I wonder if these simulations do more harm. Like it gives people a false sense of security and locks them into a strategy. I think the best illustration for this is covid. Our leaders and experts threw away the pandemic playbook and replaced it with this new strategy of using novel precision vaccine technology and having a near singular focus on getting people vaccinated. As time goes on, it seems more and more like a failure. But we are basically stuck. We are not responding to ANY signals that this is a bad strategy.

We need strategy that has the ability to be flexible. It needs to be based on outcome. These simulations incorrectly teach people that the strategy is the goal, instead of aiming towards an outcome. For example, reducing hospitalization and deaths isn't the goal with current covid policy. The goal is to vaccinate as many people as possible.