very vioulent without any doubts. There are a lot of sources to confirm captures of government buildings and posession of arms. Speaking of Ukraine, do you remember a "burned AC unit" in Lugansk? That was not media, that was official Ukrainian statement.

> No, it is the official Kazakhstan source

Which source? The one that requested Russian intervention? Why there are lots of videos of protests, shootings, killings by the Kazakh army, and looting by unidentified people but only words of the interested party for this one?

I don't remember the "AC unit" but I do remember Russian media's "100% sure version of 2 Ukraine planes downing the Netherlands' jet" a few years ago (with interviews of "experts" all over the place). That was their position for a long time (maybe half a year, until they shamelessly changed it to "Ukraine BUKs did it"). The "beheading story" seems like a fairy tale from the same authors.

You don't remember the AC unit? Really? You can start from here: https://www.unian.net/politics/924578-luganskie-terroristyi-... and go on to read all the reactions of Ukrainian officials from this moment and on. Please do so. It's never too late to do.

BTW, it has nothing to do with Kazakhstan's legitimate goverment, which is free to request military assistance from an organization (not just from Russia, if it matters).

So what drives this conflict? As I understand the ousted government was nationalist yet it asked Russia for help?

Likely losing power means loss of fortunes, privilages and for some people even life, so they will do anything to stay in power.

So much anti-russian sentiment that 30% of population is still russian and russian is the second (if not first) most spoken language in Kazakhstan

After covid I just accept we are living in hell. Everything about the systems we exist in is a joke. At the end of the day, just embrace the madness I guess.

Nah. It is going to be fine.

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