Comment by druadh | Hacker News Reader

Comment by druadh | Hacker News Reader

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The progress made on full self driving (FSD) has been quite transparent, at least compared to Theranos. I worked at Tesla from 2017 - 2019 and the quality of Enhanced Autopilot probably quadrupled in the that small amount of time. I left before being able to experience the progress made on FSD, unfortunately.

I agree that Elon's timeline's are absolute BS. My perspective on his timelines are that they are almost meant more for his employees (throughout all his companies) to try and shorten the time it takes to 'achieve the impossible'. For example, something that most industry folks would think will take 20-30 years (or is feasibly impossible ie. reusable rockets), Elon gives a 5 year timeline and his team actually gets it done in 10 -- still less time than anyone thought possible.

I'm excited to see what kind of progress is made on FSD once the DOJO supercomputer is built out and put to work (another item with an unrealistic timeline, I've no doubt).

Just my two cents. Enjoy your Model 3!

> For example, something that most industry folks would think will take 20-30 years (or is feasibly impossible ie. reusable rockets), Elon gives a 5 year timeline and his team actually gets it done in 10 -- still less time than anyone thought possible.

No one realistically thought reusable rockets were impossible or even infeasible. Reusable rockets trade lift capacity for reusability. A single-use Falcon 9 lifts more than a reusable one because it can use all the fuel in the first stage for lift saving nothing for landing. Keep in mind the Space Shuttle (a reusable rocket) had been flying for thirty years before Space X landed a Falcon 9.

Space X has done cool things but they are iterative developments. Tesla didn't invent electric cars or do something impossible, they iterated on existing technologies. They, like Space X, have happily and readily accepted every government subsidy dollar they're remotely qualified to receive. All while Musk is bitching about paying taxes.

> No one realistically thought reusable rockets were impossible or even infeasible.

Not addressing the point of my comment here ^, but why didn't anyone else do it if it was feasible and possible? And how long would it have taken an agency like NASA to actually start and complete the project?

> Keep in mind the Space Shuttle (a reusable rocket) had been flying for thirty years before Space X landed a Falcon 9.

Wasn't the space shuttle a glider with rockets strapped to the bottom? It was not a reusable rocket, it was a reusable shuttle.

> Space X has done cool things but they are iterative developments. Well, everything in the human existence is an iterative development, so I don't understand what you're trying to say other than to downplay other peoples' accomplishments.

https://youtu.be/mY-fSnKTLqw?t=111 <-- anyone could do it if they felt like it, right?

It is akin to Heinz trying to reuse and refill their cans of beans. Rocket engines are big disposable tin cans carrying very expensive beans.

Rocket engines are far more power intense than jet engines. Jet engines operate at over the melting point of their components for years thanks to clever design.

The fuel is quite cheap compared to the rocket that burns it.

> Not addressing the point of my comment here ^, but why didn't anyone else do it if it was feasible and possible?

Because their customers didn't need it. The medium lift space only has a few players because there's not a huge number of customers. In heavy lift there's even fewer customers.

The established players had legacy expendable stacks with a proven flight history. There was no incentive to redesign their systems to be reusable and then start fresh with a flight record.

> And how long would it have taken an agency like NASA to actually start and complete the project?

SpaceX has gotten considerable amounts of money from NASA to develop the Falcon 9. Even the video you shared is SpaceX landing their rockets at a NASA facility. SpaceX is essentially a NASA subcontractor developing a reusable rocket. So the answer to your question is whatever amount of time it's taken SpaceX to develop the reusable Falcon 9.

Like I said, SpaceX has done some cool things. I'm not trying to take away from their real accomplishments. But there's some ridiculous fanboy shit around Musk and his companies. He's done a good job of publicizing his companies' accomplishments and people seem to jump to a conclusion that they just invented concepts whole cloth that could have never existed without some magic.

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