Show HN: Whirrel – The Predictive Crypto Price Index

Hi,

To compensate for my lack of trading skills I started some time ago developing an algorithm for spotting changes and trends in crypto prices. The project started as an internal experiment but I made a decision of publishing one of the approaches I have been now using mostly.

The project is called "The Whirrel Index" which is a combination of price predictions squeezed into a single number that ranges from -100% (price likely to dip steeply) to 100% (price likely to rally high).

The prediction model consists of multiple neural networks that have been trained with technical indicators and price data. Each of these neural networks predicts trends and changes in future average prices in timeframes ranging from 1h to 24 hours. The Whirrel Index number is a single and simplified indicator that combines all these predictions into one number that speculates whether the price will drop up go up.

The data is updated hourly and the accuracy of the prediction models are tested by backtesting them with historic data. Currently the accuracy varies between 60% - 80% depending on the prediction model.

Imo fine tuning the algo is crucial but I'm also now working to find the most optimal strategy. The algo has not made me rich yet but has already helped me to avoid some losses and even make some small profit by knowing when to hold, sell or buy.

It's still in early stage, and as I'm not a professional trader, it would be super helpful to hear feedback especially from people who are more experienced with cryptos, trading etc.