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perceptronas

I will go with most 'outrageous' predictions I can think of:

- 2022 a year of Linux desktop

- Dynamic typing becomes niche technology choice

- 'Green course' becomes less popular due high energy prices

- West decreases trade with China by a substantial amount

- Russia invades a country without admitting that

- Windows 11 becomes even more user hostile and less 'Pro'

- iPhone grabs more market share in developed world

- Laws around refugees become more strict internationally

- Matrix, Signal become mainstream. I think its close already and next year will be a breaking point.

- More substantial AI adaptation/innovation in audio engineering space

- More substantial AI adaptation/innovation in anti bot space in online spaces like social media

- Governments start to open more data

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> 2022 a year of Linux desktop

Has anything at all changed in desktop Linux space in past ~10 year to make it more user-friendly to "non-geeks"? I'm using desktop Linux and nothing comes to mind.

> Dynamic typing becomes niche technology choice

I wish!

> Russia invades a country without admitting that

Hmm, I am from that "country" and I think Russia is quite past "Little green men" stage.

At the moment they intend to instigate some thinly veiled provocation (read their statements about "it is actually Ukraine who is planning the offensive!" and "undercover American soldiers are preparing to use chemical weapons in Donbass") and go in with official "peacekeeping" mission in order to protect Russian-speaking people of Lugansk/Donetsk from bloodthirsty Ukrainian nazis. Plan B (if no good opportunity for provocation arises) is to just declare that West has crossed their "red lines" and forced their hand to invade in order to protect their security.

> Windows 11 becomes even more user hostile and less 'Pro'

Already happened?

> Laws around refugees become more strict internationally

Ditto.

>Has anything at all changed in desktop Linux space in past ~10 year to make it more user-friendly to "non-geeks"? I'm using desktop Linux and nothing comes to mind.

I meant it more as a joke as every year we expect it to be a year of Linux desktop. Nevertheless, I am quite happy with Linux these days. (I use all three OSes (Linux,Win,Mac) daily/weekly)

> Windows 11 becomes even more user hostile and less 'Pro' >>Already happened?

I think the progress is there, but I bet there are product managers already working on their KPIs to make it worse for Pro users

> I meant it more as a joke as every year we expect it to be a year of Linux desktop.

Ha! Didn't realize you were joking on this one since your other predictions seemed serious.

> Nevertheless, I am quite happy with Linux these days.

Me too.

> I meant it more as a joke as every year we expect it to be a year of Linux desktop. Nevertheless, I am quite happy with Linux these days.

Now, if only we could have a Beowulf cluster of Linux Desktops! </joke>

> ""country""

this

> Has anything at all changed in desktop Linux space in past ~10 year to make it more user-friendly to "non-geeks"?

Proton / Valve. Steamdeck will bring more people to the ecosystem than anything else. (Yes, to the desktop as well, not just the console)

> Matrix, Signal become mainstream

Which one? These two are not compatible. Besides, Signal I can see, but a possible Matrix mass adoption is probably still years away. Experiences from previous years have shown that there seems to be no incentive for a majority of users to move to decentralized protocols. Unless either WhatsApp or Signal adds compatibility, that is. Does not look like it's happening any time soon though: https://community.signalusers.org/t/make-signal-use-matrix-p...

I don't think it has to be 'either or'.

For example: iOS and Android are both mainstream and pretty much not compatible.

In 2012~2015 I was considered a "tin foil hat" type of person by my friends just because I talked about privacy and was conscious of who has access to my messages or data. Fast forward to now - a good chunk of non-tech people are genuinely scared of data collection and they start to take it seriously.

As for Matrix or Signal, at least for me both are fine. It feels extremely good that when exchanging contacts with tech related people most of the time they use either Signal or Matrix. Signal is becoming very popular between non-tech people too. I can see that a good amount of my contacts have it already.

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