I’ve done hundreds of interviews like this, and it’s fascinating watching what people do. Do they read the code first? Fire up a debugger? Add print statements and binary search by hand? I had one candidate once add more unit tests, to isolate a bug more explicitly.
After hundreds of interviews I still couldn’t tell you which approach is best. But if there’s one trend I noticed it’s that more senior people (& older people) seem to do better at this assessment. Which is fascinating. And that implies it’s not simply a test of what tools the person is familiar with most recently.
As for luck, I agree this is a problem. It’s mitigated somewhat by having a bunch of easy bugs to fix instead of one hard one. But even a debugging problem like this should be one of a set of assessments you perform. If you fail 5 small assessments in a row it’s probably not luck.