Indulging paranoia: If there were classified orders taking up fab space, would we ever know? Could the entire "supply chain crisis" be wartime / state led stock ups and associated coverup operations?
>> If there were classified orders taking up fab space, would we ever know?
The shortages could have led to larger back-orders, and potential "double booking". Those orders is probably a trade secret, so it probably won't be easy to find out.
Just before the pandemic, everyone was optimising for zero inventory, and probably now you have a feedback loop which probably overshoots a bit in the other direction too.
You need something in half a year or a year, you likely order it right away instead of doing it just-in-time.
Everyone at every level in the supply chain is buying six months of buffer stock. Then when normality resumes, everyone will consume their buffer stock while cancelling orders, leading to layoffs, idling, and potentially bankruptcy of component manufacturers and another induced shortage.