I am willing to bet that quantum supremacy for some actually useful computation is not going to happen in this decade.
Run enough times, find the statistically satisfying minima or maxima or point of interest. Mainly it's about coherence and noise. Stable qbits are like Noah's cubits: hard to find.
ubiquitous RSA factoring in nanoseconds? Don't personally think so. Specific key finding for post-hoc analysis? Dunno, but not in 2022 or by 2030 (to agree with you)