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> ... only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value.

Just to correct you here, the only aggressive country between these two is the Chinese side, which is "buzzing" Taiwanese airspace daily to keep them mobilized and exhausted and has built a full scale replica of central Taipei [1] in which the PLA does drills simulating its capture.

That's not peaceful, those are the heights of aggression.

If the CCP wants peace, they need to start showing it with action.

[1] https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china...

I think the GP was perfectly in line with what you're saying. They seemed to me to suggest that China will eventually invade Taiwan, and learn the hard way how bad that works out in the long run, and how costly this type of aggression is - just like the European empires learned for themselves from their own experience some few hundreds of years ago.

Yes, ofc I meant the aggressivity would come after they invade Taiwan and transform it into a colony. My English is sometimes awkward but the British could have switched to French when we invaded them. Sadly we all learned the hard way France couldnt maintain... an "aggressive colony" in England either hehehe

As a half-related aside, I think the solution is what we eventually did with the EU, a mutually assured dependency that would force everyone to keep the peace we longed for millenia, and I think the British forgot a bit too fast the vain inter massacres our ancestors rushed into at each disagreement when they yelled for Brexit to give them back their "independence".

Wish China could see it but afraid they have to try every other stupid way first :( Praying for the British and us our fishing disagreements and submarines rifraf dont escalate. Could Taiwan compromise with a soft border economic Union called the Greater China Union that would make everyone cool down ? Meh.

Independence in the quotes makes me feel concerned about the future of Europe. :-(

The CCP is not like Napoleon, bringing order out of chaos.

Hong Kong and Taiwan are way ahead of China.

Common prosperity would mean literally just leaving them alone - or even promoting and supporting their independence (!).

Healthy, free, mostly democratic and sovereign Hong Kong and Taiwan would probably be in China's best interest in every way but their nationalist view of identity. It's their choice - but let's not pretend that Hong Kong and Taiwan are gaining Napolonic bureaucracy wherein there was none before.

way ahead? On what metrics?

"leaving them alone" is straight-up naivete, especially when you consider the US military presence. I cannot imagine anyone who has seen a world map seriously advancing the idea of HK independence, it's not even what HK itself wants. Their current methods seem shortsighted and heavy-handed but China's objective of national security is eminently rational. To say it's in their best interest to leave them alone is simply absurd and clearly only accounts for Western perspectives

There is zero US military - or any other military threat related to Taiwan or Hong Kong.

While there might be some possibility of US defence of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, there is no material threat to Chinese territorial integrity otherwise - from anybody.

There's no airbases, no missiles, no naval base, no ballistic missile launch points for US forces on Taiwan.

There is zero military justification for China to invade Hong Kong or Taiwan.

The capture of Taiwan and Hong Kong is 100% a Nationalist Imperialist objective of Han Supremacy and their version of identity, history etc.

Militarily, the invasion of Taiwan is going to be extremely expensive, hugely disruptive, and will risk giant swaths of Chinese trade, their international standing and participation in so many things. In fact - it already is. China faces a great deal of pushback for their moves on both HK and Taiwan.

...

"I cannot imagine anyone who has seen a world map seriously advancing the idea of HK independence,"

There is a 100% chance, that if a choice were given to Hong Kong citizens today to either continue on the path to integrating with China - or - to be independent - they would chose independence.

Why don't we find out and give them the choice?

Hong Kong would dump China the instant they had the opportunity.

If the CCP had not moved towards controlling the political apparatus, Hong Kong would have been independent in 1997 whereupon China used the threat of violence to stop anyone from considering otherwise, as they do now: violence as the only instrument of power.

...

"way ahead? On what metrics?"

Hong Kong and Taiwan are ahead of the mainland on all metrics.

2020 GDP/capita in USD:

HK $46K Taiwan $33K China $10K

In terms of quality of life, education, healthcare, political freedoms - Hong Kong and Taiwan provide immensely better for their citizens than China ever will.

The capture of Hong Kong by China is already resulting in it's decline, the same would happen to Taiwan.

Hong Kong serves as an important financial gateway for China into the 'real world' - the only reason that financial opportunity exists is because the historical independence of Hong Kong.

No more independence - no more special financial status - and so both China and Hong Kong lose.

Really? So a deep friendship between China and Mexico would be something that the US would have no problems with? The hypocrisy is amusing. The US-Taiwan relationship is perceived as a threat, which makes complete sense from the Chinese perspective.

China has no plans of invading Hong Kong, where in the world is this nonsense from.. As for the consequences of invading Taiwan, of course. Which is why I am very certain it will not happen.

> There is a 100% chance, that if a choice were given to Hong Kong citizens today to either continue on the path to integrating with China - or - to be independent - they would chose independence.

There is no other way to describe this other than complete bullshit. There are polls. Hong Kong citizens can be communicated with. I suggest you find them and do that. And while you're at it, explain how Hong Kong will survive economically and resource-wise in this fantasy scenario. There's no point in continuing any discussion when these basic facts cannot be agreed on. This is a laughably naive idea that is only feasible through Western delusion.

Re: economic comparisons, fair enough, I let myself be dunked on by framing the question in that way. It's skewed by the long tail of rural Chinese - _especially_ in the case of Hong Kong, which cannot be fairly compared to China as a whole, but I wasn't clear. I'd just suggest looking at growth metrics instead. Taiwan and HK economic stagnation is an old story.

"explain how Hong Kong will survive economically and resource-wise in this fantasy scenario. "

? How did Hong Kong survive before 1997 without being part of China ?

? How does Singapore, a small state exist without being part of a major nation ?

How does any nation 'survive' on it's own?

The question is upside down:

Hong Kong flourished while 'not being part of China'.

Now they are going downhill as 'part of China'.

The question is 'How will Hong Kong survive now that it's under the thumb of China'.

It probably won't - it will become a much less important city.

--- "There is no other way to describe this other than complete bullshit."

This is deluded. Probably from propaganda.

To believe that the obsequious and fearful 'kowtowing' by many in Hong Kong amounts to a real expression of their will, is not reality.

There is an easy solution: give Hong Kong the right to vote for itself, and elect it's own members of government as it chooses, not chosen by the CCP.

What are you afraid of?

That people would completely reject China given the chance?

That other parts of China would want to do the same?

It's probably true, and something to consider.

> way ahead? On what metrics?

GDP/c, PPP/c, HDI, World Happiness Report, Global Health Security Index, World Press Freedom Index, ...

Source that HK does not want democracy or independence? Polling I've seen and what I've generally read is democracy is wanted by a strong majority.

simply the first result from google, among many https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-security-poll-ex...

Except what was deemed acceptable two centuries ago is no longer acceptable now.

Napooleon also abolished the Spanish Inquisition. Invading Russia was always a stupid move.

> I think the CCP is no more evil than Napoleon

The comparison is laughable. Napoleon didn't starve millions of his own citizens.