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Comment by j_col | Hacker News Reader

> And software was the cause of failure.

How so?

Too late, no momentum, no real innovations. Just one Javascript/node.js hype is not enough to push to the market a new product, that should compete with iOS and Android.

Try to imagine how big Android is today and what momentum it has.

Momentum that even Google has no control over, and it likely to pull the platform apart into multiple branches (fragmentation). Just look at what Amazon has planned for their new 7" tablet for example, it will be hardly recognisable as Android. They are stripping out all of the Google services and branding. As another example, look at what Baidu are planning to do with Android in China. Again, a completely different branch of Android is forming, it's like desktop Linux all over again (and we all remember how well that went when it came to dislodging Windows).

It you had said that iOS had won, I would have thought fair enough (as much as it pains me that iOS currently represents the future of mobile computing), but Android? Really?

I agree that iOS has won but the "fragmentation" issue that was spouted since day one is way over sensationalized. If Amazon strips out all of the Google products it shouldn't be considered "Android" but the first true branch. It again reinforces how open Google and Android are.

I agree that it is the first true branch, with more to come. Is Android becoming a mobile OS kernal, rather than a full-stack OS?

> Again, a completely different branch of Android is forming, it's like desktop Linux all over again (and we all remember how well that went when it came to dislodging Windows).

I for one am optimistic though, as Google-branded Android already is in commanding market position. I think these non-cooperating Android distributions might serve as a good motivator for Google to improve their work.

Where there will be at times small or major fragmentation in the branding, Android app development is still the unifying factor, and while apps are still the name of the game in town, Android will gradually gain strengthen.

IOS vs. Android is almost the same story as Win 2000 vs. Linux 10 years ago, don't you see? Community of active developers, not mere consumers, is what matters. At least I believe it is Google's strategy. ^_^

And fragmentation issues will self-resolve, as it was in modern Linux world - only strongest will survive. And the winner is Ubuntu, like it or not. Community matters.

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