From an outsider’s perspective, both look 100% identical.
so
A) Satoshi has other earnings, in bitcoin, that was held long enough to make Satoshi extremely rich, and sold under their normal known identity. While never needing to associate with the other identity.
B) The private keys to the bitcoin mined in those original blocks were sold for cash over the counter for very large amounts to funds with longer time horizons. Bitcoin can operate in temporarily trusted environments. Bitcoin price has tanked every time very old Bitcoin is transferred onchain, so there is no need to transfer them onchain. We would never know.
its all fruitless to speculate
Even if the value tanks it'll still be a ton of money.
So you’re right and we would never be able to prove that any amount has changed hands or not, only assume that others wouldn't take the risk
Sure, it is a network based on trust. But the whole idea of bitcoin's principle of trust is that you trust the majority of an entire community.
By making a deal with a single party for their wallet credentials you have to trust only the seller. One single party. In a shady deal involving a fortune.
And like I said, who would spend obviously phenomenal amounts on something and then never even touch it? When the buyer could simply move that trust from one party to the community simply by transferring the balance to a new wallet.
Of course the ripples in bitcoin's value would be unprecedented. But the buyer would hold so much of it that one way or another they would be extremely rich.
I'm not really talking about the sharing of keys in general by the way. Just about the thought of Satoshi's genesis wallet keys being sold this way.
Which “weird unknown hardware”. Early in Bitcoin, you could just mine bitcoin with any CPU — you still can.
A.) That’s a possibility.
B.) As someone mentioned already, this doesn’t make sense from a trust and security standpoint. Yet discarding this possibility doesn’t prove that (A) is what really happened.