I think, there is a possible grain of truth there.

>> If there were classified orders taking up fab space, would we ever know?

The shortages could have led to larger back-orders, and potential "double booking". Those orders is probably a trade secret, so it probably won't be easy to find out.

Just before the pandemic, everyone was optimising for zero inventory, and probably now you have a feedback loop which probably overshoots a bit in the other direction too.

You need something in half a year or a year, you likely order it right away instead of doing it just-in-time.