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Comment by zpeti | Hacker News Reader

> For now it is going mostly as predicted by the 'remain' camp, the 'leave' camp have a bit of a problem maintaining their credibility.

Let me know some specifics. If you look at banking, the EU has failed to make any major dent in London as a financial centre. Bank headquarters have not moved. Bankers have not moved. London still rules the financial world.

Also interesting to see is the other side, what the EU has progressed to since then. The new German government is saying they want full federalisation. Exactly what the leave camp was saying. Things certainly seem to be going that way. Moves to establish EU army. Strong arming of Hungary and Poland, overstepping the legal mandates of the EU some argue. So what exactly in this case did leave get wrong?

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That's irrelevant. What happens to the city is not going to keep the UK afloat in the long term.

The attempt to reposition the UK as a tax shelter is going to make a very small group of people extremely rich but for the average UK citizen it won't matter one bit.

Financial services is 6.9% of UK GDP, probably more now as covid has affected things like tourism.

Irrelevant?

Please back up your argument with more than just claiming that the state of financial services is irrelevant to the UK, and that it's about tax sheltering. I think you've been reading one side of a political argument for a long time.

Yes, it is irrelevant. Financial services are not enough to keep the UK running. The UK is a large net exporter, and all of its sectors are hurting.

The financial services arm of the UK is the major moving force behind Brexit in the first place, they did that knowing full well that the rest of the country would suffer. It won't take forever for people to realize this.

It is not a net exporter and has not been for some time.

Correct, should have dropped the 'net'.

Also, the financial services in the main were solid remain. One or two high profile hedge fund managers do not an industry make.

Plenty of money was spent to try to convince the more gullible segment of the UK populace that their future would be rosy if the UK could go it alone, and a lot of that came from the wealthiest segments of the country. The financial services industry was worried that Frankfurt or even Amsterdam or Paris might take the crown, which for the most part hasn't happened.

And with multi-nationals such as Shell moving to the UK the balance is shifting further away from where it should be, now the UK will act as a de-facto tax shelter in all but name because it can afford to offer these companies great terms, after all, they have nothing to lose.

In terms of money, again money was predominantly on the remainer side. But then any money going to support leave would be the dumb money right?

> But then any money going to support leave would be the dumb money right

Depends on where the money ultimately comes from. e.g. it would be smart for Russia to fund leave.

"more gullible"

No surprise they wanted to separate.

As for the tax game, that is something that has not happened. In my view, and in the view of a large section of the party in government, it will not. The government rhetoric to address regional inequality and to address long term issues with health and old age provision that have not been addressed. These are things that could have an affect on whether they get re-elected. That and government office parties during covid lockdown

> As for the tax game, that is something that has not happened.

It is happening as we speak.

Sure. Point me at the evidence. I am aware of a raise in the corporation tax levels.

The UK has no choice but to go the low tax/low regulation route, not only for finance but to attract any sort of business.

Why would a business decide to move the UK instead of the EU? They have to offer something that makes being outside of the single market worth it.

The UK is already much more business friendly than most EU countries (I haven't many companies rushing to move from the UK to France if they did not really, really have too, for instance) but not being in the EU/single market can be a serious drawback.

The EU also knows this and that's a reason the negotiations on single market access have been tense as too good an access without being bound to EU control would mean letting the wolf in.

Agreed they have no choice. But this race to the bottom has only losers, in the end companies should just pay their taxes and the UK facilitating this is not going to make any friends. The channel islands was bad enough.

> If you look at banking, the EU has failed to make any major dent in London as a financial centre

The EU is in no rush, but it's clear that EU banking is going to move to EU centres in the long run of a decade or so. They have said as much (1) This is no act of charity to London bankers, it's in the EU's best interest to move, but move gradually to sites in the EU.

1) https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/global-financial-industry-u...

Interesting perspective that it's perhaps British common law that is attractive to businesses https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/25/return-commo...

British common law and business friendly environments are utterly irrelevant to Euro clearing, and where the EU lets it happen.

London is no longer in the EU and that's all there is to it. Moving this business to EU locations is only a matter of time and orderly transition.

The Amsterdam stock market is now larger than the London one, for the first time in living memory.

> Strong arming of Hungary and Poland, ...

They are not being strong armed, they are being treated with way to lot consideration, given that they are ignoring the treaties they signed.

Especially Orban in Hungary is basically a robber Baron, and if the EU doesn't move against his BS strongly, they will lose support in the other countries.

Fyi, the eu has bent over backwards not to force anyone to move. Esma and bafin have basically handed licenses to anyone arriving at Frankfurt airport and required minimal staffing locally.

How long they keep doing that is another matter. They're already moving euro clearing out of London. The sensible, European, approach is just that: don't force people to move en mass on some crappy time line. Make people move 5% a year for 20 years.

Smooth and manageable.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-ruling-euro-clea...

I have no clue how you got strong-arming of Hungary and Poland, two countries that signed treaties they refuse to honor. If they want to be in the EU they don't get to pick and choose which laws and regulations apply to them

Banking doesnt get you anywhere with a frustrated workforce

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